2/2 to 2/3 Light Snow Event/Observations Thread

[Frank_Wx]

The NAM has about 1-3 inches for the area. 12z GFS was close to a big storm. Keep an eye on this one...

[sroc4]

Oh stop it 12z GFS. Why you be playin with me like that?

[amugs]

Seems to be the winter of 1-3" storms with close calls - I hope we fianlly get one-big storm that is and it happens on a work day so we can get off from school

[Math23x7]

Seems to be teh winter of 1-3" storms with close calls - I hope we fianlly get one-big storm that is and it happens on a work day so we can get off from school

Be careful of what you wish for Amugs. Recall that most schools were closed for at least a week as a result of Hurricane Sandy, extending their school year. The last thing they need now is snow days at this point. I would much rather have it on a weekend.

[amugs]

Math - almost all schools in NJ have done what we did by extending our school year to June 27th due to Sandy and rebuilt in 3 snow/emergency days. So if we get a day here or there we have them to use once again. I have been a teache for 20+ years and the only other time we had this situation was in 1993-94 and 1995-96 but both of those years were due to snow closings. We shall see........

[Snow88]

12z ARW has .25+ for the NYC area

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_12z/rsmloop.html

[Frank_Wx]

Latest NAM qpf is nice for NYC Metro. Looks like a norlun trough will set up for this system

[amugs]

Frank, from the maps would you say we are looking at about 2-4" in NNJ ? Want to get an idea since I am heading ver to freinds house in Westchester Co.,NY to watch the game Sunday?
ALso, thoughts on Tuesday storm - or is going to be a 1-3" event like we have basicall had this whole winter. The winter of almost.....

[Snow88]

Euro has very little precip now. It lost the norlun signature that it showed in the past runs. This threat is starting to go downhill like the other threats this winter

[sroc4]

Latest NWS Upton discussion on Sunday snow..interesting.

SO...MAINLY LOOKING AT A LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR THE REGION SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW TRACK AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ARE
POINTING TO AN ALL SNOW EVENT. INITIALLY WEAK OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE
BROAD WEAK LOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING SHOULD GENERATE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION (UP TO AN INCH OR SO)...WITH MANY TIMES
FAR SE AREAS SEEING THE MOST ACTIVITY AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THEN CONVERGENCE OF PERIPHERAL MOISTURE WRAPPING
IN ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF LOW...AHEAD OF/ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...INTERACTING WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL PRESENT THE THREAT FOR SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDING SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. INHERENT UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN PLACEMENT OF THESE TYPE OF MESOSCALE AND INSTABILITY DRIVEN
FEATURES. DEPENDING ON WHERE ALL THIS COME TOGETHER THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOW...OR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING UP TO 2 TO 4 ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW. THIS VARIANCE IS ILLUSTRATED BY THE SPREAD IN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF/SNOW. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN
A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL...WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE ZONES WITH LIKELY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

Lee Goldberg just semi agreed with this saying a general coating to 2" with a few isolated spots a bit higher. I personally have been scorned by the boy who cried snow in the past so will be happy with an inch and greatful for more.

[Frank_Wx]

Models backed off significantly on this storm. Its just that type of winter...expect snow showers. Coating to an inch possible.

[sroc4]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

[Frank_Wx]

SNOW MAP



I am going a little bullish here. I like how the primary vort is digging into the trough. There will be an inverted trough setting up somewhere and I feel areas will see isolated 2+ inch amounts around our area. We will see what happens. I have a gut feeling on this one. Current radar looks nice as well.

[sroc4]

I can agree with this Frank. A surprise inch or two would be nice.

[Snow88]

18z RGEM has the norlun trough right over NYC. Really nice for the NYC area.

[Frank_Wx]

Light snow beginning to break out in west NJ

[Frank_Wx]

Flurries!!!!!

[amugs]

Light snow up here in NNJ - Hillsdale, Bergen County. A nice 2 or possibly 3" would be good. Ground is coated.

Is there any word on the 5/6th storm or is it off the maps/ots? Just checking.

[Frank_Wx]

Light snow up here in NNJ - Hillsdale, Bergen County. A nice 2 or possibly 3" would be good. Ground is coated.

Is there any word on the 5/6th storm or is it off the maps/ots? Just checking.

I think southern NJ does better than us. Coating to an inch looks good.

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