Coastal Storm 9/25/14

It seems most of the models are slowing that HP down allowing for more rain, but I'll be waiting to see the 12z runs as well....

12z nam showing .5 to 1" for most areas except for the eastern half of Long Island where it shows more than 1 inch. I expect other models to come down with rainfall amounts and I agree with you Frank less than an inch of rain from this system. closer to a Half inch. actually northern half of New Jersey and hudson valley May see less than a half inch.

Buoy info off the Chesapeake Bay Bridge - winds gusts at 40mph

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=CBBV2

Waves 5.25' with a 4 second period

HRRR

The HP to the North at 1034 is pretty strong and this is what we saw this past winter in late Feb and March - what will happen is for nowcasting - it was to slow and weaken as of last night - the weak LP has a lot of warm Atlantic water to help enhance the qpf but will the dry air subside for us Northern areas? Models are up and down now cutting back the amounts from the 1.5"+ but either way I will take a good .5" to 1" rain and needles to say this is an interesting system/set up.

Gotta love the weather! (I hope I am saying this come Jan/Feb !!)

Here is the current wind analysis at 500MB  Notice the center of the broad ULL is currently over Western NC/SC.  On the wind analysis notice the NW quadrant is already being influenced by the trough N of Tx.  It appears that it is trying to open up on the NW side of the ULL.  Also     Notice how strong trough is off the west coast.  This is pumping the sh-- out of the ridge in the west.  
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-89.78,37.56,2048

Notice the surface wind analysis there is currently two weak areas of LP developed.  One just off the NC coast, and a second just off the N panhandle of Fla.  
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.94,40.36,2048
Current mesoscale analysis does not indicate the two LP's off the SE Coast are closed
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19#

Wow cmc drops all precip all together. Being the opposite of bullish is not like cmc. I agree it's now cast.

No more model-hugging!

From NWS as of 2:53

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC---WESTERN TO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE REGIONS. THE RECENT
MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES WITH THIS NORTHWARD PUSHING REGION OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAVE DECREASED IN THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO LIE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION--WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS LIKELY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS TO REMAIN ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND---ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR INLAND SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS SPREAD. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS REMAINING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
DELMARVA---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NJ COAST INTO LONG ISLAND/FAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH FFG VALUES RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND---DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL
BE WIDESPREAD RUNOFF ISSUES. STILL---THERE IS POTENTIAL ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FOR ISOLATED 3"+ AMOUNTS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME RUNOFF ISSUES FROM COASTAL NJ INTO WESTERN TO
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.

UPDATED TIME SCHEDULE OF THE STORM:

Start: 5-7 am Thursday

Heaviest Precip: 6-8 am Thursday

End: 3-4 pm Thursday

Total Rainfall Expected: .50-1.25 inches, with common amounts between .50-.75

Dunnzoo wrote:From NWS as of 2:53

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC---WESTERN TO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  THE RECENT
MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES WITH THIS NORTHWARD PUSHING REGION OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAVE DECREASED IN THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD.  HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO LIE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION--WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS LIKELY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS TO REMAIN ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND---ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR INLAND SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS SPREAD.  WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS REMAINING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
DELMARVA---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NJ COAST INTO LONG ISLAND/FAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WITH FFG VALUES RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND---DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL
BE WIDESPREAD RUNOFF ISSUES.  STILL---THERE IS POTENTIAL ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FOR ISOLATED 3"+ AMOUNTS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME RUNOFF ISSUES FROM COASTAL NJ INTO WESTERN TO
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.

Oh, brother, there goes the south and east trend again.If this was winter, south Jersey, Jersey Shore, LI, SE Conn and RI would be getting a foot while I would get 4 inches in the HV,LOL!

Frank_Wx wrote:UPDATED TIME SCHEDULE OF THE STORM:

Start: 5-7 am Thursday

Heaviest Precip: 6-8 am Thursday

End: 3-4 pm Thursday

Total Rainfall Expected: .50-1.25 inches, with common amounts between .50-.75

Werd!

