JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA

Just not enough umph to the PNA ridge. HP trending just a tad too far north for my liking and 2-4mb’s weaker than a few days ago. All else seems to fall in place from there. Primary gets just a tad too far north as a result. Transfer and secondary take an “ok” track, but because the HP is just a tad too far north the antecedent airmass rules. Mid level stay a bit too progressive, north, and weak when they close. This all but seals the deal for the coastal plain if correct.

While a few of the models I was hoping for went  warm, there are still a couple that are hanging on to their he colder solns.  It’s still only Friday so there is still time for things to swing the other way. Again I’ve seen cold air, when on the move win out later in the season regardless of what models say.

Happy Friday

Here’s a look at what this mornings NAM and GFS are putting out in terms of snow. N&W is saved by a primary low that transfers to a secondary just off the coast of NJ. There’s enough forcing at 700mb to enable a steady snowfall that should deliver 3-6”. It’s a tricky forecast though. If the primary holds on any longer than currently modeled, you will also warm up your mid levels and find that snow accumulations get cut in half. The NAM in particular tries to get the snow down into NYC and LI, but I’m not buying it. It develops the secondary too far south for my liking. Outside of N&W, I think we’re looking at a cold and rainy Sunday. Pasta fagiol weather

The H is going to be a day late and a dollar short IMO. Enough evidence to support that. Even so a better antecedent air mass and this would slam dunk 4-8" for the interior. It is what it is.

I like to use snow depth maps when the air mass is marginal. That being said I could see the most highly elevated areas of the interior > 1500' approach 3" with this and Catskills maybe approach 4"+. LHV Orange County an inch or two but towards Damian best shot at 2" with slightly higher elevation.

The rest of us I think we need to wait and there are signs of better fortunes as we approach February.

06Z Euro & GFS positive snow depth respectively

Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s a look at what this mornings NAM and GFS are putting out in terms of snow. N&W is saved by a primary low that transfers to a secondary just off the coast of NJ. There’s enough forcing at 700mb to enable a steady snowfall that should deliver 3-6”. It’s a tricky forecast though. If the primary holds on any longer than currently modeled, you will also warm up your mid levels and find that snow accumulations get cut in half. The NAM in particular tries to get the snow down into NYC and LI, but I’m not buying it. It develops the secondary too far south for my liking. Outside of N&W, I think we’re looking at a cold and rainy Sunday. Pasta fagiol weather

IMHO anyone looking at 10:1 snow maps of the NAM and hoping is going to be disappointed.

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s a look at what this mornings NAM and GFS are putting out in terms of snow. N&W is saved by a primary low that transfers to a secondary just off the coast of NJ. There’s enough forcing at 700mb to enable a steady snowfall that should deliver 3-6”. It’s a tricky forecast though. If the primary holds on any longer than currently modeled, you will also warm up your mid levels and find that snow accumulations get cut in half. The NAM in particular tries to get the snow down into NYC and LI, but I’m not buying it. It develops the secondary too far south for my liking. Outside of N&W, I think we’re looking at a cold and rainy Sunday. Pasta fagiol weather

IMHO anyone looking at 10:1 snow maps of the NAM and hoping is going to be disappointed.

Its probably best to think this way but I wouldnt entirely discount the colder solns just yet, esp for off the immediate coast. Timing and positioning of the slp and the mid level energy will be key. A few hours off in reality or a shift of 25-30miles with any of it could be the diff between rain and 3-6" 48hrs out is a life time for those subtle changes.

12Z GFS trying to suck the coastal plain back in  

Coastal Plain says: We are present and ready!

12z GFS

12z CMC

aiannone wrote:12z GFS

aiannone wrote:12z CMC

Ok, at least we have some model consistency!

So us Coasties are sitting at the bar having a drink.  Sitting across the bar from us is this gorgeos woman(12z GFS) flirting like crazy.  



If we decide to get up and go over to talk to her there is a good chance as we apprach this guy will walk over and claim thats his girlfriend.  




There is a chance we can take her home tonight if we play our cards just right, but the reality is this is who we are going home with.

That’s cold Sroc. I mean that last person might be someone’s mother…
or father…

if you just looked at the surface and see Jan 29 TS you might actually think we're getting a snowstorm area wide.

Aldo Nova said it best...

heehaw453 wrote:if you just looked at the surface and see Jan 29 TS you might actually think we're getting a snowstorm area wide.

Aldo Nova said it best...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPQgfaB3S1c

Impressive. Not the weather. The use of 1980’s one hit wonder.

Well played

I'm 46 at 2 PM. Look at this temp contrast at 1 PM today. Not going to get as warm as originally modelled...

Yes I’m only at 43° in NE NJ!

Even the Jersey Shore is still only in the high 40’s. That warm from must of stalled out more south than expected.

heehaw, Would this have any bearing on Sunday/Monday?

