JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA

Agreed Scott…pleasantly surprised we’re even talking snow. But good things happen when you get a well timed PNA spike. I wish for northern stream interaction but I think I need to eliminate this idea from my mind. El Niño is going to Nino.

The transfer to the coast is always a tricky one. Is the secondary too close to the coast? Who suffers from the dreaded area of subsidence? Exactly how deep can the secondary get to pull colder air down to the coast? These are the main questions that enter my mind.

Models are conflicted as they try to solve these questions. We definitely have a long way to go. Gun to my head, based on this seasons trend, N&W should do well again. A nice moderate snowfall possibly. Unfortunately I think the coast will roast. Temps will be in the 50s leading up to the event, and the ULL won’t be south enough to drag in the cold air from the north. MAYBE a minor accumulation on the table. Hope I’m wrong. But at least it’s something to track

Frank_Wx wrote:Agreed Scott…pleasantly surprised we’re even talking snow. But good things happen when you get a well timed PNA spike. I wish for northern stream interaction but I think I need to eliminate this idea from my mind. El Niño is going to Nino.

The transfer to the coast is always a tricky one. Is the secondary too close to the coast? Who suffers from the dreaded area of subsidence? Exactly how deep can the secondary get to pull colder air down to the coast? These are the main questions that enter my mind.

Models are conflicted as they try to solve these questions. We definitely have a long way to go. Gun to my head, based on this seasons trend, N&W should do well again. A nice moderate snowfall possibly. Unfortunately I think the coast will roast. Temps will be in the 50s leading up to the event, and the ULL won’t be south enough to drag in the cold air from the north. MAYBE a minor accumulation on the table. Hope I’m wrong. But at least it’s something to track

"Coast will roast"!  Great phrase, though a sad prediction indeed...

sroc4 wrote:Not a lot changed in my mind overnight.  Models continue to show decent potential for this Sunday into Monday. All the major players are there. IMO a more surpressed soln is way more likely than a primary that cuts too far north and warm soln with an arctic HP on the move the way it is.

We still have a long way to go with this despite it only about 3.5-4.5 days out.  Its going to be really fun to be watching the transfer of the primary to the coast on the real time meso maps, and monitor the where and when and then where the mid level low closes and positions itself. I think there could be surprises both good and bad depending on where you live in real time with this one.  

Buckle up folks. Tracking snow in a shitty pattern. And check your point and click apps. Notice the temp profiles beyond the weekend into next week. They aren’t that warm.

We Track.

GFS says warm up phase 6 HAHAHA!!

Nice posts Sroc and Frank. I agree with you all. I think the models are struggling with 2 aspects 1/does energy consolidate enough for a deepening L, 2/how strong and exactly where is the H going to be placed in Quebec. I think the former is based on whether the h5 trough can tilt neutral as it approaches the coast and the latter I think can be aided by the PNA, but it's coming from the Yukon. It won't make its initial decent towards Quebec until another day from now. So until that is reconciled this is just guess work by the models. But yes the interior IMO is favored as it will be colder there...

Frank_Wx wrote:Agreed Scott…pleasantly surprised we’re even talking snow. But good things happen when you get a well timed PNA spike. I wish for northern stream interaction but I think I need to eliminate this idea from my mind. El Niño is going to Nino.

The transfer to the coast is always a tricky one. Is the secondary too close to the coast? Who suffers from the dreaded area of subsidence? Exactly how deep can the secondary get to pull colder air down to the coast? These are the main questions that enter my mind.

Models are conflicted as they try to solve these questions. We definitely have a long way to go. Gun to my head, based on this seasons trend, N&W should do well again. A nice moderate snowfall possibly. Unfortunately I think the coast will roast. Temps will be in the 50s leading up to the event, and the ULL won’t be south enough to drag in the cold air from the north. MAYBE a minor accumulation on the table. Hope I’m wrong. But at least it’s something to track

For the record I disagree with the phrase the coast will roast.  There is a weak s/w that moves through Sat and by late sat the coastal plain through mid to maybe the northern third of NJ is down to the low 40's high 30's at worst depending on the model.  The real key for the coastal plain will be how the mid levels behave.  Upon the initial transfer of the slp to the coast the surface and mid levels are still warm, but as the new low gets going where and how quick the 700 and 850mb levels can close and where the slp is situated, will determine the fate for the coastal plain.  Once they close off, or IF they close off, but when they do the door that opens is not to a marginal air mass.  It's to a arctic one. So IF the HP is far enough south and the mid level lows close off early enough mid levels temps will crash hard, and the surface temps will follow.  The dynamics of this process will def be very challenging to see esp in an operational model 3 days out.  We will also prob find that even meso model's will struggle with te finer details of this process such that an area of 15-25mils difference can mean the difference between a change over or not.  I personally would not throw in any towel until late Sunday regardless of where you live.

