*BLOG* January Thaw & Winter's Return

Late night blog on the long range, talking about the January thaw and when our winter pattern will return...

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/01/fear-not-winter-will-return.html

-Frank

Well, I remeber Accuweather mentioning the winter would not really get cranking until after the middle of January.Let's hope it all comes together so we can have a sustained cold and snowpack period.Have'nt seen that yet.

docstox12 wrote:Well, I remeber Accuweather mentioning the winter would not really get cranking until after the middle of January.Let's hope it all comes together so we can have a sustained cold and snowpack period.Have'nt seen that yet.

Doc,

True, but they also said right after xmass that Jan would be above normal temps wise - contradictory??
IMO I think things will come together for us as Frank explained for the late Jan through early to mid feb which is when we see our stormiest, snowiest time of the winter traditionally.   

Mugs

Yep. If it's not here by mid Feb, things will look dim.

Not sure what to think yet. With nothing in place to hold the cold, these snowpacks can't even last a week.

Same thing going to happen this week.Brutal cold and a warm up for the weekend.

That's the difference between killer winters ('93-'94 and '95-'96) and this winter, sustained cold and snowpack. Not giving up yet as there is a lot more winter left.

I don't mind these breaks. Constant cold becomes annoying at times. I like that we are able to mix in warmer temps. I just wish it wouldn't rain when it happens. But yes, without blocking, the cold is transient.

docstox12 wrote:Same thing going to happen this week.Brutal cold and a warm up for the weekend.

That's the difference between killer winters ('93-'94 and '95-'96) and this winter, sustained cold and snowpack. Not giving up yet as there is a lot more winter left.

Doc you got that right and 2003-04 winter as well!! It looks as if the latter part of Jan will be some type of blocking but only time will tell - we wasted that dam summer block - imagine if we had that blocking now - this may have ranked up there with greats  

Without any type of blocking everything or -NAO this cold is transient - in and out - just like a brothel    !!

This winters a 5 so far. Snowfalls been above average but these GLC's which seem to come within a week after our good snowfalls have been snoweaters.

It's a little discouraging but as the Doc above says lots of winter left.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This winters a 5 so far. Snowfalls been above average but these GLC's which seem to come within a week after our good snowfalls have been snoweaters.

It's a little discouraging but as the Doc above says lots of winter left.

Yea, after the snowfall we had a few days back, it sucks to look outside and see grass again. Everyone of our events have been followed by snow eating conditions. The fog this morning was rough, I still have a little snow coverage. Have you seen the midwest most of this winter? Yes, the midwest is always known to be cold, but some of the temps they have been getting for over a month now have even been too cold for them. I'm not sure about the blocking at the end of the month, I don't see anything spectacular happening, it still looks to follow a , snow/cold, followed by a warmth/rain event. There is a lot of winter left, however, it goes by fast, especially when a thaw is on the horizon and the next thing we have to look to is around the 14/15th to see if things change

Your right, Hector, about it going fast.We have a big warm up starting at the end of this week. that will take us to the middle of January.

That would leave us with 6 weeks of solid snow weather to get a big one or a couple of mid size storms to bump the totals.March is always a wild card around here.

To be honest I wont mind the warmup. My car barely started this morning and it felt like I was sitting in a freezer. I can't be outside more than 2 minutes without parts of my body going numb lol.

Still expecting this thaw to be short lived.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:To be honest I wont mind the warmup. My car barely started this morning and it felt like I was sitting in a freezer. I can't be outside more than 2 minutes without parts of my body going numb lol.

Brutal. same here.

Already both major global operational models insist on a colder than normal pattern returning by January 14th, making the "thaw" extremely shot lived. In fact, I may not even consider it a thaw. But that's besides the points. Once we get to mid-month, we have to see how active the STJ is, or else we could be looking at a lot of mainly northern stream driven events.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:To be honest I wont mind the warmup. My car barely started this morning and it felt like I was sitting in a freezer. I can't be outside more than 2 minutes without parts of my body going numb lol.