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:UPDATED TIME SCHEDULE OF THE STORM:

Start: 5-7 am Thursday

Heaviest Precip: 6-8 am Thursday

End: 3-4 pm Thursday

Total Rainfall Expected: .50-1.25 inches, with common amounts between .50-.75

Werd!

Scott, you sound like Wax! "Werd"

you have to love the models esp. nam. after most forecasters have lowered rainfall amounts to an inch or less the 6z nam comes in with 1.5 to 5" of rain for most of our area. looking at radar back end of precip is already in Delaware and precip field looks to be weakening. looks like we will get a quick shot of rain. over by afternoon so yankee game should be safe. I am a met fan and I really hope the game will be played. jeter is a class act wish only the best for him.

Dunnzoo wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:UPDATED TIME SCHEDULE OF THE STORM:

Start: 5-7 am Thursday

Heaviest Precip: 6-8 am Thursday

End: 3-4 pm Thursday

Total Rainfall Expected: .50-1.25 inches, with common amounts between .50-.75

Werd!

Scott, you sound like Wax! "Werd"

Say WHAT!! lol.

You can see the rain bands are struggling to move north and that is because there is a lot of confluence in our area. I'm still expecting the rain to end by early to mid afternoon, and for Derek Jeter to play his final game 

Totals keep dropping.Now only 1/4 to 1/2 inch.Bad news for the dry areas here but I'm glad for Derek Jeter for tonight.Hope he blasts one out of the ballpark!

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=OKX-N0Q-1-96

You can see in the 96 hr loop the evolution of the moisture. Notice the heavier precip is beginning to thin out. Frank how do you get that loop to post on the page. It keeps telling me that the link is not supported. Are you using an external software to convert the loop to something that is able to to upload?

Wow! Nws Slashed rain totals. most areas now getting under a half an inch. models had a tough time with this system spitting out very high numbers. upper air Pattern did not support heavy rain fall with this system.

The 13Z HRRR shows a retrograde of the rain into NYC later on this afternoon. What are your thoughts on that?

http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/2014092513/nyc/hrrr_ref_nyc_loop.php

sroc4 wrote:http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=OKX-N0Q-1-96

You can see in the 96 hr loop the evolution of the moisture.  Notice the heavier precip is beginning to thin out.  Frank how do you get that loop to post on the page.  It keeps telling me that the link is not supported.  Are you using an external software to convert the loop to something that is able to to upload?  

No I just use my ipad. But if you want something to loop within the forum, it has to be a ".gif" URL. But you still copy and paste that URL in the IMG icon, two left of the Youtube icon.

Rain is starting to break up a bit. This will continue to weaken as the day goes on.

Math23x7 wrote:The 13Z HRRR shows a retrograde of the rain into NYC later on this afternoon.  What are your thoughts on that?

http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/2014092513/nyc/hrrr_ref_nyc_loop.php

Not sure I buy into that Mike. There is not really a mechanism currently in the atmosphere capable of enhancing rainfall like that. This thing should slowly start dying. Such a cruel death.

Whenever the media starts to hype a storm "Nor'easter, Nor'easter"! it's the kiss of death. (Not that I would wish 2-3" of flooding rain on anyone!) They have overhyped so many events that turn out to be minimal. Getting decent rain here but nothing to write home about...no wind today, it was pretty breezy yesterday though.

Zoo, I couldn't agree with you more. Just like last winter when they hype A storm BOOM ! KOD. When they didn't POW ! We'd get a decent size snowfall. All I can say is thankfully we have good forecasters on this board that are darn good.

Yeah this storm wasnt bad at all here along coast rough seas thats about it rain was not an issue

skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah this storm wasnt bad at all here along coast rough seas thats about it rain was not an issue

,15" in the bucket - steadier rain as I write - 57* raw - models had a heck of a time with this - Frank, Scott,Al, Zoo good job - HP to the North sheared this out for us up here. I;ll take it and go from here

Skins - Toms River showing 1" as of 11AM? 9' seas reported as well.

mugs, the NENJ precip black hole continues to haunt us!