January 11th Rainstorm Observations

This rainstorm is beginning to turn into an interesting event for the area since winds could become an issue and an actual "squall" line could develop

12z RGEM total precip:



Squall line:



12z NAM radar reflectivity





The heaviest rain will come between 4 and 9pm tomorrow night. I think areas will exceed 2 inches of rainfall depending on where the heaviest cells within the squall line set up.

Winds will be between 20-30 mph with gusts greater than 40 mph (50 mph immediate coast and LI).

I could see wind gusts getting as high as 60mph along the immediate coast.

Flooding will be an issue especially for areas in northern NJ in the flood prone zones.

Post observations here.

Ohh sounds like fun in coast CT 60mph possible, will I be expecting the same amount of rain there, The HWO and discussions are basically the same and covered by Upton both here (Yonkers) and there. A squall line do you mean t-storm line or one without thunderstorm charecteristics. I know this is a observation post but was just curious.

Looking at the above maps CT looks to get hard hit too but I am not exactly sure what I am looking at. Reflectivity what is that? I tried to look it up but the net doesn't explain it in laymens if possible lol.

jmanley32 wrote:Ohh sounds like fun in coast CT 60mph possible, will I be expecting the same amount of rain there, The HWO and discussions are basically the same and covered by Upton both here (Yonkers) and there.  A squall line do you mean t-storm line or one without thunderstorm charecteristics.  I know this is a observation post but was just curious.

There could be thunder associated with this. A squall line has intense winds though with torrential rains. That's why in the scroll on top of the forum, I am saying tomorrow afternoon into the early evening will be the worst since that is when the line is expected to come through.

Will it hold together into CT? I am going to be near New Haven leaving early tomorrow. but a bit further east. SO I imagine the winds will be pretty strong there, as I have seen on some wind map simulations.

I am very surprised this does not include southern westchester, and the rest of southern, CT. I expect it will be added later and with the possibility of winds to 60mph I think it is possible this will be turned to watches or warnings tomorrow as we get a better handle on how its going to pan out.

Wind Advisory in effect from noon to 9 PM EST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from noon to 9 PM EST Saturday.

* Locations... New York City... Long Island... southern Middlesex
County and southern New London County.

* Hazards... strong winds.

* Winds... south 15 to 25 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph.

* Timing... gusts over 45 mph will be possible during the entire
advisory period... but more likely to occur late Saturday
afternoon into early evening.

* Impacts... difficult driving conditions in strong winds.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph... are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.

Frank can you post the WB wind forecasts? And the newest RGEM like above? As each model comes out?

00z NAM 

Total qpf NAM 

Wind

I am assuming those winds are the sustained? I'll be in the 25-30 swatch area. Are there any gust maps? Seems a lot of attention is focused over CT near where I will be.

Thx for posting the maps, do you think the qpf is low? I have seen higher amounts in other places. DO you expect that wind advisories or warnings will be issued for coastal CT and maybe southern WC?

jmanley32 wrote:Thx for posting the maps, do you think the qpf is low?  I have seen higher amounts in other places.  DO you expect that wind advisories or warnings will be issued for coastal CT and maybe southern WC?

10M = surface winds. 

I've told you many times (and it's in the scroll on top of the forum too) that I think gusts could be over 40 mph with primarily 1-2 inches of rain, but 2+ if you're caught in a strong cell.

Current radar shows a healthy cold front to our west with plenty of precip embedded into it. Heaviest won't arrive until tomorrow afternoon 

Okay sorry didn't mean to re ask am very tired, yes I read the scroll and will trust your stuff, your very good. Thanks

This would have been one heck of a snowstorm again folks!!!

Yeah it would have, def get windy out here in Yonkers heading out to coastal CT, gonna be real gusty there. Downpours starting I hate rain, but wind is cool.

55* and calm right now - .39" in the bucket so far - wow last night was icy in spots over here - almost took a header coming out of a restaurant. Hovered around freezing and 33* from about 6PM until 11PM.

BLAHHHHH looks like March out there today - waiting for this pattern to reload as the maps/models are showing and get back to some good ol' fashion winter cold and snow!!

Pretty impressive.....thunder and lightning with heavy rain....Kings Park, Ny

Beyond crazy fog all the way from NY to Guilford, CT. Waiting on that squall line to come through looks like it is indeed forming.

looks like March Mugs, but feels Like middle of April, its 56 degrees here, ridiculous.

Squall line deflated in northern NJ, the black hole strikes again mugs!   

Dunnzoo wrote:Squall line deflated in northern NJ, the black hole strikes again mugs!    

I know - but the fog is crazy - driving from Allendale to Hillsdale took me 1/2 hour for a 15 minute drive!!

Fog is nuts right now

I had 1.81 in. of rain yesterday. All the snow got washed away except for the piles that the plows left behind.    Even my wife said it looks so blah without the snow when our we going to get more, and she's not even a snow fanatic like the people on this board. I'm hoping what you guys are saying about our chances for cold and stormy weather gets here sooner than later, I'm really looking forward to it and I even think she is too. WOW ! Now that's really something. Thanks to all of you guys, you really make Winter very interesting and exciting. You make this snow weenie feel like a kid again waiting for the BIG SNOW to get a day off from school, except now it's work instead. Thanks again !