Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

[rb924119]

12z GFS through 30 looks more amplified.

[heehaw453]

The 12Z RGEM. The snow line can shift 25-30 miles NW or SE IMO from what you see here.

[rb924119]

12z GFS through 30 looks more amplified.

Confirmed. Man, this keeps up and even those of us north and west change over lol What is going on.....

[heehaw453]

12Z GFS 25 or 30 miles either side way NW or SE of this line IMO. That's the wiggle room.

[rb924119]

I'm really trying to figure out why this is coming so far northwest, and the only thing that I can think of is that the anomalous moisture transport from the southern stream is doing its dirty work. As that moisture is lifted and forced to condense, it's releasing more latent heat which is allowing the heights to rise more. You can see this in the trends of the jet structure, where the northern jet keeps trending further northwest, which means that the forcing for ascent that's associated with it also keeps shifting further northwest. That said, I am VERY surprised that this single factor is overriding tropical and hemispheric support for a further southeast evolution. One can make the argument for the -PNA, but if you look closely, you'll note that there actually is a ridge oriented in a southwest-northeast fashion from southern California to southeastern Montana, it's just not overly strong. That placement, though, should partially offset the latent heat release, and leads me to more bewilderment.

I guess I'm just going to wait and see what happens with this through tonight, because I can't reconcile this right now. Plus, I have to get to work (oh joy lol).

[frank 638]

This storm is driving everybody crazy lol

[rb924119]

12Z GFS 25 or 30 miles either side way NW or SE of this line IMO. That's the wiggle room.

Agree, buddy, and that still keeps the I-95 Corridor in play. At least for now lol

[rb924119]

This storm is driving everybody crazy lol

My current status:

[aiannone]

12z GFS. Can the heavy snows get any closer to me without being over my house? I mean it snows a foot over the sound for **** sake lol

[amugs]

NAM's are N and warmer, EPS just shifted N as well. Time will tell if this will shift SE or if they will be right but the last 2 models runs have been mal.
HRRR is not good anyone S of the mountains in NNJ.

RECON flight sinto the system to give us a better idea.

OMG GFS takes a wild jump N - forget snowmaps!

[Sponsored content]