Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall

The upper level energy associated with this event is fairly weak. I think we're looking at an even lighter snowfall than what we just saw a couple of days ago. Here's my 1st call snow map. Let's use this thread to discuss this one, and LR to analyze Monday's possible biggy.



Still concerned about surface temps along immediate coast down the Jersey Shore, but I think N&W is going to net a few inches from this. Hey, back to back snows in March. Maybe this winter gets upgraded from an F to a D-?

Frank_Wx wrote:The upper level energy associated with this event is fairly weak. I think we're looking at an even lighter snowfall than what we just saw a couple of days ago. Here's my 1st call snow map. Let's use this thread to discuss this one, and LR to analyze Monday's possible biggy.



Still concerned about surface temps along immediate coast down the Jersey Shore, but I think N&W is going to net a few inches from this. Hey, back to back snows in March. Maybe this winter gets upgraded from an F to a D-?

Only way this winter goes from an F to a D-, Is if we get at least one Godzilla type storm or better.

That is how awful this winter has been sadly.

GEM LAM SHort Range Model 10:1 - thinking more 8:1 ratio


18Z EURO



Where do I sign!!

NWS not impressed

Winter Weather Advisory here. This would be a nice precursor storm for something bigger Monday night.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AMEST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. &

So an interesting feature on the 12z NAM is what looks like sort of a Norlun trough type situation where an area of snow extends back to the coast as the low intensifies offshore. The NAM actually shows a heavy burst of snow at the NJ coast in the Monmouth and Ocean County areas producing a few inches of snow there. The GFS and Euro hint at this also, but don't show the same accumulations. Real, or not real? Trying to figure that out as it could create an "island" of accumulation near the NJ coast at the tail end of this if accurate verbatim.

If such a feature were to develop, the NAM I would bet would be the first to really pick up on it, so that would make sense.  This is the first run where I see it. Will be interested to see if it sticks with the 18z and if it pops up on other models.

These types of events can be very localized, so wouldn't be unusual for areas north and south to get very little accumulation, but the area in between to get dumped on for a few hours.

Temperatures in those coastal areas would be just above freezing Saturday morning which could hinder stickage, but the idea would be that the rates would be heavy enough in that narrow band over the coast to partially overcome that and accumulate a few inches. We've certainly seen snow accumulate above freezing with the right rates so it's not impossible. Problem is these features can be very hard to predict, in particular with regard to exact location.

As has been said. The coastal isn't a lost cause. The mid-level energy can can cause forcing right back to land.  NAM is picking up on it. The initial WAA snows are inland no question about it and exactly where that sets up is going to depend on the exact track/strength of the ULL as is dives SE.

billg315 wrote:So an interesting feature on the 12z NAM is what looks like sort of a Norlun trough type situation where an area of snow extends back to the coast as the low intensifies offshore. The NAM actually shows a heavy burst of snow at the NJ coast in the Monmouth and Ocean County areas producing a few inches of snow there.  The GFS and Euro hint at this also, but don't show the same accumulations. Real, or not real? Trying to figure that out as it could create an "island" of accumulation near the NJ coast at the tail end of this if accurate verbatim.

Forms a Meso Low just off the coast - reminds me of Nov 2017 storm that did the same and dumped on the NNJ region for hours bringing the area to halt that rush hour and night

NAM 12Z yuo can clearly see where it pops the meso low off Monmouth County. Issue maybe when it happens which is at daybreak for accumulatiosn with a BL of 33/34. IF this was a true arctic air source then it'd be a slam dunk for accumulations. There is alot of energy flying in this system so pin pointing this is going to be basically a nowcast time......at 3-4AM

amugs wrote:

NAM 12Z yuo can clearly see where it pops the meso low off Monmouth County. Issue maybe when it happens which is at daybreak for accumulatiosn with a BL of 33/34. IF this was a true arctic air source then it'd be a slam dunk for accumulations. There is alot of energy flying in this system so pin pointing this is going to be basically a nowcast time......at 3-4AM

Uh, wow!!

12Z GFS
The ULL is coming in further north on the models now. That means to me better chance for snow is the coastal unless you're in extreme NW NJ, NEPA and maybe LHV. Initial WAA snows would be confined to that area if this is a true trend.

edit: I wouldn't trust much right now on the models as ULL that close off are tricky birds.

So whats the update for NYC area and surrounding, Frank has me just into 1-3 by a smidge.

West Milford you are in a great spot - you'll get smoked up their in dem hills!!

18z HRRR

amugs wrote:West Milford you are in a  great spot - you'll get smoked up their in dem hills!!

The trends continue to be positive toward the coast.
I think the city will see some accumulation now. A couple of inches?

I dont know if the models are over correcting the ULL trajectory, but I can assure if this true front end snows will be disappointing for most and be elevation dependent.

CNWestMilford wrote:

If that 10.4 over my house happens I’m going to have a lot of friends and family mad at me for underplaying this, but should it happen
I don’t really care if they are.

I’ll stick with 3-5, I think it’s the much safer bet for now.

WWA for my area has issued. I was not expecting the 3-6" prediction.

ISSUED: 4:12 PM MAR. 9, 2023 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches
with locally higher amounts possible well north and west of NYC.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

essexcountypete wrote:WWA for my area has issued. I was not expecting the 3-6" prediction.

ISSUED: 4:12 PM MAR. 9, 2023 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches
with locally higher amounts possible well north and west of NYC.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

If that coastal wraps up faster or just stalls a bit longer you may be closer to the 6". Very dynamic setup and won't take much.

The ULL latitude is going to make the WAA stuff tough IMO. The magic either happens or it doesn't as the storm deepens off the coast. If that doesn't happen this busts hard on the southern edge of the snow zones or overperforms due to stalling/deeper development. High bust either way.