Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season

by **rb924119** Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:12 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Sorry, gang, I’ve been super busy the last two days working, prepping to get back to my regular job, and then getting back to Jersey between yesterday and today. I have no changes to my thinking. I think the hurricane models, GFS, and GEM suites are too progressive here and are not adequately representing the effect of the ridging to the northeast of the storm as it approaches. In my opinion, the EURO suite is much more aligned with my thinking, and I’m still on the western periphery of that. The pattern supports the idea of separation between the initial trough lifting out of the Northeast and Lee by way of relatively increased heights. It also supports enhanced ridging rapidly blossoming to the northeast of Lee due to factors previously mentioned in earlier posts. The trough diving into the central CONUS adds complexity, as well, since the it will likely act to do two things:

1. Try to kick Lee northward
2. Amplify the downstream flow, thereby further aiding in ridge development northeast of Lee

I truthfully do not see New England escaping without an official landfall, and I like the zone from Block Island to Rockland, Maine as the zone of landfall. Statistically, I’d say Cape Cod has the highest probability, BUT, personally, I think the region between Block Island and Cape Cod is more likely based on my analysis.
Thanks for your update, yeah all the over night models even a few of the hurricane models came further west. The HAFS B now have moderate TS force winds into western, CT and parts of far western, NY at one point. NHC notes that the actual landfall will have little to no significance to impacts due to the shear size of the expanding windfield. NHC also has Lee slower which is what would favor a more western track and even the cone shifted slightly to the west but likely not enough, you have been pretty good with this, though your bulls eye area has continued to shift east haha, its still within your area call which was a good one. IMO it landfalls on the further western areas you marked, if not cape cod even further like a RI landfall. Which puts me in a precarious spot being in far eastern, CT from thursday afternoon to saturday afternoon (but I was able to securely another night at the hotel complimentary should I decide to stay). What do you think are the odds the impacts are enough to impact bradley airport in Windsor Locks CT? My friend is leaving out Sat at 3pm, my thinking is due to the size and that being about 100 miles east and 40 miles north of here that it will likely be delayed if not canceled until Sunday. Would be nice to hangout with him for another night.

If you were to guess when would hurricane/TS watches go up and how far west would they reach lets say if a RI landfall happened, or lets be safe a cape cod landfall.

If my idea is correct, and we see landfall further west (which I agree with you), I’d expect the flight to be cancelled. If it goes east of Cape Cod, probably just delayed. As I told Mom earlier, the NHC is going to hug the hurricane models, so until they come on board (if they do), I don’t expect the official advisories to be hoisted. Maybe wind advisories to start that then get changed. I’d hope that by tomorrow evening things are more in alignment and proper actions are taken.

by **rb924119** Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:17 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Sorry, gang, I’ve been super busy the last two days working, prepping to get back to my regular job, and then getting back to Jersey between yesterday and today. I have no changes to my thinking. I think the hurricane models, GFS, and GEM suites are too progressive here and are not adequately representing the effect of the ridging to the northeast of the storm as it approaches. In my opinion, the EURO suite is much more aligned with my thinking, and I’m still on the western periphery of that. The pattern supports the idea of separation between the initial trough lifting out of the Northeast and Lee by way of relatively increased heights. It also supports enhanced ridging rapidly blossoming to the northeast of Lee due to factors previously mentioned in earlier posts. The trough diving into the central CONUS adds complexity, as well, since the it will likely act to do two things:

1. Try to kick Lee northward
2. Amplify the downstream flow, thereby further aiding in ridge development northeast of Lee

I truthfully do not see New England escaping without an official landfall, and I like the zone from Block Island to Rockland, Maine as the zone of landfall. Statistically, I’d say Cape Cod has the highest probability, BUT, personally, I think the region between Block Island and Cape Cod is more likely based on my analysis.

when will we have a better idea?? Thank you for your analysis

No problem, Mom I feel pretty confident personally. But with respect to the models/NHC, probably not for another day or two. The NHC will hug the hurricane models, which will likely be the last to adjust, so expect only incremental changes from them in successive updates (assuming the changes I discussed hold true). The regular models (GEM/GFS and to a lesser extent, the EURO suites) are likely coming around now, and should be pretty good by Thursday night’s runs, in my opinion. I’d think no later than Friday’s 12z suites. After that, I wouldn’t expect too many “surprises”. Just my opinion though.
With all the technology today and weather forecasting stuff we won't know for sure until less than 24 hrs out?! This is a hurricane not a snowstorm, yeah snowstorms are impactful but they used to be better with hurricanes. This one especially since it really wont matter too much where the landfall is if in block island we are in play for TS conditions. If so I will be in the hurricane conditions (where I will be (Mohegan Sun) is 35 miles birds eye from Block Island, which should be interesting in a 36 story hotel....