I have great clothing so it actually doesn't bother me, even got good clothing to cover the face. I got a new battery last week and was ready to go. I rather it stay one way or the other. Tired of going from layers and big jackets to fleeces and lighter clothes. I have to keep digging out fall clothing.

There has been a lot of discussion about the '93-'94 winter being a bad one.

Here is one I lived through and observed, the 1960-1961 winter.

Here is an excerpt from the NY Daily News Weather Almanac:

"The winter season of 1960-61 will long be remembered in the Northeast for the three major snowstorms and record breaking spell of sub freezing weather. Winter weather set in suddenly on Dec.11 with falling temperatures and a raging snowstorm.When the storm ended on the 12th, the Metropolitan area had its greatest early season snowstorm since records began ranging from 17.0" at the Battery to 15.2" at Central Park(LOL CP), while at Newark the depth was 20.4".Cold weather continued through the balance of December with no major snowstorms.

The first two weeks of January were quite pleasant (thaw).The first snowfall of the month was 2" on the 15th-16th, just a preview of what was to follow.On the night of the 18th the temperature fell below freezing and remained there continuously until Feb.4th, a period of 16 consecutive days of sub-feezing weather.This broke the previous record of 15 sub-freezing weather consecutively established in 1881.During this period the temperature was in the teens or lower every morning and on Feb.2nd the mercury sank to -2 degrees, the coldest in the City in 18 years.

Most New Yorkers and suburbanites would have taken this wintry weather in stride if it were not for two severe snowstorms , with intervening smaller snowfalls which occurred during this spell of cold weather.The snowstorm of Jan. 19-20 lefta 10 inch blankety over the City with up to 18 inches in neighboring Westchester.The snowstorm of Feb 3-4 was the severest of the entire winter with depths of 17.4" at Central Park ( Ha Ha CP), 22.6" at newark and 24.0" at NY International Airport at Queens.The Metropolitan area was virtually snowbound on the 4th."

I remember well the Jan.19-20 snowstorm.We were off from school and I was able to watch the Inauguration of President Kennedy, as they just had Washington DC shoveled out in time for the event.

docstox12 wrote:There has been a lot of discussion about the '93-'94 winter being a bad one.

Here is one I lived through and observed, the 1960-1961 winter.

Here is an excerpt from the NY Daily News Weather Almanac:

"The winter season of 1960-61 will long be remembered in the Northeast for the three major snowstorms and record breaking spell of sub freezing weather. Winter weather set in suddenly on Dec.11 with falling temperatures and a raging snowstorm.When the storm ended on the 12th, the Metropolitan area had its greatest early season snowstorm since records began ranging from 17.0" at the Battery to 15.2" at Central Park(LOL CP), while at Newark the depth was 20.4".Cold weather continued through the balance of December with no major snowstorms.

The first two weeks of January were quite pleasant (thaw).The first snowfall of the month was 2" on the 15th-16th, just a preview of what was to follow.On the night of the 18th the temperature fell below freezing and remained there continuously until Feb.4th, a period of 16 consecutive days of sub-feezing weather.This broke the previous record of 15 sub-freezing weather consecutively established in 1881.During this period the temperature was in the teens or lower every morning and on Feb.2nd the mercury sank to -2 degrees, the coldest in the City in 18 years.

Most New Yorkers and suburbanites would have taken this wintry weather in stride if it were not for two severe snowstorms , with intervening smaller snowfalls which occurred during this spell of cold weather.The snowstorm of Jan. 19-20 lefta 10 inch blankety over the City with up to 18 inches in neighboring Westchester.The snowstorm of Feb 3-4 was the severest of the entire winter with depths of 17.4" at Central Park ( Ha Ha CP), 22.6" at newark and 24.0" at NY International Airport at Queens.The Metropolitan area was virtually snowbound on the 4th."

I remember well the Jan.19-20 snowstorm.We were off from school and I was able to watch the Inauguration of President Kennedy, as they just had Washington DC shoveled out in time for the event.

