Re: March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II

by **billg315** Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:52 am

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Playing contrarian here, we should start to see the radar fill in now. The red line looks to me to be the back edge associated with the backing mid-level flows (H7 and H5). The yellow line is my estimation of the back edge of the precipitation being forced by the lower-levels H85 and below). The blue line is the back edge that I’m expecting to see emerge over the next several hours. Then as the whole system progresses, some northward progression of the back edge is expected, but it should pivot more than just lift up/out. Will be fun to test this.

I’m not giving up on this. If I’m wrong then so be it. But right now, I like what I’m seeing on radar and satellite imagery.

Just following up on this with the current radar:

I have to admit, this idea has worked well overall so far, even if not for my back yard lol

I would say this has been a pretty good analysis my friend, as the fact that a heavy band has set up as far south and west as the Hunterdon, Somerset, Mercer county areas is further south than I would have expected (albeit with little stickage due to marginal temps and sun angle challenges).

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:54 am

Blitzing again, man what this could have been even with this not completely in out favor if it was colder I prolly would seen 3-6, maybe more. No stickage, it is too warm and the sun angle. Snow globing : )

by **docstox12** Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:55 am

33 degrees heavy ,wind blown snow,Been under a band for an hour,Close to 11 inches as per the 9:10 am trained spotter in my town reporting 9 inches.Roads a mess, very little traffic today.

by Artingerb Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:56 am

Kinnelon at 670FT
Looks like 1"-less than 2" on solid surfaces, else it just melts.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 12 Outsid11

by **brownie** Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:58 am

Up to 3” on the grass now, an inch on my concrete front walk and part of the driveway is covered now. 32°F, down from 33°F where it had been hanging out all morning.

by **billg315** Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:01 pm

Surface:

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 12 10f60010

H5:

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 12 Be316310

by **billg315** Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:15 pm

Current banding setup at noon:

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 12 E0223d10

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:15 pm

Absolutely ripping it is abdolutely killing me that it cant accumulate its easily 1+ hr rate

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:17 pm

billg315 wrote:Current banding setup at noon:

i can confitm.the bsnd over my area. Its nuts.

by **docstox12** Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:32 pm

Wind is picking up here, with the higher gusts and heavy snow, whiteouts occuring.My fencepost reads 11 inches(trained spotter at NWS had me at 9 inches at 9:10 AM).

by missmorris Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:34 pm

brownie wrote:Up to 3” on the grass now, an inch on my concrete front walk and part of the driveway is covered now. 32°F, down from 33°F where it had been hanging out all morning.

Brownie and I live in the same town, but I'm a few miles further east. We just have blowing snow here! My daughters live about 30 minutes west (Mount Olive Twp) and have 5" - 6"!

by **amugs** Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:37 pm

ABSOLUTE PUKING SNOW HERE and has been in Allednale since about 9:30AM would have easily been a 3" snowfall if it were stickage at this point.
Great job Rb next time bring it in at night.
HRRR showing a heavy band aroudn 8PM in the NENJ LHV and NYC region extending onto LI, if that happens then we may accumulate - suns down and temps can cool as well.

by **amugs** Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:39 pm

docstox12 wrote:Wind is picking up here, with the higher gusts and heavy snow, whiteouts occuring.My fencepost reads 11 inches(trained spotter at NWS had me at 9 inches at 9:10 AM).

Congrats Doc and CP you guys deserve this one!!

We have an early dissmissal - why? I do not know I don't make the call but I'll take it LOL!

by **brownie** Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:40 pm

missmorris wrote:
brownie wrote:Up to 3” on the grass now, an inch on my concrete front walk and part of the driveway is covered now. 32°F, down from 33°F where it had been hanging out all morning.

Brownie and I live in the same town, but I'm a few miles further east. We just have blowing snow here! My daughters live about 30 minutes west (Mount Olive Twp) and have 5" - 6"!

I’m also probably at a significantly higher elevation than you are, up the mountain near Morris Plains and Denville. There’s always more snow here.

It’s still really coming down here.

by **amugs** Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:47 pm

Look at that rotation of heavy snow pivoting down March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 12 Inxr1Knyca_h

by **SENJsnowman** Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:49 pm

billg315 wrote:Current banding setup at noon:

Dang it- just missed me! Oh well, maybe one more coming through in a little bit.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 12 2553b110

by missmorris Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:02 pm

brownie wrote:
missmorris wrote:
brownie wrote:Up to 3” on the grass now, an inch on my concrete front walk and part of the driveway is covered now. 32°F, down from 33°F where it had been hanging out all morning.

Brownie and I live in the same town, but I'm a few miles further east. We just have blowing snow here! My daughters live about 30 minutes west (Mount Olive Twp) and have 5" - 6"!
I’m also probably at a significantly higher elevation than you are, up the mountain near Morris Plains and Denville. There’s always more snow here.

It’s still really coming down here.

Definitely! It looks like a blizzard here, but just barely sticking to the grass. 32* here, also. I used to teach in Denville. The snow conditions from Denville to Parsippany on a 10 minute drive on rt 46 were like night and day!

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:08 pm

amugs wrote:Look at that rotation of heavy snow pivoting down

Wow, mugs lets hope we can keep this up through late afternoon into the night and can get at least some stickage, currently blitzing here still and does not look to quit. Scott no bust here you were spot on with the banding, I cannot call it a bust bc not sticking that as we know has uncontrollable factors.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:09 pm

amugs wrote:Look at that rotation of heavy snow pivoting down

In it right now. Easily 2+ inch per hour rates. I’m at 8 inches plus now so already beat Feb 28th 7.3 inch storm. if I could stay under this a couple of hours I easily make a foot. Doc 5 miles to my west already in double digits.

And no this wing is still an F- but it’s a nice ending if this is it.

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:12 pm

Wow futrecast keeps the area in this through its last screen shot which is 2:35pm, and does not look to change at all, it would be amazing if the LP over cape stalls.

by **billg315** Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:17 pm

Heavy wind-swept snow blowing sideways here. Have to say, even with the warm surface temps and sun angle, I'm kind of surprised we're having almost no stickage here. Usually when it comes down this heavy it can overcome those factors to a degree. But as has been said many times this morning, still looks nice out the window. And congrats to those north of me like Doc and CP who appear to be getting a real good storm out of this!

by **dkodgis** Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:24 pm

Still snowing. Struggling for 6 inches. This snow is the fluffiest I have seen in a long while. The snow looks almost bristlely with an ice crystal type of appearance.

by **GreyBeard** Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:33 pm

One good thing about no stickage is that you don't have to deal with shoveling or snow blowing. With marginal temps, I'd imagine it's a pretty heavy snow to move around. I guess everything comes at a price...

by **GreyBeard** Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:35 pm

dkodgis wrote:Still snowing. Struggling for 6 inches. This snow is the fluffiest I have seen in a long while. The snow looks almost bristlely with an ice crystal type of appearance.

Fluffy is good, I thought it would be just the opposite.

by **phil155** Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:45 pm

Snowing at a good clip and I think if it were a month ago we would have a decent snowfall but right now everything here is just wet

by richb521 Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:50 pm

Ripping snow for the last few hours in Hillsborough, NJ. Unfortunately, only car tops covered currently. If only that ULL stayed further south ugh. Nice scenery though.

by **essexcountypete** Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:53 pm

GreyBeard wrote:One good thing about no stickage is that you don't have to deal with shoveling or snow blowing. With marginal temps, I'd imagine it's a pretty heavy snow to move around. I guess everything comes at a price...

I appreciate this little bit of silver lining right now.

We continue to snow globe with no accumulations

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