Well, for reference, you’re roughly 72 hours out now and the spread is still from Nova Scotia to Block Island (between the hurricane models and dynamic models), which is huge, and agreeably disappointing. But with respect to modeling, yeah, we will probably have to wait until we are inside of 36 hours before there’s a good consensus.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:32 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Sorry, gang, I’ve been super busy the last two days working, prepping to get back to my regular job, and then getting back to Jersey between yesterday and today. I have no changes to my thinking. I think the hurricane models, GFS, and GEM suites are too progressive here and are not adequately representing the effect of the ridging to the northeast of the storm as it approaches. In my opinion, the EURO suite is much more aligned with my thinking, and I’m still on the western periphery of that. The pattern supports the idea of separation between the initial trough lifting out of the Northeast and Lee by way of relatively increased heights. It also supports enhanced ridging rapidly blossoming to the northeast of Lee due to factors previously mentioned in earlier posts. The trough diving into the central CONUS adds complexity, as well, since the it will likely act to do two things:

1. Try to kick Lee northward
2. Amplify the downstream flow, thereby further aiding in ridge development northeast of Lee

I truthfully do not see New England escaping without an official landfall, and I like the zone from Block Island to Rockland, Maine as the zone of landfall. Statistically, I’d say Cape Cod has the highest probability, BUT, personally, I think the region between Block Island and Cape Cod is more likely based on my analysis.
Thanks for your update, yeah all the over night models even a few of the hurricane models came further west. The HAFS B now have moderate TS force winds into western, CT and parts of far western, NY at one point. NHC notes that the actual landfall will have little to no significance to impacts due to the shear size of the expanding windfield. NHC also has Lee slower which is what would favor a more western track and even the cone shifted slightly to the west but likely not enough, you have been pretty good with this, though your bulls eye area has continued to shift east haha, its still within your area call which was a good one. IMO it landfalls on the further western areas you marked, if not cape cod even further like a RI landfall. Which puts me in a precarious spot being in far eastern, CT from thursday afternoon to saturday afternoon (but I was able to securely another night at the hotel complimentary should I decide to stay). What do you think are the odds the impacts are enough to impact bradley airport in Windsor Locks CT? My friend is leaving out Sat at 3pm, my thinking is due to the size and that being about 100 miles east and 40 miles north of here that it will likely be delayed if not canceled until Sunday. Would be nice to hangout with him for another night.

If you were to guess when would hurricane/TS watches go up and how far west would they reach lets say if a RI landfall happened, or lets be safe a cape cod landfall.

Regarding the bolded text, that’s not entirely true. The three zones I outlined since the beginning have been the following:

1. North/South Carolina border to Maine
2. Coastal Virginia to Cape Cod, specifically mentioned center point of my cone would be somewhere on Lomg Island
3. Block Island to Cape Cod, with my zone of expected landfall between block island and Cape Cod.

Considering that the centerline of my forecast zone even in the first one was Long Island, my forecast “track” (in quotes because technically I never issued a map) has only shifted east one time in the span of what, two weeks? And that shift was only by about 100 miles? I’d say that’s pretty darn consistent. The only thing that has changed is my zones got narrower and more refined as the specific components have become clearer, but the idea and center points of my three different zones have remained very consistent.

Dude that was a joke, I was kidding around : )

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:37 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Sorry, gang, I’ve been super busy the last two days working, prepping to get back to my regular job, and then getting back to Jersey between yesterday and today. I have no changes to my thinking. I think the hurricane models, GFS, and GEM suites are too progressive here and are not adequately representing the effect of the ridging to the northeast of the storm as it approaches. In my opinion, the EURO suite is much more aligned with my thinking, and I’m still on the western periphery of that. The pattern supports the idea of separation between the initial trough lifting out of the Northeast and Lee by way of relatively increased heights. It also supports enhanced ridging rapidly blossoming to the northeast of Lee due to factors previously mentioned in earlier posts. The trough diving into the central CONUS adds complexity, as well, since the it will likely act to do two things:

1. Try to kick Lee northward
2. Amplify the downstream flow, thereby further aiding in ridge development northeast of Lee

