DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne, those winds are high. Granted, we saw how poorly the winds mixed down in last week's storm. But this one has a different look and feel to it. I can see the higher gusts mixing for sure along the coast.

Of course son traveling home from school on Monday...

NWS seems to feel that highest potential is 55mph for extreme eastern LI and most of CT to NYC is 30-40mph gusts, just a breezy rainy day def not a major storm as they are calling it.

I wouldn't call it just a breezy rainstorm, we could see some real flooding problems if this is the case. They have been raising the rainfall total the last 24 hours.

Dunnzoo wrote:I wouldn't call it just a breezy rainstorm, we could see some real flooding problems if this is the case. They have been raising the rainfall total the last 24 hours.

After the huge amounts we had this summer 2-4 inches does not sound like anything we can't handle. But your right, and the NWS always errs on caution, this will update at least 2-3 more times and we could see everything go up including the winds, if we are on the eastern side of the LP then we really get hit with high winds, over us or we are to the west less, i think that wind map is based on this being east of us. We will see.

jmanley32 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:I wouldn't call it just a breezy rainstorm, we could see some real flooding problems if this is the case. They have been raising the rainfall total the last 24 hours.

After the huge amounts we had this summer 2-4 inches does not sound like anything we can't handle. But your right, and the NWS always errs on caution, this will update at least 2-3 more times and we could see everything go up including the winds, if we are on the eastern side of the LP then we really get hit with high winds, over us or we are to the west less, i think that wind map is based on this being east of us. We will see.

Jman- LOL when NWS is calling for over 30mph winds and gusts to 50mph and several inches of rain..that is not a breezy rainy day for those who have to travel. Safe travels to our kids or anyone that needs to travel the begining of the week.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:I wouldn't call it just a breezy rainstorm, we could see some real flooding problems if this is the case. They have been raising the rainfall total the last 24 hours.

After the huge amounts we had this summer 2-4 inches does not sound like anything we can't handle. But your right, and the NWS always errs on caution, this will update at least 2-3 more times and we could see everything go up including the winds, if we are on the eastern side of the LP then we really get hit with high winds, over us or we are to the west less, i think that wind map is based on this being east of us. We will see.

Jman- LOL when NWS is calling for over 30mph winds and gusts to 50mph and several inches of rain..that is not a breezy rainy day for those who have to travel. Safe travels to our kids or anyone that needs to travel the begining of the week.

I guess depends on your comfort level in driving, would be no big deal to me, I go storm chasing and have been very close to a small tornado (unknowingly however) but yes safe travels to all in the hoiliday season. And as of right now NWS is saying those gusts will be for very far eastern LI and new england, thats not us, could change though with a western track of the storm.

rb924119 wrote:Only saying this in jest, but “if we couldn’t laugh, we’d all go insane.” A little musical reference for any parrot heads out here haha

We should start a petition to the NHC for Jman to be able to sit in on a hurricane hunter mission, and maybe that would satisfy his fascination of wind for a while haha

Kidding! Love ya, buddy!

Hell nooo lol, I have seen what it is like on youtube I would be so sick, never said I wanted to fly in it. My dad has his pilots license and he won';t fly except on near completely calm days.

rb924119 wrote:Hey, Cp, maybe you can help us with who to contact? I know you have a lot of experience with writing and petitioning government bodies involved with weather, so your expertise would be much appreciated

Ohhh no don't get him involved in this, he will likely have them chain me to the wing in a cat 5.

So if this is banter, please let me know and I apologize. I am honestly just confused. RB is talking about maybe snow everyone, jman is saying just a breezy rain storm, someone else said flooding. What is most likely to happen? Again sorry if it is off topic.

Definitely helps thank you

quote="rb924119"]

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:So if this is banter, please let me know and I apologize. I am honestly just confused. RB is talking about maybe snow everyone, jman is saying just a breezy rain storm, someone else said flooding. What is most likely to happen? Again sorry if it is off topic.

Not banter at all! My contention has been that the threat of SOME snow is real with this storm, but it wouldn’t be all snow. It would be rain to start for everybody, and then transition to snow as it went on. Areas north and west of the coastal plain, and at higher elevations are favored for this more than the coast, but the coast isn’t completely out of the game either. Based on current guidance, Jman’s outlook is more accurate than mine, with a mostly or all-rain event for everybody, though as I said earlier, I have my hesitations about accepting this outcome at face value.

Does that help at all?[/quote]

there will be potential for flooding issues but not sure how severe. Winds look unimpressive by NWS however models say differently, so we will see. R no offense as you are skilled far beyond me but I do not see this giving snoe even to people in northern NE.

00z NAM would be intriguing if it went out further. More dig on that polar vort.

