December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Great video rb, thanks! It was easy to understand and very interesting to watch!

RB love the video(not the possible outcome)...was easy to understand all the technical information with your explanations!!

The Atlantic ridge on the 06Z GFS a little less robust. Each successive run seems to get more relaxed and its surface map continues to take a turn towards other guidance like Euro and CAN. If the ridge is like what Euro and CAN depict then the storm can more easily escape OTS. I will wait for 00Z and better yet 12Z tomorrow before I go one way or the other.

Great example of how even the ugliest 500mb view could still produce a snowy outcome for our area.



There’s enough interaction with the northern and southern jet to pop a low along the coast, despite the lack of western ridging. However, I can easily see how the south and east scenario plays out given the lack of amplification across the CONUS. The critical player in all of this is the HP to the north. Keep him stationary and it forces consolidation along the coast.

Seperate thread to discuss model runs for this threat.  ??

Concur.
We won't no true details until we get full sampling tonight IMO. Mondays systems plays a crucial role into how the secondary storm turns out. Drag the boundary South to the Delmarvaish region game on drag it to SNJ more N&W. That to me is the Playa here.
But those juiced up GFS runs and GEFS runs yesterday were

Strong Cold Front moves through around 6-7PM - rain and strong gusty winds - 40mph gusts possible. This sets up Wednesdays system. IF clouds break these clouds for a couple of hours we can hit DOC's favorite decade - 60!

Those N&W should be on the lookout for additional wintry precip on Friday morning. Some models showing snow showers mixed with sleet/freezing rain.

Frank_Wx wrote:Those N&W should be on the lookout for additional wintry precip on Friday morning. Some models showing snow showers mixed with sleet/freezing rain.

Sunday into Monday morning might be a doozy with a strong anafront/LP from the Southern Apps. IF GFS is correct winds upwards of 40-45mph with heavy rains and and then a 20 degree temperature drop in about an hours to snows on the back side.

Geez Louise the wind is rocking out there. 55 mph. Temp is 51 but man o man the wind is prominent. Roaring.

House is making those "ooooo" noises and the garbage cans are on the move. Winds are kicking.

Trees down in the next town over as winds just kicked up a few minutes ago.

Wind just starting to pick up, gusting to 20mph

Wow, those winds came fast and fierce, had to be 50mph. Totally destroyed the garbage, the neighborhood is littered with everyones garbage and the garbage men will NOT pick it up. If a bag or boxes are even 5 inches from the drop spots they wont take it. I mean everywhere yards, and street is more garbage and boxes than pavement, disgusting. usually I like wind but this just made the area look like a toxic wasteland. now we need a decent amount of snow to cover it up until it eventually decomposes or the street cleaner MAY be able to pick some of it up.

frank 638 wrote:Wow heavy wind driven rain now

ya, is it garbage night in the bronx? As I posted yonkers look like a dump just got poured over it.... : (

amugs wrote:Strong Cold Front moves through around 6-7PM - rain and strong gusty winds - 40mph gusts possible. This sets up Wednesdays system. IF clouds break these clouds for a couple of hours we can hit DOC's favorite decade - 60!

Bump

Did I sleep through this wind? I don’t believe any of you

Frank_Wx wrote:Did I sleep through this wind? I don’t believe any of you

Are you joking? You must go to bed early if you did not hear the gust front, it was around 8:30-9:15 here so would been before that for you.

Very light snowflakes down at Exit 80 of the garden state parkway. Yaaay!!!

Maybe Zoo??

amugs wrote:Maybe Zoo??

Would love it! Just watching the radar now, seeing a few lines of snow showers making it's way here.

Been snowing here since 7PM at 34*

Saturday wind gusts since it will verify due to the strong cold front moving through after the warm surge of air.

No torch for NWNJ for sure - Sat Sunday yes but the rest of the week - AN yes but no torch

Wow, has anyone else ever seen them go to TORCON 7? And this will be rolling through at night!