I truthfully do not see New England escaping without an official landfall, and I like the zone from Block Island to Rockland, Maine as the zone of landfall. Statistically, I’d say Cape Cod has the highest probability, BUT, personally, I think the region between Block Island and Cape Cod is more likely based on my analysis.
Thanks for your update, yeah all the over night models even a few of the hurricane models came further west. The HAFS B now have moderate TS force winds into western, CT and parts of far western, NY at one point. NHC notes that the actual landfall will have little to no significance to impacts due to the shear size of the expanding windfield. NHC also has Lee slower which is what would favor a more western track and even the cone shifted slightly to the west but likely not enough, you have been pretty good with this, though your bulls eye area has continued to shift east haha, its still within your area call which was a good one. IMO it landfalls on the further western areas you marked, if not cape cod even further like a RI landfall. Which puts me in a precarious spot being in far eastern, CT from thursday afternoon to saturday afternoon (but I was able to securely another night at the hotel complimentary should I decide to stay). What do you think are the odds the impacts are enough to impact bradley airport in Windsor Locks CT? My friend is leaving out Sat at 3pm, my thinking is due to the size and that being about 100 miles east and 40 miles north of here that it will likely be delayed if not canceled until Sunday. Would be nice to hangout with him for another night.

If you were to guess when would hurricane/TS watches go up and how far west would they reach lets say if a RI landfall happened, or lets be safe a cape cod landfall.

If my idea is correct, and we see landfall further west (which I agree with you), I’d expect the flight to be cancelled. If it goes east of Cape Cod, probably just delayed. As I told Mom earlier, the NHC is going to hug the hurricane models, so until they come on board (if they do), I don’t expect the official advisories to be hoisted. Maybe wind advisories to start that then get changed. I’d hope that by tomorrow evening things are more in alignment and proper actions are taken.

He won't be a happy camper as I believe he has to be back in Colorado for work. I don't think they issue wind advisories anymore since sandy if anything TS watches and I just read NHC discussion and they are noting the main models shift west (maybe leaving the cane models a bit themselves) and that if so will hoist watches today or tonight. I fully expect to see the cone shift is it 8am or 11am that the cone can change. I think intermediate advisories (which are only issued when theres a warning or watch (Bermuda) is not updated other than position and intensity.

by **docstox12** Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:43 am

The NWS has tropical storm advisory here Fri night and Saturday up here in the Falmouth area of Cape Cod.Leaving tomorrow morning, getting ut of Dodge before it hits.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:45 am

docstox12 wrote:The NWS has tropical storm advisory here Fri night and Saturday up here in the Falmouth area of Cape Cod.Leaving tomorrow morning, getting ut of Dodge before it hits.

So far nothing noted on NWS or NHC, rip current and small craft advisories only and high surf.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:49 am

rb and so the wipers continue the 06z GFS is east lol

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 13, 2023 9:33 am

Lee has def been battling some dry air

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=wv_mid

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 10:36 am

sroc4 wrote:Lee has def been battling some dry air

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=wv_mid

Most definently, I think and have read he will begin to weaken slowly now. Impressive he will still be a 80mph cat 1 once reaching the our latitude. So currently the wind field is 240 miles, do we expect that to grow even bigger, is there anywhere that has a model showing how big it might get other than just a visual on the models?

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 13, 2023 10:43 am

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Lee has def been battling some dry air

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=wv_mid

Most definently, I think and have read he will begin to weaken slowly now. Impressive he will still be a 80mph cat 1 once reaching the our latitude. So currently the wind field is 240 miles, do we expect that to grow even bigger, is there anywhere that has a model showing how big it might get other than just a visual on the models?

No there is no model that you can look at to know how big it might get. Keep in mind as soon as it gets north of the Gulf stream the temps drop from about 80*f +/- to 70*f +/-. If this misses the trough it will likely slow down as it gets to our latitude which while hovering over that cold water will weaken it pretty fast as it comes onshore. Exactly how fast or slow its moving, and where exactly it is will dictate alot. The details you ask for will be known inside 12-24hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 11:02 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Lee has def been battling some dry air

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=wv_mid

Most definently, I think and have read he will begin to weaken slowly now. Impressive he will still be a 80mph cat 1 once reaching the our latitude. So currently the wind field is 240 miles, do we expect that to grow even bigger, is there anywhere that has a model showing how big it might get other than just a visual on the models?

