January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

billg315 wrote:On 12z GFS the 700 level vorticity seems to be along the I-95 and then across Long Island before moving to Cape Cod. Any thoughts on that placement Heehaw?

My guess is it swings NW of I95 right into Hudson Valley and then blasts through NJ/NYC/LI. Eastern LI would have a legit shot at > 6" as the storm will be intensifying. If NW-I95 misses that band though then this will be closer to 2-3" for NW of I-95 even with ratios. I guess that's what makes this hobby fun though

12z GFS

aiannone wrote:12z GFS

yuck 2.6 for me? I mean it is better than nothing but hoping we can get more. is that further east west or par for course?

heehaw453 wrote:This is the temperature at the 700mb altitude. The dgz (dendritic growth zone) is most weighted to this altitude as it's where snow crystals are formed.  Humidity and temperature are very important at this altitude for snow growth.  I think ratios with this are going to be good even closer to the coast with that banana high. That could add an inch or two to a normal 10:1.

Careful here, heehaw. The DGZ is dynamic, and based exclusively on where forcing for ascent is maximized within the thermal range(s) for dendrite development. You have two thermal ranges for optimal dendritic growth; 0°C to -3°C, and then -10° to about -22°C.



Keep in mind, that both the thermal and dynamical components to this equation are fluid within a storm, both temporally and vertically, so I’ll let you determine how to best approach forecasting crystal formation tendencies, accumulation efficiencies, and accumulations from there. A magician can’t divulge all his secrets :p besides, figuring those secrets out is where all the fun is anyway haha

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is the temperature at the 700mb altitude. The dgz (dendritic growth zone) is most weighted to this altitude as it's where snow crystals are formed.  Humidity and temperature are very important at this altitude for snow growth.  I think ratios with this are going to be good even closer to the coast with that banana high. That could add an inch or two to a normal 10:1.

Careful here, heehaw. The DGZ is dynamic, and based exclusively on where forcing for ascent is maximized within the thermal range(s) for dendrite development. You have two thermal ranges for optimal dendritic growth; 0°C to -3°C, and then -10° to about -22°C.

https://images.app.goo.gl/mJYnBvnCpSy1zTzM7

Keep in mind, that both the thermal and dynamical components to this equation are fluid within a storm, both temporally and vertically, so I’ll let you determine how to best approach forecasting crystal formation tendencies, accumulation efficiencies, and accumulations from there. A magician can’t divulge all his secrets :p besides, figuring those secrets out is where all the fun is anyway haha

I would defer to you on that as our resident met But do you see ratios being 10:1?

After this lengthy snow drought up here, I will be happy to see two inches!
Before I joined the Channel 7 Weatherboard way back in the early 2000's, I never even looked at any storm that was not forecast to be at least over a foot.Now, the snowaholic in me has been brought out with our Board where even a snow flurry gets me going.It's like giving an alcoholic a key to a liquor store.

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is the temperature at the 700mb altitude. The dgz (dendritic growth zone) is most weighted to this altitude as it's where snow crystals are formed.  Humidity and temperature are very important at this altitude for snow growth.  I think ratios with this are going to be good even closer to the coast with that banana high. That could add an inch or two to a normal 10:1.

Careful here, heehaw. The DGZ is dynamic, and based exclusively on where forcing for ascent is maximized within the thermal range(s) for dendrite development. You have two thermal ranges for optimal dendritic growth; 0°C to -3°C, and then -10° to about -22°C.

https://images.app.goo.gl/mJYnBvnCpSy1zTzM7

Keep in mind, that both the thermal and dynamical components to this equation are fluid within a storm, both temporally and vertically, so I’ll let you determine how to best approach forecasting crystal formation tendencies, accumulation efficiencies, and accumulations from there. A magician can’t divulge all his secrets :p besides, figuring those secrets out is where all the fun is anyway haha

Ray Id love a lesson in this one day. Admittedly this is not my strong suite.

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is the temperature at the 700mb altitude. The dgz (dendritic growth zone) is most weighted to this altitude as it's where snow crystals are formed.  Humidity and temperature are very important at this altitude for snow growth.  I think ratios with this are going to be good even closer to the coast with that banana high. That could add an inch or two to a normal 10:1.

Careful here, heehaw. The DGZ is dynamic, and based exclusively on where forcing for ascent is maximized within the thermal range(s) for dendrite development. You have two thermal ranges for optimal dendritic growth; 0°C to -3°C, and then -10° to about -22°C.

https://images.app.goo.gl/mJYnBvnCpSy1zTzM7

Keep in mind, that both the thermal and dynamical components to this equation are fluid within a storm, both temporally and vertically, so I’ll let you determine how to best approach forecasting crystal formation tendencies, accumulation efficiencies, and accumulations from there. A magician can’t divulge all his secrets :p besides, figuring those secrets out is where all the fun is anyway haha

I would defer to you on that as our resident met  But do you see ratios being 10:1?

