December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Normal Christmas Day high low in the HV is 36/18 right now we’re looking at a Christmas Day high of 46. I’m really growing tired of these crappy December’s. 1/4 of winter down the drain and unfortunately my favorite winter month which more and more seems to succumb to the negatives of our changing climate. December’s just not what it used to be.

Will not be posting much this year as I just find these patterns that we get stuck in for what seems like an eternity just frustrate the Hell out of me. Hopefully the January flip happens but not holding my breath. Merry Christmas and and Happy New Year to all.

It’s officially winter when I see you post CP, glad to see you back even if we are stuck in a crappy pattern currently, hoping we turn the tides as we progress into the new year.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Normal Christmas Day high low in the HV is 36/18 right now we’re looking at a Christmas Day high of 46. I’m really growing tired of these crappy December’s. 1/4 of winter down the drain and unfortunately my favorite winter month which more and more seems to succumb to the negatives of our changing climate. December’s just not what it used to be.

Will not be posting much this year as I just find these patterns that we get stuck in for what seems like an eternity just frustrate the Hell out of me. Hopefully the January flip happens but not holding my breath. Merry Christmas and and Happy New Year to all.

Good to see you back my good man, the board was about to organize a search party for you.Glad you are ok and agree with the frustrating pattern as well.I posted in banter what a front end winter is like (1960-1961) which is not this year, but , remember, hope is a good thing.The best Christmas and New Years for you and your loved ones.Our gift will be if that pattern lights up like a candle and gives us megasnows in the LHV.

OK,Damian, you owe me on that "when CP returns date.I had Dec 3 marked down, you were in late November.Stake me 10 bucks on that poker game some day and we will be square,LOL.BTW, as per your post above, if I came home lster than 10, my wife would bar the doors,LOL.

Great to hear from you cp! Now, the missing piece to a winter wonderland is here! One of my professors in college told us about the CP rule. It’s like the opposite of Groundhog Day: Winter weather officially starts 2-3 weeks after CP’s first post of the winter season! Sweet!

Good to hear from you CP. The pattern does suck, but the good news is we will be breaking out of it shortly after New Years. Some snow threats even possible before then.

AO is already in negative territory at -1 sigma. Projected to go to to -3 sigma by NYD. Let's see how long the ground remains bare with this rapid drop in what I would say is the most important indicator or wintry weather chances. To put it into perspective the AO was +3 sigma and we all can see the results of that.

Glad to see you CP.

16.2 was low this morning with excellent radiational cooling effect. This is the coldest reading of the season to date.

19 for my low - and boy did it feel like winter!!

Xmas Miracle - reel this in please!!
LOL

amugs wrote:19 for my low - and boy did it feel like winter!!

Xmas Miracle - reel this in please!!
LOL

Please That will be the best Xmas

This is a hot mess with that PNA the way it is for Christmas morning.  But the blocking and that 50/50 low (will be an intense storm that clobbers Maine) make me think this SE ridge may not be so strong.  If the ridge is just a bit more relaxed the precip can come into much colder air.  I would say those NW of 95 keep on eye on it.  AO is also almost 2 sigma in the neg territory.  This is late December and it has snowed with worse looks than that.  

Although snow showers are possible Thursday night into early Christmas Eve, it appears Christmas Day is going to bring overcast and rainy conditions. Not the type of weather I was hoping for 

There’s a chance the rain turns to snow N&W of NYC going into Sunday. There’s also a slim chance this wave trends further south and N&W stays all snow, but I’m putting those odds at very low right now.

Hearing of icy conditions at and above (North) of I 84 this morning. Anyone confirm?

amugs wrote:Hearing of icy conditions at and above (North) of I 84 this morning. Anyone confirm?

Some schools in Monticello and that area had delayed openings, heard Washingtonville area was bad too.

It got bad last night. This morning here in northern Orange County, a two-hour delay. Icy. 84 coming into Orange from PA was shut down overnight for a while. Still icy on the blacktop. Roads here this morning are hit and miss. A glaze. Funny to see the dog skating while trying to walk

No ice here in Monroe NY, may have been light rain.Cloudy now.Interesting weather for up here Friday night-Sunday morning, snow, sleet, rain.Hopefully ground gets coated for Christmas Day.

This is just incredible Nature's Fury !!!

Scour marks from Mayfield closely resembles the Orf simulation. Amazing.

Photo from @brianemfinger pic.twitter.com/5sEW2Mo9uB

— SRRadarLoops (@LoopsSr) December 21, 2021

This won't be clean or a good setup.  However there are a lot of shortwaves running across the country that have some colder air to work with as the AO continues its negative trend.  How much cold air bleeds into the area and stays long enough is a question but NW of I95 will probably see some snow between Christmas and NYD.  I don't expect anything more than light event.  Possible coastal plain gets a bit too.

Come to Poppa!!

This winter has sucked so far but I'm hoping for better things by 2nd week of January.

hyde345 wrote:This winter has sucked so far but I'm hoping for better things by 2nd week of January.

We said the same in 2014-15, last year as well and 2013-14. Trust in Rb!!

I was looking at snow tables for the northeast and it's amazing how consistently below 43.5N latitude crap patterns just destroy norms. But actually above that latitude snowfall is fairly close to average. It's all about tolerance to less than ideal synoptic conditions that makes the difference I guess.

Looking like the same pissant, annoying setup late tonight where moisture freezes and a glaze of ice suddenly appears.

If Euro is right this is probably the biggest snowfall IMBY of the season.  Now if it was November 23 I'd have no issue with that.  NW of I95 surface probably cold enough to support a dusting.

Looking forward to up to an inch tonight. Beggars can't be choosers.