And it hasnt been mentioned yet but quickly looking at the 200-300mb jet streak, its exact orientation will play a role as well.

Not sure they’ll roast either. But the air mass is dog shit, frankly. The need for the coast is to have a more suppressive TPV/HP below it helping temps but actually risking shearing the storm out. I think that’s a bigger risk currently than straight suppression. Some guidance is showing this and it results in a non-amped strung out spotty precip mess for the coastal plain, whereas a more amped scenario just means rain to 84. Im not sure there is a middle ground without literally everything coming together perfectly, which is never likely and makes those setups so special. Certainly trackable for the next couple of days and if people manage their expectations (by that I mean zero snow. Maybe white rain for an hour at the end) then maybe there can be some nice surprises. I just think the overall antecedent setup is too hostile and that points to this not working, which is fine imo because it was always going to be a rather long shot, regardless of what the 12z Euro showed yesterday. I think that demonstrated pretty close to the best case scenario that is highly unlikely…BUT…we still TRACK.

MattyICE wrote:Not sure they’ll roast either. But the air mass is dog shit, frankly. The need for the coast is to have a more suppressive TPV/HP below it helping temps but actually risking shearing the storm out. I think that’s a bigger risk currently than straight suppression. Some guidance is showing this and it results in a non-amped strung out spotty precip mess for the coastal plain, whereas a more amped scenario just means rain to 84. Im not sure there is a middle ground without literally everything coming together perfectly, which is never likely and makes those setups so special. Certainly trackable for the next couple of days and if people manage their expectations (by that I mean zero snow. Maybe white rain for an hour at the end) then maybe there can be some nice surprises. I just think the overall antecedent setup is too hostile and that points to this not working, which is fine imo because it was always going to be a rather long shot, regardless of what the 12z Euro showed yesterday. I think that demonstrated pretty close to the best case scenario that is highly unlikely…BUT…we still TRACK.

Well said. The Euro ain't what it used to be... 5 years ago I would have looked at the EPS inside of D5 and been excited. I looked at it yesterday with many shades of doubt and figured it'd change its tune.

MattyICE wrote:Not sure they’ll roast either. But the air mass is dog shit, frankly. The need for the coast is to have a more suppressive TPV/HP below it helping temps but actually risking shearing the storm out. I think that’s a bigger risk currently than straight suppression. Some guidance is showing this and it results in a non-amped strung out spotty precip mess for the coastal plain, whereas a more amped scenario just means rain to 84. Im not sure there is a middle ground without literally everything coming together perfectly, which is never likely and makes those setups so special. Certainly trackable for the next couple of days and if people manage their expectations (by that I mean zero snow. Maybe white rain for an hour at the end) then maybe there can be some nice surprises. I just think the overall antecedent setup is too hostile and that points to this not working, which is fine imo because it was always going to be a rather long shot, regardless of what the 12z Euro showed yesterday. I think that demonstrated pretty close to the best case scenario that is highly unlikely…BUT…we still TRACK.

I feel like this summarizes most of our systems this season. All of these are just strung out and spotty, so even when the cold air source is available (whether it be a very cold antecedent air mass like last week, or a cold High up in eastern Canada like this one), the systems are just not cashing in.

We just need one of these suckers to deepen rapidly and tap into that cold air, but they can't seem to get their act together. To borrow Scott's "rebuilding football team" analogy for this winter, it seems our quarterback (the storm(s)) has offensive weapons available (cold High in Canada, ridge out west, 50/50 low) but hasn't learned to use them yet, so our offense can't put up the big scores. He needs some confidence and zip on his throws.
Hope he comes around by late season, or at least takes a step forward next season.

billg315 wrote:

