JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

FWIW the 18z HRRR and the 12z 3k NAM seem to keep the heaviest rain in the NW portion of the state which is where the heaviest snow pack is. The flooding will be nasty and I am concerned that while what we will see later and tomorrow will be bad but that next storm while it probably wont be as intense as this one will be it wont have to be to cause very serious flooding. If we get a general 1.5-3 inches with this one and 1-2 inches with the next it will be very bad

phil155 wrote:FWIW the 18z HRRR and the 12z 3k NAM seem to keep the heaviest rain in the NW portion of the state which is where the heaviest snow pack is. The flooding will be nasty and I am concerned that while what we will see later and tomorrow will be bad but that next storm while it probably wont be as intense as this one will be it wont have to be to cause very serious flooding. If we get a general 1.5-3 inches with this one and 1-2 inches with the next it will be very bad

Yes I made mention of this yesterday as 1-2-3 punch. They always say things come in 3's. I think the flooding from this one will be serious enough and Sat will only exacerbate it more as rivers will be cresting mid to late week.

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:FWIW the 18z HRRR and the 12z 3k NAM seem to keep the heaviest rain in the NW portion of the state which is where the heaviest snow pack is. The flooding will be nasty and I am concerned that while what we will see later and tomorrow will be bad but that next storm while it probably wont be as intense as this one will be it wont have to be to cause very serious flooding. If we get a general 1.5-3 inches with this one and 1-2 inches with the next it will be very bad

Yes I made mention of this yesterday as 1-2-3 punch. They always say things come in 3's. I think the flooding from this one will be serious enough and Sat will only exacerbate it more as rivers will be cresting mid to late week.

Hopefully after the next system we get into a colder pattern that can lock in for a time. The rivers, streams and even the ground will need some time to get back to something more normal

Still very calm here but the sky is dark and very ominous, lets see if this storm verifies. Sounds like its packing a punch in PA and northern NY so we shall see. Also if you follow its progression on models by the 850 wind maps you can see it increasingly intensifies as it heads east hitting its highest levels as it passes NJ NY CT RI MA and then offshore.

amugs wrote:

Well the damage will be done by then, what's the model show for tonight? That's amazing how quickly it will cut off. What is that model anyways?

Wind is picking up here now, just the last 15 minutes.Steady rain.

jmanley32 wrote:Still very calm here but the sky is dark and very ominous, lets see if this storm verifies. Sounds like it’s packing a punch in PA and northern NY so we shall see. Also if you follow its progression on models by the 850 wind maps you can see it increasingly intensifies as it heads east hitting its highest levels as it passes NJ NY CT RI MA and then offshore.

steady rain ️ going and the winds are starting to pick up nothing crazy yet .
Also con ed call my house to remind us about this storm .i already have my candles ,flashlights and batteries on standby along with blankets

One thing I have been looking at one the short range models is that squall line, it looks like it will weaken or almost collapse on some of the models as it move east across the state. I think without that line holding together strongest winds will have a harder time really making their way down to the surface . Just my opinion on that

frank 638 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Still very calm here but the sky is dark and very ominous, lets see if this storm verifies. Sounds like it’s packing a punch in PA and northern NY so we shall see. Also if you follow its progression on models by the 850 wind maps you can see it increasingly intensifies as it heads east hitting its highest levels as it passes NJ NY CT RI MA and then offshore.

steady rain ️ going and the winds are starting to pick up nothing crazy yet .
Also con ed call my house to remind us about this storm .i already have my candles ,flashlights and batteries on standby along with blankets

The power company here did not reach out, shows how much they care lol

Speaking of power companies. IIRC, the bucket trucks can only service outages in less then 35mph. Not sure if that's sustained or gust. Anyone know?

First drops fell here around 11am, but didn't get steady until noon. Now it's ponding on roads and the backyard is getting mighty swampy. And it just got even darker still. The town called three times since last night, and this last time informed us that NJ has a state of emergency starting at 5pm.

NJBear wrote:Speaking of power companies.  IIRC, the bucket trucks can only service outages in less then 35mph.  Not sure if that's sustained or gust.  Anyone know?

I thought it was any winds, sustained or gusts, over 30 mph.

Welcome Bear! Where in NJ are you located? I'm guessing bear country in Sussex or Warren.

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:I think I am confused because places north of us are getting wind. Mind yiu I would love it not to happen. Also RB I thought you lived in LBI.

quote="rb924119"]

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:So far zero wind at the Jersey Shore. I guess it looks like the wind will not verify for us.

Give it time.