I’m out tonight but quick sneak peeks and there appears to be a disconnect between the vorticity in the mid levels vs upper levels. Could prevent or at least limit any significant precip with wave two.

NWS seems to be thinking these winds may have more creedance, not unexpected if you see the SR models, normally we only see the darkest purple at 850's look at what we have got going in the upper atmosphere, holy smokes! If anyone has the 925's or surface please post. Wind advisories and HWW are up. IMO it will all be HWW when comes to go time, yes I know I am reverting back but NWS was reeling me back. Should also be noted this is pretty long duration for instance my WA is from sunday night to monday noon. I am expecting a HWW for this area too IMO.



CTZ005>007-NJZ006-NYZ071>074-162300-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.231218T0500Z-231218T1700Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Hudson-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-
340 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO NOON EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven
and Northern Middlesex Counties. In New Jersey, Hudson County.
In New York, Southern Westchester, New York (Manhattan), Bronx
and Richmond (Staten Island) Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight Sunday night to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

___________________________________________________
_______________________DEZ003-004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-162200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WI.Y.0010.231217T2300Z-231218T1200Z/
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Freehold,
Sandy Hook, Jackson, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City,
Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest
356 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...East to southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50
mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Delaware and central and southern
New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a some power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds should occur late
Sunday evening through the early morning hours of Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects, including holiday
decorations.
_______________________________
CTZ008>012-NYZ075-078>081-176>179-162300-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.231218T0500Z-231218T1700Z/
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
340 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:there will be potential for flooding issues but not sure how severe. Winds look unimpressive by NWS however models say differently, so we will see. R no offense as you are skilled far beyond me but I do not see this giving snoe even to people in northern NE.

No offense taken lol you’re entitled to your own opinion haha frankly, I love the debate because it’s all opportunity to engage about something we all love, teach some things, learn some things, and have a few laughs along the way

Based on your opinion, though, you shouldn’t check out the 00z ICON and RGEM; you’ll be disappointed

Okay I wont look haha, hoping here as much as anyonme to see something nice after copious rain.

JB posted the 00z 3km nam gusts and yikes!! Yrah i know its the NAM and the hi-res but if this played out we would have massive outages comparable to a strong TS.

oh boy, most of the models (except GFS) are really juiced, forecasting 3-4" of rain for NENJ. This will really cause flooding issues, as we have many streams and smaller rivers running through the county. NWS Upton official forecast as of 3:30 am is just about 3" with no flood watch, hopefully they will post one later today.

Dunnzoo wrote:oh boy, most of the models (except GFS) are really juiced, forecasting 3-4" of rain for NENJ. This will really cause flooding issues, as we have many streams and smaller rivers running through the county. NWS Upton official forecast as of 3:30 am is just about 3" with no flood watch, hopefully they will post one later today.

You're right,Janet, rivers and streams are already high from the large amounts of rain we have gotten since November 1. 3-4 inches is going to cause trouble.I can see floods in Mahwah NJ, my old home town, if the Ramapo River floods, which it has times before.Lodi will have issues as well as Hackensack, areas prone to flooding.Keep us posted on what happens down by you.

NWS Upton always underplay every storm until 16-24 hours before hand. When we realize this we'll be not shocked when then come out with their forecast as they have.   

Its going to be a humdinger of a storm. Any Christmas Decorations outside are susceptible to the winds. Waiting to see what track tjis shall take and the effects to the pattern ahead.

amugs wrote:NWS Upton always underplay every storm until 16-24 hours before hand. When we realize this we'll be not shocked when then come out with their forecast as they have.   

Its going to be a humdinger of a storm. Any Christmas Decorations outside are susceptible to the winds. Waiting to see what track tjis shall take and the effects to the pattern ahead.

see jb post i posted above of the gusts on 3km nam as high as 80 to 100mph. Even well inland 50mph into central nys. Coast 65 to 75 mph on that run. The higher mainly over water. That run too is far west i believe thats why and i think nws may be agree. I have to look at their discusdion. Id take 10 to 15mph off the 3km nam but thats still really not good. Mom your concern is real and nws bumped up the winds significantly in latest briefing. I think it could go up even more in tonights unless a far offshore run is the final outcome. The rain will def be a issue some places. Have not seen bronx river but it doesnt take much and many urban low lying aread. May be a work from home day monday. I hate the inflatables but may be watching them fly by if im up lol. I expect power putages msybe even widespread if the more extreme occurs.

I'm assuming any talk of snow for Tuesday/Wednesday is no longer even a possibility.

Please no more MJO dot plot graphics. I find them about as reliable more than a week out as the 60-90 forecast on AccuWeather.