Without actually doing a full synoptic and meso-scale analysis, pulling up various soundings and crunching the numbers, I don’t want to speak too concretely, but 10:1 when you’re snowing with near 528dm thicknesses seems awfully low. 12-15:1 overall seems much better in my opinion. Now, remember, just because you have higher ratios doesn’t necessarily mean that you have higher accumulation efficiency, as you could have 20:1 ratios, but if you’re producing columns and needles as your crystals then you won’t accumulate squat lol they don’t stack well; they pack. So, I while I think the ratios will be 12-15:1 overall, I want to be clear that I can’t really comment on the accumulation efficiency/expected totals because I haven’t done a full analysis/forecast.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is the temperature at the 700mb altitude. The dgz (dendritic growth zone) is most weighted to this altitude as it's where snow crystals are formed.  Humidity and temperature are very important at this altitude for snow growth.  I think ratios with this are going to be good even closer to the coast with that banana high. That could add an inch or two to a normal 10:1.

Careful here, heehaw. The DGZ is dynamic, and based exclusively on where forcing for ascent is maximized within the thermal range(s) for dendrite development. You have two thermal ranges for optimal dendritic growth; 0°C to -3°C, and then -10° to about -22°C.

https://images.app.goo.gl/mJYnBvnCpSy1zTzM7

Keep in mind, that both the thermal and dynamical components to this equation are fluid within a storm, both temporally and vertically, so I’ll let you determine how to best approach forecasting crystal formation tendencies, accumulation efficiencies, and accumulations from there. A magician can’t divulge all his secrets :p besides, figuring those secrets out is where all the fun is anyway haha

Ray Id love a lesson in this one day.  Admittedly this is not my strong suite.  

A lesson in………..lapse rates or snowfall ratios/crystal formation tendencies? Lol your image is of lapse rates, so I’m not sure which topic you’re referencing haha

Thanks for the lesson here Ray. Always appreciated


I know we’re talking semantics, but I’m feeling comfortable with saying 2-4 as opposed to 3-6 because my opinion is 2-4 covers majority of our members, whereas 3-6 is really just coastal NJ and Long Island.

from Joe Rao, retired Met from Fios... talking dry air and virga again for NNJ. What do you all think?

"12km North American Model (NAM), that when the R1 level of relative humidity – that is, that sampling of the atmosphere from 1,500-feet down to ground level – registers less than 80%, that precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. And the latest 12Z guidance run of the NAM FOUS shows that for LaGuardia Airport, that section of the atmosphere will not “moisten-up” enough to allow for a steady snowfall until sometime around 4 a.m. on Friday."

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is the temperature at the 700mb altitude. The dgz (dendritic growth zone) is most weighted to this altitude as it's where snow crystals are formed.  Humidity and temperature are very important at this altitude for snow growth.  I think ratios with this are going to be good even closer to the coast with that banana high. That could add an inch or two to a normal 10:1.

Careful here, heehaw. The DGZ is dynamic, and based exclusively on where forcing for ascent is maximized within the thermal range(s) for dendrite development. You have two thermal ranges for optimal dendritic growth; 0°C to -3°C, and then -10° to about -22°C.

https://images.app.goo.gl/mJYnBvnCpSy1zTzM7

Keep in mind, that both the thermal and dynamical components to this equation are fluid within a storm, both temporally and vertically, so I’ll let you determine how to best approach forecasting crystal formation tendencies, accumulation efficiencies, and accumulations from there. A magician can’t divulge all his secrets :p besides, figuring those secrets out is where all the fun is anyway haha

Ray Id love a lesson in this one day.  Admittedly this is not my strong suite.  

A lesson in………..lapse rates or snowfall ratios/crystal formation tendencies? Lol your image is of lapse rates, so I’m not sure which topic you’re referencing haha

Sorry. snowfall ratios and crystal formation tendancies and how to utilize the sounding to determine the ratio at a give local. Ive seen the basic tables that show between this temp and this temp on the surface you get this ratio etc, but I know there are nuances that can be found using the soundings. The lapse rate map is just to show that over the top IMBY are nice steep lapse rates indicating pretty sweet snow fall rates during that time stamp.

Dunnzoo wrote:from Joe Rao, retired Met from Fios... talking dry air and virga again for NNJ. What do you all think?

"12km North American Model (NAM), that when the R1 level of relative humidity – that is, that sampling of the atmosphere from 1,500-feet down to ground level – registers less than 80%, that precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. And the latest 12Z guidance run of the NAM FOUS shows that for LaGuardia Airport, that section of the atmosphere will not “moisten-up” enough to allow for a steady snowfall until sometime around 4 a.m. on Friday."

The last storm, the cold dry air kept the snow below Central Jersey, so this estimate may well pan out.Hoping it doesn't, but sometimes cold ,dry air is not the snow lovers friend. Suppression depression.

docstox12 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:from Joe Rao, retired Met from Fios... talking dry air and virga again for NNJ. What do you all think?

"12km North American Model (NAM), that when the R1 level of relative humidity – that is, that sampling of the atmosphere from 1,500-feet down to ground level – registers less than 80%, that precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. And the latest 12Z guidance run of the NAM FOUS shows that for LaGuardia Airport, that section of the atmosphere will not “moisten-up” enough to allow for a steady snowfall until sometime around 4 a.m. on Friday."