No there is no model that you can look at to know how big it might get. Keep in mind as soon as it gets north of the Gulf stream the temps drop from about 80*f +/- to 70*f +/-. If this misses the trough it will likely slow down as it gets to our latitude which while hovering over that cold water will weaken it pretty fast as it comes onshore. Exactly how fast or slow its moving, and where exactly it is will dictate alot. The details you ask for will be known inside 12-24hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png

Thanks, cone shifted east of cape cod again, im surprised with the westward shift on the models. Like rb stated we will have to wait till thurs or fri which is crazy but it is the way it is.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 11:17 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Lee has def been battling some dry air

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=wv_mid

Most definently, I think and have read he will begin to weaken slowly now. Impressive he will still be a 80mph cat 1 once reaching the our latitude. So currently the wind field is 240 miles, do we expect that to grow even bigger, is there anywhere that has a model showing how big it might get other than just a visual on the models?

No there is no model that you can look at to know how big it might get. Keep in mind as soon as it gets north of the Gulf stream the temps drop from about 80*f +/- to 70*f +/-. If this misses the trough it will likely slow down as it gets to our latitude which while hovering over that cold water will weaken it pretty fast as it comes onshore. Exactly how fast or slow its moving, and where exactly it is will dictate alot. The details you ask for will be known inside 12-24hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png

Yeah I think NHC is showing that slowdown, if he is more west that would not be good especially for Cape Cod (let me be specific which Cape lol, jk) RI and parts of eastern CT and of course NH and Maine and then NS. I am exited to go down to the beaches in RI to see the surf (don't worry not going in the water and will not be driving down any roads that may get flooded (that part of RI gets flooded easily with high surf), Fri afternoon he will be moving pretty close so should be a good show on the water I hope. I used to love to watch the ocean waves when I was younger. But I lived in CT so all we had was the sound so unless we had a major storm the waves were more wavelets lol But we had plenty of surge, some storms brought water several streets up from the ocean.

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 13, 2023 12:15 pm

I'm just not convinced that we make it that far west. Looking at satellite observations it appears Lee is already made his turn as he looks like he is already on a NNW trajectory. The latest recon plane is on its way should we should see soon if this is truly the case.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=vis

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 18 Recon_AF309-2513A-LEE

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 18 Recon_AF309-2513A-LEE

In addition it appears when zooming out the trough is further S&E than anticipated and Lee is just barely a tick west of 67W Longitude. I just don't think he made it far enough west before the turn. It likely will get a bump east a little by the departing trough before bending back to the NW again but feel like it may not have enough of a tug to make it back to the cape or even within 100miles of it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv_mid

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 18 Track10

NO Jon im not officially writing off a landfall as far west as the cape, but my current observations make me think its unlikely

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Sep 13, 2023 12:42 pm

sroc4 wrote:I'm just not convinced that we make it that far west. Looking at satellite observations it appears Lee is already made his turn as he looks like he is already on a NNW trajectory. The latest recon plane is on its way should we should see soon if this is truly the case.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=vis

In addition it appears when zooming out the trough is further S&E than anticipated and Lee is just barely a tick west of 67W Longitude. I just don't think he made it far enough west before the turn. It likely will get a bump east a little by the departing trough before bending back to the NW again but feel like it may not have enough of a tug to make it back to the cape or even within 100miles of it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv_mid

NO Jon im not officially writing off a landfall as far west as the cape, but my current observations make me think its unlikely

thank you for the update..that whole area up there is so inundated with the rain they have had over the last couple of weeks..its sad and scary that they are starting out with such saturated ground.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 1:06 pm

sroc4 wrote:I'm just not convinced that we make it that far west. Looking at satellite observations it appears Lee is already made his turn as he looks like he is already on a NNW trajectory. The latest recon plane is on its way should we should see soon if this is truly the case.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=vis

In addition it appears when zooming out the trough is further S&E than anticipated and Lee is just barely a tick west of 67W Longitude. I just don't think he made it far enough west before the turn. It likely will get a bump east a little by the departing trough before bending back to the NW again but feel like it may not have enough of a tug to make it back to the cape or even within 100miles of it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv_mid

NO Jon im not officially writing off a landfall as far west as the cape, but my current observations make me think its unlikely

lol ahh you know me too well but with out that your explanation made sense and I honestly agree with you but I also trust in rays analysis and technically both of you will be right if its between here and NS. Will still be able to see good wave action regardless.

by **amugs** Wed Sep 13, 2023 1:30 pm

JB SPIRE Wx Model would bring Lee into CAPE COD IF so we would feel effects here. Interesting JMA is showing the same, GFS is east of Cape Cod

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 18 F57A59EXEAAUo4z?format=png&name=medium

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 18 F57A59EXEAAUo4z?format=png&name=medium

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 1:45 pm

amugs wrote:JB SPIRE Wx Model would bring Lee into CAPE COD IF so we would feel effects here. Interesting JMA is showing the same, GFS is east of Cape Cod