MattyICE wrote:Not sure they’ll roast either. But the air mass is dog shit, frankly. The need for the coast is to have a more suppressive TPV/HP below it helping temps but actually risking shearing the storm out. I think that’s a bigger risk currently than straight suppression. Some guidance is showing this and it results in a non-amped strung out spotty precip mess for the coastal plain, whereas a more amped scenario just means rain to 84. Im not sure there is a middle ground without literally everything coming together perfectly, which is never likely and makes those setups so special. Certainly trackable for the next couple of days and if people manage their expectations (by that I mean zero snow. Maybe white rain for an hour at the end) then maybe there can be some nice surprises. I just think the overall antecedent setup is too hostile and that points to this not working, which is fine imo because it was always going to be a rather long shot, regardless of what the 12z Euro showed yesterday. I think that demonstrated pretty close to the best case scenario that is highly unlikely…BUT…we still TRACK.

I feel like this summarizes most of our systems this season. All of these are just strung out and spotty, so even when the cold air source is available (whether it be a very cold antecedent air mass like last week, or a cold High up in eastern Canada like this one), the systems are just not cashing in.

Yep. Then it’s just annoying because the LP might even take a good track and we’re left unable to fathom an LP in a perfect spot in prime Climo resulting in showers. Or rain to buffalo. Etc.

billg315 wrote:We just need one of these suckers to deepen rapidly and tap into that cold air, but they can't seem to get their act together. To borrow Scott's "rebuilding football team" analogy for this winter, it seems our quarterback (the storm(s)) has offensive weapons available (cold High in Canada, ridge out west, 50/50 low) but hasn't learned to use them yet, so our offense can't put up the big scores. He needs some confidence and zip on his throws.
Hope he comes around by late season, or at least takes a step forward next season.

I'm afraid this winter is stuck in Concussion Protocol

12Z Euro disorganized mess from what yesterday 12Z showed. The trough (2nd pic) leaning positive tilt never allows the consolidation. The best shot is if that h5 through can tilt neutral and the mid-levels close off. Otherwise I don't much of anything with this regardless of what snow maps may or may not show.

850mb vorticity disorganized


500mb vorticity too positively tilted


As far as I'm concerned this is irrelevant for MBY probably be an inch or two at best

heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro disorganized mess from what yesterday 12Z showed. The trough (2nd pic) leaning positive tilt never allows the consolidation. The best shot is if that h5 through can tilt neutral and the mid-levels close off. Otherwise I don't much of anything with this regardless of what snow maps may or may not show.

850mb vorticity disorganized


500mb vorticity too positively tilted


As far as I'm concerned this is irrelevant for MBY probably be an inch or two at best

That PNA looks way less tall than yesterday. And that was the one thing we really had going!

MattyICE wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro disorganized mess from what yesterday 12Z showed. The trough (2nd pic) leaning positive tilt never allows the consolidation. The best shot is if that h5 through can tilt neutral and the mid-levels close off. Otherwise I don't much of anything with this regardless of what snow maps may or may not show.

850mb vorticity disorganized


500mb vorticity too positively tilted


As far as I'm concerned this is irrelevant for MBY probably be an inch or two at best

That PNA looks way less tall than yesterday. And that was the one thing we really had going!  

Yep.  Certainly not helping the s/w development after it transfers.

heehaw453 wrote:

MattyICE wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro disorganized mess from what yesterday 12Z showed. The trough (2nd pic) leaning positive tilt never allows the consolidation. The best shot is if that h5 through can tilt neutral and the mid-levels close off. Otherwise I don't much of anything with this regardless of what snow maps may or may not show.

850mb vorticity disorganized


500mb vorticity too positively tilted


As far as I'm concerned this is irrelevant for MBY probably be an inch or two at best

That PNA looks way less tall than yesterday. And that was the one thing we really had going!  

Yep.  Certainly not helping the s/w development after it transfers.

Windshield wipers! Cuz without unfettered optimism right now , we got nuthin!

SENJsnowman wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

MattyICE wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro disorganized mess from what yesterday 12Z showed. The trough (2nd pic) leaning positive tilt never allows the consolidation. The best shot is if that h5 through can tilt neutral and the mid-levels close off. Otherwise I don't much of anything with this regardless of what snow maps may or may not show.

850mb vorticity disorganized


500mb vorticity too positively tilted


As far as I'm concerned this is irrelevant for MBY probably be an inch or two at best

That PNA looks way less tall than yesterday. And that was the one thing we really had going!  

Yep.  Certainly not helping the s/w development after it transfers.

