Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread

[Frank_Wx]

Pretty potent coastal storm will being mainly rain to the area on Sunday. If this system were delayed by just 12 hours, it could have been a sizeable snow event for the area since cold air would be in place. Alas, that is not the case but there is a chance areas north and west of NYC could see backend snow. Backend snow never works out, but it's worth tracking.



12z NAM is nearly 2 inches of rain for the area. Don't forget, there is no blocking so this is a quick moving storm.



6z GFS also showing decent rain



The 00z euro though takes the storm more east and allows cold air to get closer to the coast, so a changeover does occur for areas in eastern PA and right around the Hudson Valley. More like an ice/snow mix though.

The MJO being in phase 6 does not help matters. This supports a southeast ridge to amplify which is why most of us will be seeing rain this go around.

I do think the pattern changes with the AO, PNA, and maybe NAO (this is the wildcard) once we get into early January. There is a lot of energy pivoting around the polar vortex in south central Canada and some phasing could spark a pretty good storm. Models will all be having a difficult time trying to forecast early January.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Frank:

As per the 12Z GFS this looks close enough for the HV to at least get some snow out of it. It's not going to take that much of a jog eastward to have this a 4 plus event for the HV.

I don't rule out the coast yet, but not likely from anything I've seen. But the Euro was further east which is a good trend.

[Frank_Wx]

12z euro is not that impressed. A lot of this comes once the low bombs out near New England. Maybe a coating to 2 inches is possible around the HV area, but I'm betting against it right now. Setup is awful.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Definitely not a good setup right now, but it's still 3 days out.

50 miles north of midtown where I am I do still hold out some hope. I'll wait till tomorrows 12Z before I write it off completely.

[Quietace]

Well, for people NW of 1-95, they need to hope and pray for a strong LP, with some decently heavy precipitation getting thrown back into the area.
Per the 12z Euro, 2m temps are a few degrees above freezing in the whole area (33 to 35 around the coast), and 850s are crashing from 1-2 Celsius down to -1 in the northern burbs first as precip moves in. If the NW burbs get 850s to get below 0C and get heavy precip with a well organized low to cool the lower levels, they might have a chance. The coast has no chance with this but the NW people might have a small chance, if what i stated above happens.
Its more of a wildcard.
But as Frank said, setup is not good, and it is improbable at a significant amount of snow with this system.

[docstox12]

No problem if it stays all rain, can't stand the slop storms.All rain or all snow PLEASE.Paul Pasternak on Accuweather sees that storm Frank is looking at the Jan 3-6 period.We'll get back into snow again soon even if this weekend is a stinker.

We need the rain anyway, after the bone dry conditions this fall.

[HectorO]

I've had enough rain. Yes, fall was dry, but December was a nice start with snow and all. Then the end of the month was a disappointment. Next week looks different though.

[NjWeatherGuy]

The cold air looks to be a late arrival with this one, mostly rain, odd to have a coastal storm with no cold air this time of year but stranger things have happened.

[amugs]

As the old saying goes a Day late and a dollar short!  Without any type of blocking or cold air to work with write this one off and let's look forward to really good snow possibilities from jan1 on. Just one man's opinion.

[docstox12]

Right, Mugsy, lot's of winter left to enjoy snow events.

[Frank_Wx]

Timing:

Starts Sunday around 2pm

Ends Sunday night around midnight

1-2 inches of rain

15-25 mph winds, gusts 30 mph at times

Blah.

[amugs]

Timing:

Starts Sunday around 2pm

Ends Sunday night around midnight

1-2 inches of rain

15-25 mph winds, gusts 30 mph at times

Blah.

Thanks for the update kid but again the blizzard that was being tossed around by the models a week ago and on Monday for NYE is early to the party - giving us ......RAIN......BLAH is right but I love the pattern setup after this event.

A good day to stay inside and watch the last week of football in front of my fireplace with a some homemade Bailey's and Egg Nog!!

[Dunnzoo]

Timing:

Starts Sunday around 2pm

Ends Sunday night around midnight

1-2 inches of rain

15-25 mph winds, gusts 30 mph at times

Blah.