Awesome history, thanks for the read. While I was driving to work in the city yesterday, it was amazing how icy the Hudson looked after those cold couple of days we had. Some parts have large chunks of snow on top of the ice. Could you imagine if we had a few more days like Tuesday this week? You could have skated across.

Doc:

Geez Doc I've got a ton of work to do today and now you sidetracked me with this.

This was the year I was born so I remember none of it, but thank you for pointing out the inaccurate measurements of the current zookeepers Grandad back then.

One thing on that year and stretch of time. Poughkeepsie NY in the Hudson Valley, only 65 miles due north of NYC and on the river so no elevation involved, set these record lows during consecutive days in January 1961.

January 20 -13
January 21 -30
January 22 -29
January 23 -16

One guy I know who lived around here then said people were jolted awake one of those nights when gunshots were heard in the woods. It turned out to be the sap freezing solid in some of the maple trees and exploding through the bark. Now that's cold.

docstox12 wrote:There has been a lot of discussion about the '93-'94 winter being a bad one.

Here is one I lived through and observed, the 1960-1961 winter.

Here is an excerpt from the NY Daily News Weather Almanac:

"The winter season of 1960-61 will long be remembered in the Northeast for the three major snowstorms and record breaking spell of sub freezing weather. Winter weather set in suddenly on Dec.11 with falling temperatures and a raging snowstorm.When the storm ended on the 12th, the Metropolitan area had its greatest early season snowstorm since records began ranging from 17.0" at the Battery to 15.2" at Central Park(LOL CP), while at Newark the depth was 20.4".Cold weather continued through the balance of December with no major snowstorms.

The first two weeks of January were quite pleasant (thaw).The first snowfall of the month was 2" on the 15th-16th, just a preview of what was to follow.On the night of the 18th the temperature fell below freezing and remained there continuously until Feb.4th, a period of 16 consecutive days of sub-feezing weather.This broke the previous record of 15 sub-freezing weather consecutively established in 1881.During this period the temperature was in the teens or lower every morning and on Feb.2nd the mercury sank to -2 degrees, the coldest in the City in 18 years.

Most New Yorkers and suburbanites would have taken this wintry weather in stride if it were not for two severe snowstorms , with intervening smaller snowfalls which occurred during this spell of cold weather.The snowstorm of Jan. 19-20 lefta 10 inch blankety over the City with up to 18 inches in neighboring Westchester.The snowstorm of Feb 3-4 was the severest of the entire winter with depths of 17.4" at Central Park ( Ha Ha CP), 22.6" at newark and 24.0" at NY International Airport at Queens.The Metropolitan area was virtually snowbound on the 4th."

I remember well the Jan.19-20 snowstorm.We were off from school and I was able to watch the Inauguration of President Kennedy, as they just had Washington DC shoveled out in time for the event.

- just like Bloomberg and New years Eve after the Boxer day Blizzard of 2010 while the rest of the city was crippled.

Doc, thanks fro sharing this very memorable (for you) and great piece of weather history - I love this crap!! CP that story is nuts !! I have never heard of such a natural phenomena but really interesting. 16 straight days below freezing - wow that is incredible. Could we hit that mark again?? Great stuff - do we have an archive on here where we can put this piece of history - I mean it is over 50 years old.

amugs wrote:

docstox12 wrote:There has been a lot of discussion about the '93-'94 winter being a bad one.

Here is one I lived through and observed, the 1960-1961 winter.

Here is an excerpt from the NY Daily News Weather Almanac:

"The winter season of 1960-61 will long be remembered in the Northeast for the three major snowstorms and record breaking spell of sub freezing weather. Winter weather set in suddenly on Dec.11 with falling temperatures and a raging snowstorm.When the storm ended on the 12th, the Metropolitan area had its greatest early season snowstorm since records began ranging from 17.0" at the Battery to 15.2" at Central Park(LOL CP), while at Newark the depth was 20.4".Cold weather continued through the balance of December with no major snowstorms.