Windshield wipers! Cuz without unfettered optimism right now , we got nuthin!

Lol. Fair. I’m always on board for the windshield affect - but I usually expect that when the setup is a bit more neutral. This one is pretty putrid and my heart will pine for a comeback, but my mind says the typical wiper affect won’t apply to this storm. We’ll see!

Until we see the wipers move the other way I agree with Matty...

sroc4 wrote:

Irish wrote:Thx for the detailed write-up, Sroc.  So, if I'm reading this correctly, most likely no matter how it shakes out, the coast has a high % of an all rain event?  

Irish, I hesitate to use any sort of definitive adjectives etc to describe chances for anyone particular in general, except to say that since we are in a warm phase of the MJO and the air mass leading into the weekend is less than ideal, and the pattern as a whole is less than ideal for winter weather outcomes in the north east, if you live along the coastal plain you should not expect to see white, but simultaneously understand that the chances are def not zero percent.  Gun to head for my back yard on Long Island I give it <10% chance at this time.  That WILL change, for better or worse, over the next 3-4 days.  Off the coast percentages increase a little, but I think 50/50 is the best anyone should consider up through this am regardless of where you live.  

So for me, this one will be more in the thrill of the tracking and the learning that comes along with it.  If any white ends up IMBY, even if its white rain(non accumulating snow falling from the sky), I will consider that a win, given the current state of the atmosphere....again this is my current expectation.

Cautious optimism, with realistic expectations

Temps not that far off with this. Right now looks like a cold rain Sunday upper 30s most of the day. If we could just get the right upper air dynamics this could be workable. But alas . . .

I don't think I can recall one cold H pressure getting parked over Quebec Jan/Feb. Definitely not coinciding with moisture. The basic synoptics are there IMO if the storm can deepen. The initial moisture with a weak storm isn't going to do too much for most in this forum outside very elevated areas as the initial air mass is garbage. Models could absolutely change up tomorrow. But to sroc's point expect nothing and work up from there.

heehaw453 wrote:I don't think I can recall one cold H pressure getting parked over Quebec Jan/Feb. Definitely not coinciding with moisture. The basic synoptics are there IMO if the storm can deepen. The initial moisture with a weak storm isn't going to do too much for most in this forum outside very elevated areas as the initial air mass is garbage. Models could absolutely change up tomorrow. But to sroc's point expect nothing and work up from there.

18z GFS came in with a slightly better ridge out west along with a slightly amped system which in turn gave SNE bigger snowfall totals than the 12Z run. Baby steps. What I’d like to see is that trough to become more neutral which would really help our cause. We still have time for changes. 0z runs tonight would be a good start.

Need 150 mile shift south of the L to where the 00Z RGEM has it. We've talked about WV being the max latitude you'd want to see L pressure move toward before it redevelops. SW PA Pittsburgh is no bueno. It's not necessarily the L is too strong it's the H is too far away and not pressing enough. I guess another 24-36 hours of watching this is in order for changes to the H since it's really not been ejected out of AK/Yukon just yet.

0z Nam was damn close

aiannone wrote:0z Nam was damn close

I'm good right where it is, but that's probably not the final outcome.

Just not enough umph to the PNA ridge. HP trending just a tad too far north for my liking and 2-4mb’s weaker than a few days ago. All else seems to fall in place from there. Primary gets just a tad too far north as a result. Transfer and secondary take an “ok” track, but because the HP is just a tad too far north the antecedent airmass rules. Mid level stay a bit too progressive, north, and weak when they close. This all but seals the deal for the coastal plain if correct.

While a few of the models I was hoping for went  warm, there are still a couple that are hanging on to their he colder solns.  It’s still only Friday so there is still time for things to swing the other way. Again I’ve seen cold air, when on the move win out later in the season regardless of what models say.

Happy Friday

Here’s a look at what this mornings NAM and GFS are putting out in terms of snow. N&W is saved by a primary low that transfers to a secondary just off the coast of NJ. There’s enough forcing at 700mb to enable a steady snowfall that should deliver 3-6”. It’s a tricky forecast though. If the primary holds on any longer than currently modeled, you will also warm up your mid levels and find that snow accumulations get cut in half. The NAM in particular tries to get the snow down into NYC and LI, but I’m not buying it. It develops the secondary too far south for my liking. Outside of N&W, I think we’re looking at a cold and rainy Sunday. Pasta fagiol weather