Winter Outlook

How are you Jman ? I know it's been while since you guys heard from be, but now that I'm back to work after my shoulder surgery I just don't have a lot of time to post. The thing that worrys me the most is all I keep hearing is that we're going to have a cold and snowy winter. Could this be the KISS OF Death for our winter season? Frank, I and several of my co-workers are anxiously awaiting your winter outlook due out on the 17th of November. Until then I'll be rubbing my lucky rabbits foot and keeping my fingers crossed and saying a few prayers that we will have a cold and extremely snowy winter. I'll talk to you guys soon. Cp I was glad to see your post in the OTI thread. It's good to here from you. See you guys soon.

I don't know how this winter will turn out many rumors of this and that. Some people think just because of it not such a hot summer that winter will be brutal but I also feel summer not to hot winter might be. A couple things to note in my area acorns been falling for weeks now I know it doesn't mean much of anything. I seen a lot of squirrels around and rabbits lol.

I've noticed a few of nature's signs especially abundance of spiders and spider webs but also the acorns falling from trees and some pretty puffy squirrel tail lol btw awesome blog mako lmao

Almost walked into a massive spider web last night when taking my dog for a walk. The web was easily 16" in diameter and he was a big one - body as big as a nickel. He got pissed off at me and ran to the edge of the web and shook the frickin' thing - I then went inside and changed my depends!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIj0y2oywO0


Mugsy is the "science teacher" in this clip.

docstox12 wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIj0y2oywO0


Mugsy is the "science teacher" in this clip.

Thanks Doc - haven't seen that movie since the Monster Theater on Channel 9 on Saturday's in the mid 1970's!

Let's spice it up here with an interesting read - very scientific and someone well respected in the scientist community Dr. Landscheidt.

There is another lad whom my friend has told me about called the curious observer who looks at the celestial happenings - makes goo correlations with the low level of solar activity and the ebb and flow of the La Nina's and El Nino's as well as the ice ages.

This is from the USAwx board but I thought it was great to share with mi familia here as well.

http://www.schulphysik.de/klima/landscheidt/iceage.htm

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753

Accuweather thinking west and north of I 95 gets more snow while I 95 and east gets more slop.

That seems to be their forecast every year. ...

Im not buying into anything so many different predictions flying around

Frank_Wx wrote:That seems to be their forecast every year. ...

Right.After all, a stopped clock is right twice a day.

docstox12 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:That seems to be their forecast every year. ...

Right.After all, a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Doc posted that as well in the long range - should have put it here - we wait to see the indicator in November - tooooo many players on the board/table and a lot of information needs to be digested to come up with a forecast especially for the winter - we wait in anticipation like the good ol' heinz 57 commercial from the 70's.

I am going to hear Jim Witt's forecast and buy his calendar again in November and see what he has to say - he was good with his forecast last year in my opinion called a good number of storms as well.

Those who make a call to early usually bust like 'In'accuweather"

the cpc new seasonal forecast is out. they say slightly above ave temps for us and a equal chance for above and below precip this winter. very preictable for them. they say we should have a weak el-nino and a +pdo. however two good signs from their forecast are above normal temps in the pac n/w and well above ave precip in the gulf, the s/w US and the s/e. so if that leads to a +pna with the gulf open for business we should have a shot at seeing some good storms this winter.

here are the links...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

how does the pdo affect our area? I think it leads to warm temps in Alaska and pac n/w. does it work in tandem with the epo?

algae888 wrote:how does the pdo affect our area? I think it leads to warm temps in Alaska and pac n/w. does it work in tandem with the epo?

No. Last year the PDO was negative but so was the EPO. Do not forget, a -epo actually results in positive heights not negative ones. A +PDO is indicative of above normal SSTs off the west coast, which creates a positive feedback for a +PNA.

Steve D's winter outlook

http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Winter-Forecast-for-201415.pdf

Man, it is 73 pages long. That is OD

His forecast is for cold and snowy.

TWCs Outlook

http://www.weather.com/news/winter-forecast-outlook-theweatherchannel-20141015?cm_ven=FB_WX_JB_101714_4

Not very detailed

Frank_Wx wrote:Man, it is 73 pages long. That is OD

His forecast is for cold and snowy.

Just read that too, saw it on FB. It is long, but it is clear for those who are still learning about all the factors you need to take into consideration. From what I have been seeing, it does look like it will be cold and wet, not seeing anyone formally say "snowy", although if it is going to be cold, you will probably get snow!

That is the big question, Dunz, where the rain/snow line sets up.Or the big snowstorms may go S and E as in recent years.

Steve D - Synopsis of most important factors IMO: - Cliff Notes if you will everyone - SNOW WEENIE"S REJOICE - now it just needs to hHappen
I am expecting a very weak, west based El Nino to
eventually take hold. I want to be clear in stating that El Nino will NOT
be a primary driving factor to the winter weather pattern. Instead, this
year El Nino will act as an enhancer to the pattern overall, specifically
showing influences in the Sub Tropical jet stream over the southern tier
of the United States and up the East coast.