SENJsnowman wrote:That’s cold Sroc. I mean that last person might be someone’s mother…
or father…

Im not saying we are taking home a bad person. Im just saying when it comes to attractiveness the reality is the GFS is the "supermodel" teasing you, but you have no shot. The reality of the outcome for the coast is we are going home with your homely looking, yet wonderful personality, mother...or father.

SENJsnowman wrote:Even the Jersey Shore is still only in the high 40’s. That warm from must of stalled out more south than expected.

heehaw, Would this have any bearing on Sunday/Monday?

IMO no. For your area it will come down to if the storm deepens fast enough as it pushes off the coast. You want that H in Quebec to press more and be more robust coupled with a neutral h5 through to consolidate the storm's mid-levels. No chance for coastal plain with the initial moisture feed. It's only the coastal that gives some slim shot IMO. Again this one slim shot, but give it a week from now and things might start getting more interesting for the coastal plain...

sroc4 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:That’s cold Sroc. I mean that last person might be someone’s mother…
or father…

Im not saying we are taking home a bad person.  Im just saying when it comes to attractiveness the reality is the GFS is the "supermodel" teasing you, but you have no shot.  The reality of the outcome for the coast is we are going home with your homely looking, yet wonderful personality, mother...or father.

Sroc my man, it sounds like you missed my joke. As in, she so damn ugly, is that a woman or a man, I can’t tell. But like they say, if you have to explain your joke, the joke failed.

HeeHaw, since I moved to Jersey in 2012, March snowfall has far surpassed February in coastal Ocean and Monmouth counties. I can’t think of a single memorable Feb snowfall for these parts and that includes Feb ‘21. Would LOVE to change that script this year!

SENJsnowman wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:That’s cold Sroc. I mean that last person might be someone’s mother…
or father…

Im not saying we are taking home a bad person.  Im just saying when it comes to attractiveness the reality is the GFS is the "supermodel" teasing you, but you have no shot.  The reality of the outcome for the coast is we are going home with your homely looking, yet wonderful personality, mother...or father.

Sroc my man, it sounds like you missed my joke. As in, she so damn ugly, is that a woman or a man, I can’t tell. But like they say, if you have to explain your joke, the joke failed.

HeeHaw, since I moved to Jersey in 2012, March snowfall has far surpassed February in coastal Ocean and Monmouth counties. I can’t think of a single memorable Feb snowfall for these parts and that includes Feb ‘21. Would LOVE to change that script this year!

I'm amazed that. March normally is interior for bigger stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if starting next Friday things could be interesting.

Any chance the colder than expected temperatures we’re having today possibly being a sign that colder air may push down further south than modeled come this Sunday?

richb521 wrote:Any chance the colder than expected temperatures we’re having today possibly being a sign that colder air may push down further south than modeled come this Sunday?

There is always a chance Rich. We all likely start as rain. You may be just far enough ff the coast to be ok once the secondary low is established and deepens. My concern though is that the precip may be gone for you by then. In the words of the great Yogi Berra "It aint ova till its ova"

SENJsnowman wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:That’s cold Sroc. I mean that last person might be someone’s mother…
or father…

Im not saying we are taking home a bad person.  Im just saying when it comes to attractiveness the reality is the GFS is the "supermodel" teasing you, but you have no shot.  The reality of the outcome for the coast is we are going home with your homely looking, yet wonderful personality, mother...or father.

Sroc my man, it sounds like you missed my joke. As in, she so damn ugly, is that a woman or a man, I can’t tell. But like they say, if you have to explain your joke, the joke failed.

HeeHaw, since I moved to Jersey in 2012, March snowfall has far surpassed February in coastal Ocean and Monmouth counties. I can’t think of a single memorable Feb snowfall for these parts and that includes Feb ‘21. Would LOVE to change that script this year!

LOL  Its all good. Text messages and chat boards...you def lose some of the flavor of the true context in some of the conversations.  My bad

Yes some of the more aggressive forecasts for this end of week warm-up were overdone. Only got up to about 49* here today and it was a raw/chilly 49*. Earlier this week some forecasts had me in the upper 50s today. Probably doesn't mean much for Sunday though. As pointed out above by heehaw and scott this really depends on the storm intensifying enough to pull in and create it's own cold air source. Except areas N and W where I think the chances of some accumulating snow are pretty decent regardless.

Earlier this week I had co workers saying to me at lunch, it's going to be 60 Friday and a nice weekend and I said I don't buy it this Thaw is short lived. Look at next week's temps are tye storm? 
And the storm is too early as said above, whenever you move up 24hrs a storm will inevitably fail somehow. IF this came in as pronged 2 days ago Sunday night into Modday Monday, tye HP has time to then get in place  and sag a bit S, now it'll feel that LP primary and back off s bit. Paths of least resistance in weather n nature.  Time will tell but 18Z GFS is at the bar looking at the shanty SROC pictured above  still holds onto to a decent snow until it wakes up and shift 75 miles NW. 
Shame......again.
End of the week has a wild set up IF true but that'll change of course.