JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian is much wetter. Widespread 3" amounts. Even 3.5" in north-central jersey. Looks like Morristown area.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian is much wetter. Widespread 3" amounts. Even 3.5" in north-central jersey. Looks like Morristown area.

If you look close and count the levels of purple thas actually 4-4.5...

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... *Key Points* * A significant storm system will impact the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. * Heavy rain, and river and coastal flooding are increasingly likely with this system. See hydrology section below. * Strong winds with the potential for 45 to 60 mph gusts, highest along the coast, Tuesday night into early Wednesday are also possible. A major storm system will impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with heavy rain and both river and coastal flooding. Models have been in good overall agreement for sometime now in taking a strengthening low northward across the Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night, sending a strong frontal system into the region. Deep-layered lift with the potential for record breaking PWAT values (1.25-1.40"), is setting the stage for heavy rainfall to overspread the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates for about a 6-h timeframe will be between 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with locally higher rates possible. This will result in a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts. A strong SE flow will likely enhance orographic lift for areas west of NYC up into portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT. NBM probabilities for greater than 2 inches are near 100 percent with much of the area greater than 50 percent for exceeding 3 inches. In addition, snowpack across portions of the area may include up to an inch liquid equivalent. This combined with saturated soils, high streamflow, and low FFG, points to the greatest potential of widespread flooding across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. WPC also has placed this area under a Moderate Risk of exceeding flash flood guidance. Many of the faster responding streams and rivers across this area will likely go into flood with these forecast rainfall amounts. Several river forecast points are also forecast to reach moderate benchmarks. Thus, a Flood Watch is in effect for these areas. There will likely be refinement and expansion of these areas in coming days. The heaviest rains will then exit the area by daybreak Wednesday with some lingering rain possible as the upper low/trough move through the area. Another potential hazard will be high winds, especially along the coasts with SE gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. A high wind watch has been issued for LI and may very well need to be expanded to the CT coast in later forecasts. Elsewhere, Wind Advisory level winds are possible elsewhere. At this time, used a blend of the NBM and NBMexp which seemed to best represent the wind and gust potential based on model soundings.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian is much wetter. Widespread 3" amounts. Even 3.5" in north-central jersey. Looks like Morristown area.

If you look close and count the levels of purple thas actually 4-4.5...

I think the lightest shade of pink/purple starts the 2” mark

Frank_Wx wrote:Hi Res NAM wind gusts



00z GFS wind gusts

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian is much wetter. Widespread 3" amounts. Even 3.5" in north-central jersey. Looks like Morristown area.

If you look close and count the levels of purple thas actually 4-4.5...

I think the lightest shade of pink/purple starts the 2” mark

this will be catastrophic for the areas that were flooded not long ago.

MONSTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.. MULTI-STATE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
Here we are again! We are at another cross roads on whether to accept the idea of a 70-80mph wind gust potential from MD to ME!

Wind forecasting is a big challenge as a forecaster needs to factor in how much wind… pic.twitter.com/c5VRvXLsdW

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 8, 2024

amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

MONSTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.. MULTI-STATE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
Here we are again! We are at another cross roads on whether to accept the idea of a 70-80mph wind gust potential from MD to ME!

Wind forecasting is a big challenge as a forecaster needs to factor in how much wind… pic.twitter.com/c5VRvXLsdW

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 8, 2024

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

MONSTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.. MULTI-STATE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
Here we are again! We are at another cross roads on whether to accept the idea of a 70-80mph wind gust potential from MD to ME!

Wind forecasting is a big challenge as a forecaster needs to factor in how much wind… pic.twitter.com/c5VRvXLsdW

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 8, 2024

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

rb924119 wrote:I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

MONSTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.. MULTI-STATE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
Here we are again! We are at another cross roads on whether to accept the idea of a 70-80mph wind gust potential from MD to ME!

Wind forecasting is a big challenge as a forecaster needs to factor in how much wind… pic.twitter.com/c5VRvXLsdW

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 8, 2024

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

Upton will wait.

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

MONSTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.. MULTI-STATE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
Here we are again! We are at another cross roads on whether to accept the idea of a 70-80mph wind gust potential from MD to ME!

Wind forecasting is a big challenge as a forecaster needs to factor in how much wind… pic.twitter.com/c5VRvXLsdW

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 8, 2024

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

Upton will wait.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

MONSTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.. MULTI-STATE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
Here we are again! We are at another cross roads on whether to accept the idea of a 70-80mph wind gust potential from MD to ME!

Wind forecasting is a big challenge as a forecaster needs to factor in how much wind… pic.twitter.com/c5VRvXLsdW

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 8, 2024

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

MONSTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.. MULTI-STATE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
Here we are again! We are at another cross roads on whether to accept the idea of a 70-80mph wind gust potential from MD to ME!

Wind forecasting is a big challenge as a forecaster needs to factor in how much wind… pic.twitter.com/c5VRvXLsdW

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 8, 2024

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

And you don't think the Jersey coast?? LOL  we already have high winter watch posted..

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.

what sbout over here do you think the met above could b right could we really see close to if not hurricane force gusts?

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.

what sbout over here do you think the met above could b right could we really see close to if not hurricane force gusts?

I haven’t looked yet, but I will tonight after work. However, it seems like a setup where the atmospheric column will be pretty isothermal through the boundary layer (meaning the temperatures are approximately the same through 850 hPa). This would mean that there’s no inversion, and momentum transfer would be efficient, and allow the high winds to mix down, especially with any convection. So yeah, at face value, his thoughts seem valid to me.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.

what sbout over here do you think the met above could b right could we really see close to if not hurricane force gusts?

I haven’t looked yet, but I will tonight after work. However, it seems like a setup where the atmospheric column will be pretty isothermal through the boundary layer (meaning the temperatures are approximately the same through 850 hPa). This would mean that there’s no inversion, and momentum transfer would be efficient, and allow the high winds to mix down, especially with any convection. So yeah, at face value, his thoughts seem valid to me.

I am confused, I thought weak inversion meant the winds wouldn't mix down, inversion is the opposite you want it to be weak? Yeah def let us know ur thoughts later. gotta ready Upton's disco not sure if a new one is out and if they explain why they are holding off on wind headlines for NYC are and CT.

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

MONSTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.. MULTI-STATE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
Here we are again! We are at another cross roads on whether to accept the idea of a 70-80mph wind gust potential from MD to ME!

Wind forecasting is a big challenge as a forecaster needs to factor in how much wind… pic.twitter.com/c5VRvXLsdW

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 8, 2024

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

And you don't think the Jersey coast?? LOL  we already have high winter watch posted..

Didn't mention them cuz as you said you have a HWW, I dunno what engraved invitation Upton is waiting for, literally HWW all way to south of NYC (Atlantic city I believe) then nothing then LI and RI/MA. NYC area, coastal CT have nothing, As i said guess they may be waiting to see if the inversion might allow for those insane numbers to verify.

amugs wrote:Ida 2.0 peeps, prepare the ark and the generators is all I am saying. call it hype or what you want but models are noty backing down from winds nor flooding potentital.
Jersey shore will have possible moderate to major coastal flooding as well. Upton playing politicas again by utter silence or waiting?
SE winds will rake the area 40 -50 MPH inland and LI and Jersey Shore up to 65/70mph is not out of the question.
Unless we see models backing off this is a worry.
NNJ does not do well with SE winds nor does the shore.