Thanks for the update kid but again the blizzard that was being tossed around by the models a week ago and on Monday for NYE is early to the party - giving us ......RAIN......BLAH is right but I love the pattern setup after this event.

A good day to stay inside and watch the last week of football in front of my fireplace with a some homemade Bailey's and Egg Nog!!

Baileys and eggnog and football.....I'm with you!

[nofoboater]

Baileys and eggnog and football.....I'm with you!
[/quote]

Watching those Packers, Zoo. Rogers is supposedly back.

[oldtimer]

Its amazing when we talk rain 1-2 inches like nothing But when its a snow event we pray for .5 liquid !!

[docstox12]

Baileys and eggnog and football.....I'm with you!

Watching those Packers, Zoo. Rogers is supposedly back.[/quote]

Should be interesting to see how he stands up after that long layoff.Will he be accurate?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm officially giving up on this one for the HV.

As Tom has said earlier and it's why I have had a hard time dismissing this one, it is hard me to believe a coastal this time of year can't find some cold air to work with. However the timing and the path this takes before it reaches the Jersey coast are all terrible.

Bring on the JETS!!!

[amugs]

Courtesy of NWS State College:Clarify the term Nor"easter

Nor'easters can be classified into one of two categories, named after the researcher (J.E. Miller) who first came up with this classification system for East Coast snow storms in 1946:

1) Nor'easters that develop primarily on the Gulf Coast or East Coast along an old cold front, or along the marine/land airmass contrast found on the East Coast, could be considered "classic" Nor'easters. Storms that develop in this manner are referred to as "Miller Type-A" storms. The "Superstorm of March 1993" is considered to have been a "Miller Type-A" storm.

2) Storms that come in from the west (up the Ohio Valley) are usually referred to as "Miller Type-B" storms. These storms produce precipitation in the Midwest/Ohio Valley and have a defined surface low that is moving toward the Appalachian Mountains from the west. As these storms approach the mountains, they lose their coherent/compact surface low center and the low re-develops along the East Coast. When this re-development (a.k.a. "center-jump") happens, the storm can still produce snow over all of the state. But, it will usually produce the most/heaviest/longest snow in NE PA (Potter Co. and east).

Storms that approach from the west ("Miller Type-B") typically move through Pennsylvania faster than Nor'easters, and produce a widespread and more-evenly distributed snowfall (everyone gets a similar amount) versus the "Miller Type-A" storms, and Lake Effect events.

[docstox12]

I'm officially giving up on this one for the HV.  

As Tom has said earlier and it's why I have had a hard time dismissing this one, it is hard me to believe a coastal this time of year can't find some cold air to work with. However the timing and the path this takes before it reaches the Jersey coast are all terrible.

Bring on the JETS!!!

CP, just looked at NWS forecast for this weekends storm.They are saying a possibility of 1-2 inches of back end snow for Orange County.I'll be there.Maybe we can salvage a few inches for the yearly total up there.

[amugs]

Doc and CP here you go.....................Looks like Upton is starting to change their tune about tomorrow evening for the interior.

UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND HOW ISOTHERMAL THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE BECOMES AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...FOR THE INTERIOR
AREAS. IF TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH WITH AN ISOTHERMAL PROFILE
AROUND 00-03Z...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH COULD
ACCUMULATE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS

[Quietace]

Radar is getting more impressive down south.

Hope you Hv folks get a few inches up their.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It would be nice Ace but I'm not counting on it.

[docstox12]

Radar is getting more impressive down south.

Hope you Hv folks get a few inches up their.

Incredible radar this morning.There was your major snowstorm but no cold air.Perfect low track, right from the Gulf.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

One other problem Doc is it's not a perfect low track after it leaves the gulf, goes over land much of the way and passes almost over NYC. Tha's not a good track for us even if there was some cold air around to tap.

Several days ago some models had this going off Delmarva and then near the benchmark, that's when I held out some hope that HV would get some decent snow out of this even without cold air masses to tap. Winds would have been NE to NNE and temperatures up here may have stayed near freezing especially with a stronger low.

Not the case now and hasn't been for several days.

[algae888]

storm is moving quicker than forcast. precip already ending in del. rain looks to end by 6 in nyc metro. I don't think there is any chance of a changeover anywhere.

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