The first two weeks of January were quite pleasant (thaw).The first snowfall of the month was 2" on the 15th-16th, just a preview of what was to follow.On the night of the 18th the temperature fell below freezing and remained there continuously until Feb.4th, a period of 16 consecutive days of sub-feezing weather.This broke the previous record of 15 sub-freezing weather consecutively established in 1881.During this period the temperature was in the teens or lower every morning and on Feb.2nd the mercury sank to -2 degrees, the coldest in the City in 18 years.

Most New Yorkers and suburbanites would have taken this wintry weather in stride if it were not for two severe snowstorms , with intervening smaller snowfalls which occurred during this spell of cold weather.The snowstorm of Jan. 19-20 lefta 10 inch blankety over the City with up to 18 inches in neighboring Westchester.The snowstorm of Feb 3-4 was the severest of the entire winter with depths of 17.4" at Central Park ( Ha Ha CP), 22.6" at newark and 24.0" at NY International Airport at Queens.The Metropolitan area was virtually snowbound on the 4th."

I remember well the Jan.19-20 snowstorm.We were off from school and I was able to watch the Inauguration of President Kennedy, as they just had Washington DC shoveled out in time for the event.

- just like Bloomberg and New years Eve after the Boxer day Blizzard of 2010 while the rest of the city was crippled.

Doc, thanks fro sharing this very memorable (for you)  and great piece of weather history - I love this crap!! CP that story is nuts !!  I have never heard of such a natural phenomena but really interesting.  16 straight days below freezing - wow that is incredible.  Could we hit that mark again??  Great stuff - do we have an archive on here where we can put this piece of history - I mean it is over 50 years old.

We do now Mugs.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Doc:

Geez Doc I've got a ton of work to do today and now you sidetracked me with this.

This was the year I was born so I remember none of it, but thank you for pointing out the inaccurate measurements of the current zookeepers Grandad back then.

One thing on that year and stretch of time.  Poughkeepsie NY in the Hudson Valley, only 65 miles due north of NYC and on the river so no elevation involved, set these record lows during consecutive days in January 1961.

January 20  -13
January 21  -30
January 22  -29
January 23  -16

One guy I know who lived around here then said people were jolted awake one of those nights when gunshots were heard in the woods.  It turned out to be the sap freezing solid in some of the maple trees and exploding through the bark.  Now that's cold.

LOL, CP, I knew that eagle eye of yours would spot that Central park 1960-61 data.Even then that dopey zookeeper screwed it up!

Great data on the Poukeepsie lows during that stretch.Now THATS sustained cold.Wonder if that maple tree sap ever did that in subsequent years.

amugs wrote:

docstox12 wrote:There has been a lot of discussion about the '93-'94 winter being a bad one.

Here is one I lived through and observed, the 1960-1961 winter.

Here is an excerpt from the NY Daily News Weather Almanac:

"The winter season of 1960-61 will long be remembered in the Northeast for the three major snowstorms and record breaking spell of sub freezing weather. Winter weather set in suddenly on Dec.11 with falling temperatures and a raging snowstorm.When the storm ended on the 12th, the Metropolitan area had its greatest early season snowstorm since records began ranging from 17.0" at the Battery to 15.2" at Central Park(LOL CP), while at Newark the depth was 20.4".Cold weather continued through the balance of December with no major snowstorms.

The first two weeks of January were quite pleasant (thaw).The first snowfall of the month was 2" on the 15th-16th, just a preview of what was to follow.On the night of the 18th the temperature fell below freezing and remained there continuously until Feb.4th, a period of 16 consecutive days of sub-feezing weather.This broke the previous record of 15 sub-freezing weather consecutively established in 1881.During this period the temperature was in the teens or lower every morning and on Feb.2nd the mercury sank to -2 degrees, the coldest in the City in 18 years.

Most New Yorkers and suburbanites would have taken this wintry weather in stride if it were not for two severe snowstorms , with intervening smaller snowfalls which occurred during this spell of cold weather.The snowstorm of Jan. 19-20 lefta 10 inch blankety over the City with up to 18 inches in neighboring Westchester.The snowstorm of Feb 3-4 was the severest of the entire winter with depths of 17.4" at Central Park ( Ha Ha CP), 22.6" at newark and 24.0" at NY International Airport at Queens.The Metropolitan area was virtually snowbound on the 4th."