The trends are clear and the factors that
support these observations clearly point to a west based weak El Nino
influencing the winter weather pattern.

The MJO will likely see a lot of time in a weak phase 7, 8, and 1 states
from November through March. These phases typically support an
active Sub Tropical jet stream and below normal temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the United States

support for sustained high latitude blocking in the Northern Atlantic
Ocean. This type of configuration leads to what is called a negative
North Atlantic Oscillation.

This year, the western Atlantic is running 1.7 degrees Celsius above
normal. What we have off the East coast is a powder keg of
energy with warm, moist rising air along and just off the East coast.


This means that cold, dense air (you know, like that Polar and Arctic air mass in northwestern Canada)
will race south and southeast to achieve a balance in the atmosphere.
This leads to the potential for powerful storms along the East coast.
we clearly have a very
favorable environment for significant East coast storms or cyclogenesis.
In short, Nor’easters.

So the Sun is about to go into an increasingly more quiet period of solar
activity over the next several months and years. Now that we have past
the peak of the cycle, the potential for a warmer stratosphere on average
will start to increase significantly.

When the QBO is positive, the Polar Vortex in the
stratosphere is stronger.

As of September, the QBO at 30 MB has fallen
to -23.24, which is rather strong. This strong easterly QBO strongly
favors a weak Polar Vortex that will likely feature a Polar Vortex that
will break up and drop south towards the mid latitudes this winter.
Currently, the QBO has been steadily strengthening and will continue to
lead to an environment where high latitude blocking is far more likely
than not

The more snow
we have develop, the stronger the Polar and Arctic air masses can get.

In fact, at the rate
snow is building in Siberia, we are going to blow away levels seen in
2009/10 and 2011/12 when the Arctic Oscillation was strongly negative.

Overall, I expect the PNA to be in a positive phase
for the most part

As a result, I expect most Arctic and Polar air masses to dive
towards the Northern Plains and then south towards the Gulf Coast and
southeast towards the East coast this winter.


A strongly negative NAO leads to a suppressed storm track over the Southeast leading to rare winter storms over the Southeast states like
Georgia and South Carolina.
This year I do expect a predominantly negative NAO for several
reasons.
BUT................
So when considering these factors I do expect a weak to moderate
negative NAO this winter that would feature an increased potential for
winter storms along the East coast this year.

REGION EIGHT (EAST COAST): This region will be a high impact area with a
significant threat from a variety of winter storms, but especially
Nor’Easters. These locations will have the potential to feature above
normal winter precipitation.
December: Temperatures: Near normal Precipitation: Above Normal
January: Temperatures: Below Normal Precipitation: Above Normal
February: Temperatures: Below Normal Precipitation: Above Normal
National Forecast

Okay, I hope you all enjoy the cliff notes above - anything you find important from his reading/prediction feel free to add or correct but wow what a report - extremely interesting and exciting. My eyes are bugging out of my head from all that skim reading - you get good at it after 23 years of teaching!!

Frank_Wx wrote:Steve D's winter outlook

http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Winter-Forecast-for-201415.pdf

Right or wrong Steve D certainly back up his LR forecasts incredibly well. That was a great read. Obviously we are gaining more and more understanding of these individual drivers and enhancers to our weather patterns. The key is understanding how they interact with each other from year to year and understanding how and why the main drivers and enhancers can change. Good stuff.

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Steve D's winter outlook

http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Winter-Forecast-for-201415.pdf

Right or wrong Steve D certainly back up his LR forecasts incredibly well. That was a great read. Obviously as awhile we are gaining more and more understanding of these individual drivers and enhancers to our weather patterns. The key is understanding how they interact with each other from year to year and understanding how and why the main drivers and enhancers can change. Good stuff.

Ditto that - learned so much more after reading his prediction - a great learning experience and very intelligent and informative information that is easy to read and follow - nothing that is crazy technical jargon - he does an excellent job of explaining everything and i mean EVERYTHING!!

I've only read up to his ENSO forecast and I'm already frustrated. He talks about how there is no way El Nino becomes moderate and will remain weak all winter. Then he compares two sea surface anomaly maps from September and October and says "look how the west Pacific has cooled". Well, no crap. When you have 2-4 major typhoons swing through the west PAC its going to cause upwelling and the SSts are going to need time to respond.

I'm not saying Nino will be stronger than weak, but his depiction of the SSTs in the PAC is misty

Continuing on...now I'm at where he speaks about the Atlantic SSTs...he says a -AMO (below normal SSTs south of Greenland) leads to blocking (-NAO). I never recall reading that and he doesn't really prove it or show analogs to support it. Strange to me that cold water gives off a feedback for positive heights in the atmosphere.

Again, he is smart and has good explanations but some of this is questionable. Lots of words. Little examples.