What in the world is the SPIRE? I have seen him mention it. This will be a fun time, no way my friends plane will be leaving sat if this verifies which hopefully means a extra day with him, maybe some storm chasing since ill be near RI : ) And 959mb, that's still a hurricane most likely or same strength. Lets see if in the next 48 hrs any models start showing something similar to this. So far it seems to have been back and forth to some degree.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 2:48 pm

My god thats gotta be a 500 mile windfield, he literally at least doubles in size, if he had been further west and took a earlier turn would have been Sandy part 2. No it is not going to be Sandy part 2, might be so in Cape cod, RI and eastern CT but not here. Sandy was about a 75mph storm I believe on approach.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 18 Hafsa-10

compared to currently, this is the HAFS-A, no idea of it's accuracy.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 18 Hafsa-11

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 4:04 pm

Euro was a decent shift east, the wipers continue, where he lands nobody knows. Scott starting to think your right, no offense ray, but either one of you could be right, both of you have solid analysis.

Update, does not change the extent of the reach of wind field west even though shifted east a bit which goes to show how expansive the wind field will be. Still reaches well into CT.

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 13, 2023 4:14 pm

jmanley32 wrote:My god thats gotta be a 500 mile windfield, he literally at least doubles in size, if he had been further west and took a earlier turn would have been Sandy part 2. No it is not going to be Sandy part 2, might be so in Cape cod, RI and eastern CT but not here. Sandy was about a 75mph storm I believe on approach.

compared to currently, this is the HAFS-A, no idea of it's accuracy.

You need to post the surface maps. Not 850mb maps. The his does. It represent what will happen at the surface.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 4:21 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:My god thats gotta be a 500 mile windfield, he literally at least doubles in size, if he had been further west and took a earlier turn would have been Sandy part 2. No it is not going to be Sandy part 2, might be so in Cape cod, RI and eastern CT but not here. Sandy was about a 75mph storm I believe on approach.

compared to currently, this is the HAFS-A, no idea of it's accuracy.

You need to post the surface maps. Not 850mb maps. The his does. It represent what will happen at the surface.

I know these are not surface winds but they do not depict the size of the wind field? That is what I was showing, if I put the 10m it does not show the wind overland which is annoying but I guess that's how it works.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Sep 13, 2023 4:21 pm

Jon..Spire I believe is AI run models if I am not mistaken..

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 4:30 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote: Jon..Spire I believe is AI run models if I am not mistaken..

interesting, I wonder how that works.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Sep 13, 2023 4:37 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote: Jon..Spire I believe is AI run models if I am not mistaken..
interesting, I wonder how that works.

Posted in banter

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 13, 2023 5:33 pm

TS watches from RI to Maine posted hurricane watch for northern Maine, how often does that happen? And NHC keeping Lee a tropical system almost to Maine, I guess they feel intensity won't drop as much as expected. Oh and scott Levi put up a video and mentioned wind field could get up to 500 miles!! WOW

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 18 21122110

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 13, 2023 5:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:My god thats gotta be a 500 mile windfield, he literally at least doubles in size, if he had been further west and took a earlier turn would have been Sandy part 2. No it is not going to be Sandy part 2, might be so in Cape cod, RI and eastern CT but not here. Sandy was about a 75mph storm I believe on approach.

compared to currently, this is the HAFS-A, no idea of it's accuracy.

You need to post the surface maps. Not 850mb maps. The his does. It represent what will happen at the surface.
I know these are not surface winds but they do not depict the size of the wind field? That is what I was showing, if I put the 10m it does not show the wind overland which is annoying but I guess that's how it works.

Here is the same time stamp as the one you posted above with the 10m maps winds in MPH. Unfort on Bell these are the only two avail. You can see there are nothing more than gusty winds beyond the eastern end of LI and the immediate coast of NE. Those 850's are deceiving. Maybe you get a gust here there in a heavy rain band translate down to the surface, but overall the 20s- 30's MPH are meh.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hafs-a-storm/lee13l/wnd10m_stream_mph/1694606400/1694887200-iT4J8yBIm7s.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hafs-a-parent/lee13l/wnd10m_stream_mph/1694606400/1694887200-8czkHjcwP2Y.png

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Sep 13, 2023 5:50 pm

Omg I thought I would be sad without my side kick around (we are a close family) but holly

not going to survive this..lol son is in the basement the school on lockdown for tornado warnings🤯🤯🤯 on plus side he is in an area with 2 other ..girls .

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