Re: Banter Thread 6.0

by **amugs** Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:09 pm

sroc4 wrote:Keep in mind too that with our magnetic poles on the move and the earths magnetic field weakening over time, weaker geomagnetic storms are having more profound effects on earths systems. Think of it like earth used to wear 50 spf sunscreen top protect itself from the sun, but now the earth is only wearing 10. The earth is not nearly as protected.

So true Scott. We have had 2 near X flare misses so far. But two M class strong flares that abused disruption in Europe and Asia to their communications. Some issues, minor, with the grid.
It's not a matter of if but when peeps.
We have SOOOOO many geomagnetic, galactical, planetary anomalous happening its hard to keep track of.
Great video Sroc and thanks for sharing.

by **amugs** Thu Jul 15, 2021 11:05 pm

Too early to talk SSW?

For the 2nd month in a row, there is a signal for a weaker-than-normal stratospheric polar vortex in Nov-Dec.

Indicated by several models, this can increase the chance for polar air masses to seep southward during early-mid winter

Has my attention! pic.twitter.com/sqNOieqouX
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 15, 2021

by **frank 638** Fri Jul 16, 2021 9:27 am

amugs wrote:
Too early to talk SSW?

For the 2nd month in a row, there is a signal for a weaker-than-normal stratospheric polar vortex in Nov-Dec.

Indicated by several models, this can increase the chance for polar air masses to seep southward during early-mid winter

Has my attention! pic.twitter.com/sqNOieqouX
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 15, 2021

Thank God thanks for the update I cannot wait till the summer is over because it has been very humid and hot and rainy

by **amugs** Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:22 pm

WOW did planer Earth Get L U C K Y!!. How u ask? There was a massive CME Flare that went off yesterday and would have been a major > mean major electrical Friday issue for the region of the planet that would have took this on the chin.
Again not a matter of if but when peeps.
Oh and no Gov't can shield us from the life of our planet and us human....Mr. Sun.

by **sroc4** Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:40 pm

amugs wrote:WOW did planer Earth Get L U C K Y!!. How u ask? There was a massive CME Flare that went off yesterday and would have been a major > mean major electrical Friday issue for the region of the planet that would have took this on the chin.
Again not a matter of if but when peeps.
Oh and no Gov't can shield us from the life of our planet and us human....Mr. Sun.

by **amugs** Sun Jul 18, 2021 6:30 pm

Here is EXACTLY what Sroc and I have been harping on. We are in no certain terms out of this and have gotten extremely lucky 2x this week. I posted on this earlier this week as well but this quick video explains this greatly.

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:28 pm

hmmm. we had trouble with cell service in this area yesterday, coincidence?

by **sroc4** Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:09 pm

In a time when earths weather is a bit boring here is some interesting info about how we are furthering our understanding of space weather. Fascinating stuff if you ask me.

by **sroc4** Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:53 am

Going back to 2014 Ive been archiving the SSTA snap shots. Ideally I was trying to save the snap shots quarterly, but unfort in recent years I havent done a great job remembering to do so. Either way here are the snap shots from 2014-2021. Unfort I didnt save any snapshots from 2020 and some of the years I didnt save July specifically. Still pretty cool to see the changes over time.

1 - Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 15 Global12

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by **amugs** Sun Aug 01, 2021 7:48 pm

Article from July 28:

“THE NEXT 30 YEARS WILL BE COLD,” SAYS CLIMATE SCIENTIST DR. WILLIE SOON

"If you want to face a serious problem, worry about an ice age, never worry about global warming."#GrandSolarMinimum https://t.co/z8xEs05bEb
— Electroverse (@Electroversenet) July 31, 2021

Prominent scientist who has been studying the climate for decades

by **amugs** Tue Aug 03, 2021 11:40 am

Crop Issues going to be another compounding problem as we move forward to the fall. South America crops of corn, wheat and #1 exporter of coffee got ravaged by the cold Antarctic air. Massive China floods, American drought out west and in the Northern Plains. Just keep an eye on this. Pressure being felt already by future markets for each of these products.

https://electroverse.net/wheat-farmer-woes-decimated-corn-crops-no-feed-for-livestock-what-will-we-eat/

by **dkodgis** Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:28 pm

Oh boy!

https://www.cnn.com/?refresh=1

by **amugs** Sun Aug 08, 2021 9:52 am

Who wants a fast start to winter???

High latitude blocking showing up in time for winter on the ECMWF seasonal

Could be part of the early season SSW signal that's been on the model for the last few months...

Fast start to winter? pic.twitter.com/VEEnV0M5pb
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) August 6, 2021

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Aug 08, 2021 11:30 am

amugs wrote:Who wants a fast start to winter???
High latitude blocking showing up in time for winter on the ECMWF seasonal

Could be part of the early season SSW signal that's been on the model for the last few months...

Fast start to winter? pic.twitter.com/VEEnV0M5pb
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) August 6, 2021

the question is when?? how fast?? not looking forward to more 90 degree days this week..

by **frank 638** Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:11 pm

amugs wrote:Who wants a fast start to winter???
High latitude blocking showing up in time for winter on the ECMWF seasonal

Could be part of the early season SSW signal that's been on the model for the last few months...