[/quote]

I did, but I’m in the process of moving back to PA for my secondary business haha I just recently updated my location in my profile a couple days ago lol

Sounds like we dodged a bullet then.

phil155 wrote:One thing I have been looking at one the short range models is that squall line, it looks like it will weaken or almost collapse on some of the models as it move east across the state. I think without that line holding together strongest winds will have a harder time really making their way down to the surface . Just my opinion on that

SENJsnowman wrote:

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:I think I am confused because places north of us are getting wind. Mind yiu I would love it not to happen. Also RB I thought you lived in LBI.

quote="rb924119"]

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:So far zero wind at the Jersey Shore. I guess it looks like the wind will not verify for us.

Give it time.

I know rb was smart enough to reside on LBI two winters ago when coastal Ocean county netted almost 3 feet of snow in a single January. But before that and after that? That carpetbagger wanted nothing to do with these parts.   [/quote]


Hahahaha dumb luck my friend. Don’t worry, now that I’m moving up here, it’ll snow like crazy down there soon enough. That seems to be how it goes haha And hey! I’ve been spending my summers there ever since I was 8, and before that my family has been vacationing there for decades, so I’m *almost* a local

phil155 wrote:FWIW the 18z HRRR and the 12z 3k NAM seem to keep the heaviest rain in the NW portion of the state which is where the heaviest snow pack is. The flooding will be nasty and I am concerned that while what we will see later and tomorrow will be bad but that next storm while it probably wont be as intense as this one will be it wont have to be to cause very serious flooding. If we get a general 1.5-3 inches with this one and 1-2 inches with the next it will be very bad

This is a great point! You’ll be starting everything with a higher base point, because most of our rivers won’t have fully receded yet.

NJBear wrote:Speaking of power companies.  IIRC, the bucket trucks can only service outages in less then 35mph.  Not sure if that's sustained or gust.  Anyone know?

Yup thats any bucket truck across county, they can blow over, sustained.

jmanley32 wrote:Still very calm here but the sky is dark and very ominous, lets see if this storm verifies. Sounds like its packing a punch in PA and northern NY so we shall see. Also if you follow its progression on models by the 850 wind maps you can see it increasingly intensifies as it heads east hitting its highest levels as it passes NJ NY CT RI MA and then offshore.

Definitely got breezier here now, but still not overly concerning……yet. Finished with 2.5” snow before the changeover.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

Well the damage will be done by then, what's the model show for tonight? That's amazing how quickly it will cut off. What is that model anyways?

I think this is a blend of NWS WFO forecast grids…? Mugs can correct me if I’m wrong.

For Newark, you can choose other sites in your area. Gives you an idea of when to expect winds/gusts.


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=40.7241&textField2=-74.1732&site=okx&unit=0&dd=&bw=

National radar is impressive. A river of moisture pouring rain from the Gulf to Toronto. You can see the squall line starting to form, moving up through the Carolinas and the Virginias. That is an absolute firehose. Central and SE PA getting hammered atm.

essexcountypete wrote:

NJBear wrote:Speaking of power companies.  IIRC, the bucket trucks can only service outages in less then 35mph.  Not sure if that's sustained or gust.  Anyone know?

I thought it was any winds, sustained or gusts, over 30 mph.

Welcome Bear! Where in NJ are you located? I'm guessing bear country in Sussex or Warren.

Whitehouse, Hunterdon. Thanks.

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Sounds like we dodged a bullet then.

phil155 wrote:One thing I have been looking at one the short range models is that squall line, it looks like it will weaken or almost collapse on some of the models as it move east across the state. I think without that line holding together strongest winds will have a harder time really making their way down to the surface . Just my opinion on that

I dunno about that, yes I see it dies down but I think with a lack of inversion winds will still mix down, but as rb said its a tough forecast.

jmanley32 wrote:

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Sounds like we dodged a bullet then.

phil155 wrote:One thing I have been looking at one the short range models is that squall line, it looks like it will weaken or almost collapse on some of the models as it move east across the state. I think without that line holding together strongest winds will have a harder time really making their way down to the surface . Just my opinion on that

I dunno about that, yes I see it dies down but I think with a lack of inversion winds will still mix down, but as rb said its a tough forecast.

I may be guilty of some wishful thinking, without power the pump in my basement will not work

Dunnzoo wrote:For Newark, you can choose other sites in your area. Gives you an idea of when to expect winds/gusts.


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=40.7241&textField2=-74.1732&site=okx&unit=0&dd=&bw=

How do you change the area?

Uh oh.  From the 3:30 Mount Holly NWS discussion.