I remember well the Jan.19-20 snowstorm.We were off from school and I was able to watch the Inauguration of President Kennedy, as they just had Washington DC shoveled out in time for the event.

- just like Bloomberg and New years Eve after the Boxer day Blizzard of 2010 while the rest of the city was crippled.

Doc, thanks fro sharing this very memorable (for you)  and great piece of weather history - I love this crap!! CP that story is nuts !!  I have never heard of such a natural phenomena but really interesting.  16 straight days below freezing - wow that is incredible.  Could we hit that mark again??  Great stuff - do we have an archive on here where we can put this piece of history - I mean it is over 50 years old.

Don't worry, Mugsy, if there isn't an archive here there is one in my brain from those early years.I've got those old weather almanacs plus old Bergen Record newspapers from the early and mid 60's when a blizzard hit.Maybe someday you, me and Dunz can go over them , with a few beers of course,LOL!

I've never seen 16 straight days below freezing since then.It's like DiMaggio's hit streak.Don't think I'll live to see it again around here.Maybe up CP's way.

HectorO wrote:

docstox12 wrote:There has been a lot of discussion about the '93-'94 winter being a bad one.

Here is one I lived through and observed, the 1960-1961 winter.

Here is an excerpt from the NY Daily News Weather Almanac:

"The winter season of 1960-61 will long be remembered in the Northeast for the three major snowstorms and record breaking spell of sub freezing weather. Winter weather set in suddenly on Dec.11 with falling temperatures and a raging snowstorm.When the storm ended on the 12th, the Metropolitan area had its greatest early season snowstorm since records began ranging from 17.0" at the Battery to 15.2" at Central Park(LOL CP), while at Newark the depth was 20.4".Cold weather continued through the balance of December with no major snowstorms.

The first two weeks of January were quite pleasant (thaw).The first snowfall of the month was 2" on the 15th-16th, just a preview of what was to follow.On the night of the 18th the temperature fell below freezing and remained there continuously until Feb.4th, a period of 16 consecutive days of sub-feezing weather.This broke the previous record of 15 sub-freezing weather consecutively established in 1881.During this period the temperature was in the teens or lower every morning and on Feb.2nd the mercury sank to -2 degrees, the coldest in the City in 18 years.

Most New Yorkers and suburbanites would have taken this wintry weather in stride if it were not for two severe snowstorms , with intervening smaller snowfalls which occurred during this spell of cold weather.The snowstorm of Jan. 19-20 lefta 10 inch blankety over the City with up to 18 inches in neighboring Westchester.The snowstorm of Feb 3-4 was the severest of the entire winter with depths of 17.4" at Central Park ( Ha Ha CP), 22.6" at newark and 24.0" at NY International Airport at Queens.The Metropolitan area was virtually snowbound on the 4th."

I remember well the Jan.19-20 snowstorm.We were off from school and I was able to watch the Inauguration of President Kennedy, as they just had Washington DC shoveled out in time for the event.

Awesome history, thanks for the read. While I was driving to work in the city yesterday, it was amazing how icy  the Hudson looked after those cold couple of days we had. Some parts have large chunks of snow on top of the ice. Could you imagine if we had a few more days like Tuesday this week? You could have skated across.

Noticed that icy Hudson yesterday while I was attending to my Mom's needs.Yep, you're right, another solid week of that cold and the river really would have iced up.It's a real winter sight for sure.

[quote="docstox12"][quote="amugs"]

docstox12 wrote:

Don't worry, Mugsy, if there isn't an archive here there is one in my brain from those early years.I've got those old weather almanacs plus old Bergen Record newspapers from the early and mid 60's when a blizzard hit.Maybe someday you, me and Dunz can go over them , with a few beers of course,LOL!

.

lol doc, pick a date!