Pattern Change WILL Happen, Snow Around The 16th?

12z GFS is still on pace for the pattern change. The Pacific pattern looks very good on this run, even though the -NAO is slower to develop, it still does.

Impressive cold run. Get ready folks! All we need is a storm and we're golden..

From my Facebook page:

https://i.servimg.com/u/f16/18/03/09/58/image17.jpg

The latest 12z GFS continues to advertise the pattern change I blogged about over the weekend. After a cold front passes through our region around the 16th, an arctic front will follow and cold air will come in from behind. A ridge will develop in the west (+PNA) and blocking will develop over Greenland (-NAO). "Blocking" means positive height anomalies, or warm air, over a particular region. This will help keep cold air intact over northeastern U.S. All that's missing is a storm. We'll see if models can form a storm system in future runs. Pictured is the 12z GFS temp anomalies from normal departures. Blue and green means COLD

12z GFS looks really good despite it showing a +NAO and -PNA. It doesn't look like a -PNA to me on the run.

Snow88 wrote:12z GFS looks really good despite it showing a +NAO and -PNA. It doesn't look like a -PNA to me on the run.

All you have to do is look at the 500mb maps to know that is definitely no a -PNA

It's definitely going to get a lot colder. Still don't see any real threats for a snowstorm yet but the cold air is one piece to that puzzle we need. Wow, I've been watching the 7online forum on this and it's just sad. Luckily we can talk with sanity here

Coldest it gets on this run, not bitter arctic air, but definitely colder than it is now.

Yea there are some signals for a storm around the 20tg but I don't wanna look that far ahead just yet. First we need to make sire the cold air locks in

Again, not to look too far ahead, but the 18z GFS is quite a bit warmer especially in the long range. IMO we're going to def have the cooldown, but the far future is still unsettled.

Sorry i havent been posting much guys, midterm week is coming up, so i have been studying. Ive been lurking and looking at model data from time to time and it seems almost definite for the pattern change, only thing im worried about is that the arctic air might suppress our storms. What are your feelings about that guys?

There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of EC storms that occur during this time period. The thing I'm worried about is the arctic air moving out quickly and going to an unsettled pattern with a possible SE ridge back in place. NAO will head negative then the ensemble means spread anywhere from slightly negative to neutral to positive. The AO looks to be negative. The PNA looks to dip to slightly negative to more negative as we head into the long range which is not good. The GFS brickwalls the MJO as it heads towards phase 7 and loops it around in the center of phase 6 which is also not good. So IMO it's a 50/50 shot of a longer cold shot or something that breaks back down into a SE ridge like the GFS shows. Just my amateur analysis of the latest teleconnections.

It is battles of the models once again. The 00z GFS looked somewhat suspect tonight because it magically lost the +PNA yet the EPO remained negative. It's around seasonable cold and warm up for a couple days then gets cold again. EURO and its ensembles look much different. We will have to see how things play out. I'm not concerned about the long range warmth GFS shows. Actually, at 00z it kinda lost that.

OP 00z GFS and 00z GEFS are completely different. Check it out...

http://epawablogs.com/111-pattern-update-00z-gfsgefs/

I am hearing 00z EURO is amazing

The EURO brings the front through on the 16th faster this run, has more robust blocking, and is extremely cold in the long range, which in turn, suppresses our storm chance around the 20th of January.

I have not been this excited about weather since 2011. I am ready to rock and roll.

COLD

The front swings through even earlier on the 12z GFS. Now looks to be mid or late day Monday. Temps drop 20 degrees once the front passes on through. Once this front passes, we're in an official pattern change

MJO favorable

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Snow88 wrote:MJO favorable

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Yup, just posted in the banter thread. Looks great. UKIE has been showing this all along. I wonder if we can make progress and see them get into 8.

Wow, the GFS is cold. The cold keeps reloading.

The MJO amplifies into phase 7 and just loops around in there. It does not reverse back into 6. In fact, I would not be surprised to see it get into 8 as we get closer to February.

GGEM still showing snow

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

We will now use this thread to track the snow potential the GGEM is advertising around the 16th. GFS was pretty close to one as well. My gut feeling, though, is area northwest of I-95 see the snow.

12z GGEM is sexy

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

This is really impressive.

Euro is frigid