The last storm, the cold dry air kept the snow below Central Jersey, so this estimate may well pan out.Hoping it doesn't, but sometimes cold ,dry air is not the snow lovers friend. Suppression depression.

Joe was actually with optimum news12 and sorry but I found him to be often wrong, I never listened to him. not knocking his work just I have seen him wrong more often than not.

jmanley32 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:from Joe Rao, retired Met from Fios... talking dry air and virga again for NNJ. What do you all think?

"12km North American Model (NAM), that when the R1 level of relative humidity – that is, that sampling of the atmosphere from 1,500-feet down to ground level – registers less than 80%, that precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. And the latest 12Z guidance run of the NAM FOUS shows that for LaGuardia Airport, that section of the atmosphere will not “moisten-up” enough to allow for a steady snowfall until sometime around 4 a.m. on Friday."

The last storm, the cold dry air kept the snow below Central Jersey, so this estimate may well pan out.Hoping it doesn't, but sometimes cold ,dry air is not the snow lovers friend. Suppression depression.

Joe was actually with optimum news12 and sorry but I found him to be often wrong, I never listened to him. not knocking his work just I have seen him wrong more often than not.

Never really paid muich attention to him persay, but I do often talk to Angry Ben, who was a sidekick to Joes sidekick, Joe Cioffi. I have to ask him what he thinks about this one.

Frank_Wx wrote:Thanks for the lesson here Ray. Always appreciated


I know we’re talking semantics, but I’m feeling comfortable with saying 2-4 as opposed to 3-6 because my opinion is 2-4 covers majority of our members, whereas 3-6 is really just coastal NJ and Long Island.

What lesson? Lmao I didn’t say anything yet haha I guess I’m being voluntold to do it

EURO more tucked great sign here peeps. Keep tucking and its trucking!

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is the temperature at the 700mb altitude. The dgz (dendritic growth zone) is most weighted to this altitude as it's where snow crystals are formed.  Humidity and temperature are very important at this altitude for snow growth.  I think ratios with this are going to be good even closer to the coast with that banana high. That could add an inch or two to a normal 10:1.

Careful here, heehaw. The DGZ is dynamic, and based exclusively on where forcing for ascent is maximized within the thermal range(s) for dendrite development. You have two thermal ranges for optimal dendritic growth; 0°C to -3°C, and then -10° to about -22°C.

https://images.app.goo.gl/mJYnBvnCpSy1zTzM7

Keep in mind, that both the thermal and dynamical components to this equation are fluid within a storm, both temporally and vertically, so I’ll let you determine how to best approach forecasting crystal formation tendencies, accumulation efficiencies, and accumulations from there. A magician can’t divulge all his secrets :p besides, figuring those secrets out is where all the fun is anyway haha

Ray Id love a lesson in this one day.  Admittedly this is not my strong suite.  

A lesson in………..lapse rates or snowfall ratios/crystal formation tendencies? Lol your image is of lapse rates, so I’m not sure which topic you’re referencing haha

Sorry.  snowfall ratios and crystal formation tendancies and how to utilize the sounding to determine the ratio at a give local.  Ive seen the basic tables that show between this temp and this temp on the surface you get this ratio etc, but I know there are nuances that can be found using the soundings.  The lapse rate map is just to show that over the top IMBY are nice steep lapse rates indicating pretty sweet snow fall rates during that time stamp.  

Ohhhh ok haha yeah, most mets just use Bufkit to assess the DGZ and snowfall ratios, and base their forecasts off that. I’ve never been a fan of Bufkit, though; always felt that it was lack-luster. So, over the years I’ve found a method that I feel works much better than that, but it takes time. A lot of time haha if I can get a storm to overlap with days that I’ll be available, I guess I can make a video discussing this specific component of my forecast. If not, I can take an afternoon and write it up lol

So much for my magic act

Euro snow map

Dont sweat it Ray. Seriously. We are all busy with our lives.

Models are still corrected NW the last 36 hours now and it's due IMO to the dynamic set up with that other feature they keep jumping the LP to ots in the Atlantic. Let's see what 18z SR models show. Good lift of cloud tops in Kentucky right now that bodes well up this way as the storm moves in out direction.

If you are in the interior I don't think the coastal is going to help much.  You have hope that the primary holds on enough to put you in a meso band.  That is a nowcast thing and could even miss the I-95.  If that doesn't happen expect 2-3" even with ratios.

heehaw453 wrote:If you are in the interior I don't think the coastal is going to help much.  You have hope that the primary holds on enough to put you in a meso band.  That is a nowcast thing and could even miss the I-95.  If that doesn't happen expect 2-3" even with ratios.

So pretty much for someone like me, don't even get the boots out lol

mikeypizano wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:If you are in the interior I don't think the coastal is going to help much.  You have hope that the primary holds on enough to put you in a meso band.  That is a nowcast thing and could even miss the I-95.  If that doesn't happen expect 2-3" even with ratios.

So pretty much for someone like me, don't even get the boots out lol

Yeah doubt theres any shot all way out there my friend, you will get yours i am sure.