Long Range Discussion 23.0

adamfitz1969 wrote:Also just to add....

LOL

I really shouldn’t be surprised, but, admittedly, I am haha

JT33 wrote:Greetings, all!  I've been following this board for quite a few years now and decided to join.  I enjoy the banter and informative discussions.  And what better time to hop aboard than with a major storm possibly affecting the area.  Former science and English teacher in special education with a passion for all things science, including weather.  Looking forward to following along.  Cheers!  John

Welcome aboard, JT!! Glad to have you as a member!

The UKMET is way east and a non-event. HOWEVER, in my experience, it is also the model with the worst progressive (south/east) bias I’ve ever seen, so this was expected, in my opinion, and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Especially since it almost always the last model to shift westward.

hyde345 wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:Also just to add....

IMO GFS is a crap model. It was right once or twice recently but it still has issues. I would trust Euro/Nam combo and then CMC. GFS is in the same camp as the ICON in my book.

We've all been there in the times when ICON was the only model showing the snow solution and the thought crossed our minds "maybe this time the ICON is right!" No shame lol.

rb924119 wrote:The UKMET is way east and a non-event. HOWEVER, in my experience, it is also the model with the worst progressive (south/east) bias I’ve ever seen, so this was expected, in my opinion, and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Especially since it almost always the last model to shift westward.

It's been way east every run.

Zhukov1945 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:Also just to add....

IMO GFS is a crap model. It was right once or twice recently but it still has issues. I would trust Euro/Nam combo and then CMC. GFS is in the same camp as the ICON in my book.

We've all been there in the times when ICON was the only model showing the snow solution and the thought crossed our minds "maybe this time the ICON is right!"  No shame lol.

Yes, but then it's always wrong anyway.

0Z ECMWF OP does have Godzilla snows for NYC and points east. Though some places in the northeast, especially New England, have Roidzilla totals on it. Sharp cutoff though.

Actually, on this run, even places on the Jersey shore have potential Roidzilla snows as shown through the qpf:



Given the setup though, New England is still favored for the heaviest snows.

Canadian was just fine.  The n/s phase was just fine and consequently the ULL was closing off inland. That is what you want to see.

00Z Euro fairly steady. Not as intense as previous runs, but ULL track/close off pretty steady.

A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Just heard from 1010 wins for sat storm so far for they are thinking 6 -12 inches of snow along with strong Winds and travel Disrupted

06Z GFS finally showing evidence of closing off earlier. Not there yet for my tastes, but it's not moving away from the idea which is good.

As always this will be a very difficult storm to nail down.  Dynamic nature very tough to get right.

I expect 00Z tonight to really start seeing much truer surface map representations.

We’ll see what happens today…it’s only Wednesday after all…but I’m disheartened with the overnight trends. It’s pretty clear at 500mb the EURO trended towards the GFS eastern track (albeit still a fantastic storm for LI). We have seen a major development and that is the later phase as a result of lower heights across western Canada and the US west coast.



All the blue shading across western Canada is indicative of heights trending softer over the last 48 hours, which directly impacts the orientation and “dig” location of our northern stream energy. Instead of a phase happening over the central part of the country it is happening off the east coast. Too late for most, but not for *possibly* NYC east, and coastal New England.

I’m not say that will be the end result. Again, we’re in Wednesday now and recon will be heading into the storm. Look for that data to be available on tonight’s 00z runs. Today I’m looking to see if the phase, and closure of H5, can happen earlier so more people get into the heavier snows. We shall see

heehaw453 wrote:As always this will be a very difficult storm to nail down.  Dynamic nature very tough to get right.

I expect 00Z tonight to really start seeing much truer surface map representations.

yes it’s is .Do you think this will be a all time storm for us snow lovers

frank 638 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:As always this will be a very difficult storm to nail down.  Dynamic nature very tough to get right.

I expect 00Z tonight to really start seeing much truer surface map representations.

yes it’s is .Do you think this will be a all time storm for us snow lovers

NYC in a decent spot IMO. It just depends on where we can get an ULL closure. It could be the difference between 3-6" and 12"+. More often than not these dynamic systems have big surprises one way or the other...

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Well even euro and nam made shifts east. Now let me say I'm not live and die by model suite from one night but when every model takes a fairly Sig east shift it puts a damper on it and a dose of reality. Hoping it is just a windshield wiper effect. Even a moderate storm would be good but man I think we all wanted see yesterday's euro and nam type hit. What were the ensembles like for euro? Big day today for sure!

One thing to consider here is that there will be ratios in some areas of at least 15:1 up to close to 25:1 or even a touch higher IMHO.  I haven’t looked too in depth at these sorts of details as we still need to nail down slp track, and when upper and mid level lows close and their positioning as well.

Hell of a Hunt

We TRACK!!!

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

phil155 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

Yup I could see how carolinas VA DE and SNJ get godzilla to roidzilla snows and the entire board other than a few far south jersey people see nothing. It def is not over at all but we need to see a shift back NW at some point I am hoping with the new data that could be tonight 00z, do not be too upset if 12z shows similar to last night and this morning or even more SE. Hey ray what happened to your statement that this could or would have plenty of room to come further NW? Just curious why you think the after the over nights. If I heard right News 12 just said likely a glancing blow with some light snow or flurries.

phil155 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

What is your location Phil?

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

Yup I could see how carolinas VA DE and SNJ get godzilla to roidzilla snows and the entire board other than a few far south jersey people see nothing. It def is not over at all but we need to see a shift back NW at some point I am hoping with the new data that could be tonight 00z, do not be too upset if 12z shows similar to last night and this morning or even more SE. Hey ray what happened to your statement that this could or would have plenty of room to come further NW? Just curious why you think the after the over nights. If I heard right News 12 just said likely a glancing blow with some light snow or flurries.

I think we are still in the game but the odds after last night have worsened.However, from what I have seen from the long range crew, an earlier phase and a negative tilt developing changes our odds for the better.Lot's of time for that to happen it is only Wednesday.

docstox12 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

Yup I could see how carolinas VA DE and SNJ get godzilla to roidzilla snows and the entire board other than a few far south jersey people see nothing. It def is not over at all but we need to see a shift back NW at some point I am hoping with the new data that could be tonight 00z, do not be too upset if 12z shows similar to last night and this morning or even more SE. Hey ray what happened to your statement that this could or would have plenty of room to come further NW? Just curious why you think the after the over nights. If I heard right News 12 just said likely a glancing blow with some light snow or flurries.

I think we are still in the game but the odds after last night have worsened.However, from what I have seen from the long range crew, an earlier phase and a negative tilt developing changes our odds for the better.Lot's of time for that to happen it is only Wednesday.

yeah keep hope alive.

docstox12 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

What is your location Phil?

Edison

jmanley32 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

Yup I could see how carolinas VA DE and SNJ get godzilla to roidzilla snows and the entire board other than a few far south jersey people see nothing. It def is not over at all but we need to see a shift back NW at some point I am hoping with the new data that could be tonight 00z, do not be too upset if 12z shows similar to last night and this morning or even more SE. Hey ray what happened to your statement that this could or would have plenty of room to come further NW? Just curious why you think the after the over nights. If I heard right News 12 just said likely a glancing blow with some light snow or flurries.

I think we are still in the game but the odds after last night have worsened.However, from what I have seen from the long range crew, an earlier phase and a negative tilt developing changes our odds for the better.Lot's of time for that to happen it is only Wednesday.

yeah keep hope alive.

Yep, as Doc says, cautious optimism.Anyway, it sure is a great time for the board a big winter storm on the prowl.Be back here tomorrow am for another look.