Fast start to winter? pic.twitter.com/VEEnV0M5pb
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) August 6, 2021

trust me I do And I am so happy we are getting closer to autumn. I also noticed some of the trees starting to change colors not a lot but some.

by **amugs** Sun Aug 15, 2021 7:54 pm

And this bad boy is makes an entrance with BOOM peeps 53k is stratospheric level VEI 4 there.

Fukutoku-Okanoba Volcano (Japan) Observations Confirmed 16 km Plume From... https://t.co/tZHABjy7bp via @YouTube
— Oppenheimer Ranch Project (@Diamondthedave) August 15, 2021

by **amugs** Sun Aug 22, 2021 5:01 pm

Catastrophic Floods Decimate Two Tennessee Towns; 10 Killed, Dozens Missing | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/catastrophic-floods-decimate-two-tennessee-towns-10-killed-dozens-missing

As we were tracking Henri
[url=Catastrophic Floods Decimate Two Tennessee Towns; 10 Killed, Dozens Missing | ZeroHedge https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/catastrophic-floods-decimate-two-tennessee-towns-10-killed-dozens-missing]Catastrophic Floods Decimate Two Tennessee Towns; 10 Killed, Dozens Missing | ZeroHedge https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/catastrophic-floods-decimate-two-tennessee-towns-10-killed-dozens-missing[/url]

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Aug 23, 2021 7:52 am

Wow this year is flying by. Only 100 days till meteorological winter. Does anyone have some early thoughts what on what might be in store for us?

by **Scullybutcher** Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:28 am

I’ll take Sw jump into SE NY for $100 Alex. Lol

by **amugs** Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:34 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow this year is flying by. Only 100 days till meteorological winter. Does anyone have some early thoughts what on what might be in store for us?

JB believes fast start with weak Nina, -QBO, IOD, PDO and NAO/AO couplet. I see a somewhat repeat of last year as a possibility.
Some analog years being talked about as a comparison to this year are1989, 2005, 2010, and of course 1995. Back to back Weak Nina's usually means a fast start and a N NAO with a relaxation then a second period of winter. More info to come but looking at the info on the table now is how it looks

by **essexcountypete** Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:55 am

I hate to bash the Weather Channel, since they have improved over the last few years, but the absence of reporting on what was happening in NJ during the storm was glaring. Even after they sent everyone home yesterday from all their remote reporting sites all over New England, they still had a guy in Bridgeport talking about how calm it was, how little damage there was, and how they could see Long Island, all while half a foot of rain fell on NJ and there was flooding all over the state. They were still reporting power outages from CT, NY and Mass last night, even as NJ had thousands without power. I get that the predictions were for impact in New England, but it was clear early Sunday that what was happening in NJ was serious and significant, and that New England was going to be spared.

by **frank 638** Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:11 am

I am ready for the fall I cannot stand this heat no more

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:25 am

frank 638 wrote:I am ready for the fall I cannot stand this heat no more

Right there with you!!!

by **amugs** Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:57 am

Look what I spy with my little eye???

1 - Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 15 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_64

THE 540 LINE!!! WOO HOOOO!

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:30 am

I am supposed to go to a few town wide garare sales in jersey early tomorrow morning do you think major roadways will be open, not sure of exact route one town is hopatcon, I think thats how u spell it one is florham park and the other is Carteret, am leaning to go to Carteret. What do you guys think? This is my way of coursing for my ebay store and it is my relaxation fun on the weekends so to not go would be a big bummer but I also do not want to be stuck in hours of traffic, or re-routing in places I do not know. GPS yesterday did not know certain roads were closed so I had a hard time getting around.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:48 am

jmanley32 wrote: I am supposed to go to a few town wide garare sales in jersey early tomorrow morning do you think major roadways will be open, not sure of exact route one town is hopatcon, I think thats how u spell it one is florham park and the other is Carteret, am leaning to go to Carteret. What do you guys think? This is my way of coursing for my ebay store and it is my relaxation fun on the weekends so to not go would be a big bummer but I also do not want to be stuck in hours of traffic, or re-routing in places I do not know. GPS yesterday did not know certain roads were closed so I had a hard time getting around.

my parents lived by Hopatcong. It is a straight shot up route 80..my sister lives in the area and said the roads were fine by her after the storm. She went to work yesterday and said all fine and she comes down route 80 to Caldwell. I do not know the other areas conditions. Other than Florham Park is prone to flooding.

Also just read Carteret got almost 10 inches of rain..

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:50 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote: I am supposed to go to a few town wide garare sales in jersey early tomorrow morning do you think major roadways will be open, not sure of exact route one town is hopatcon, I think thats how u spell it one is florham park and the other is Carteret, am leaning to go to Carteret. What do you guys think? This is my way of coursing for my ebay store and it is my relaxation fun on the weekends so to not go would be a big bummer but I also do not want to be stuck in hours of traffic, or re-routing in places I do not know. GPS yesterday did not know certain roads were closed so I had a hard time getting around.
my parents lived by Hopatcong. It is a straight shot up route 80..my sister lives in the area and said the roads were fine by her after the storm. She went to work yesterday and said all fine and she comes down route 80 to Caldwell. I do not know the other areas conditions. Other than Florham Park is prone to flooding.

Also just read Carteret got almost 10 inches of rain..

Interesting, Carteret has not said they canceled it, maybe they are waiting till today to decide. Thanks for the info.

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