Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[Frank_Wx]

In regards to the possible storm on the 18th: The 12z EURO and GFS models showed drastic differences in how they handle key features at H5. Lets take a look.

12z EURO



The EURO does a great job in digging the northern (#1) and southern (#2) stream energies resulting in a phase over the Mid-Atlantic. The trough goes from neutrally tilted to negative enabling cold air to get pulled down to the coast. Granted, the coast starts warm this run because H5 closes off over eastern PA, but cold air is quickly crashing east and some areas change from a heavy rain to snow. Where H5 closes off will determine the temperatures for this possible storm.

You notice the western ridge (#3) is not exactly oriented favorably. A potent piece of s/w energy is crashing into the Pac. NW which will collapse the ridge and turn the upper air flow to a zonal state. On the next image you'll see what I mean.



Taking a look at the EURO height anomaly map you notice the ridge collapses but there is a pretty nice storm along the coast because of how the phase came together downstream. Timing is going to play a large role in how this storm shapes out because the overall flow remains progressive. The blocking is not yet established and the PV is re-developing over Arctic. The large trough (#1) about to settle over the Aleutians is going to set the tone for a pattern change around the 22nd or so, which may also feature another storm threat. At that time, I feel like the blocking will be better established and there will be more cold air to work with, too.

12z GFS



The GFS actually takes the northern stream (#1) east into Canada while the more potent piece of energy (#2) digs into the eastern CONUS. I also marked the energy coming ashore in the Pac. NW and you'll notice the GFS is really amp'd with it. Thus, the western ridge collapses much quicker compared to the EURO so the flow turns zonal in a not-so ideal time.



H5 closes off well to our north and west over Upstate NY but the storm is located off our coast due to the quicker breakdown of the western ridge, turning the upper air flow zonal. While the EURO deepens the storm near 985mb, the GFS struggles to get sub 1000mb due to the sloppy look at H5.

Conclusion

Personally, this is not a set-up screaming "big" storm to me but there remains the possibility that a weak storm impacts our area bringing rain or snow. I do not feel the overall pattern supports a potent storm the EURO is showing. A collapsing ridge out west, a poorly established block transient in nature, and a split PV is not a recipe for a big storm. Again, precip type will come down to the timing of the phase and where it takes place. It would not shock me if the storm does not materialize and the energy escapes out to sea. But we'll see.

That said, I touched on in the EURO section of this write-up that I like where the pattern is headed post Jan. 21st or so. This has been the time frame I and many others have liked for awhile now once we realized the effects the Stratosphere will bring to our Troposphere, as well as, seeing the tropical forcing propagate eastward toward and east of the Dateline. In my mind, the period to watch remains the 22nd-26th with even more chances after that.

[rb924119]

Something else to note in addition to what's already been said is that these systems that develop along cold fronts, strong fronts especially, typically have an incredibly sharp QPF cutoff due to the very strong subsidence caused by the thermally direct ageostrophic circulation at upper-levels (jet dynamics). Where that front is when this passes by will determine who sees precipitation and who doesn't. To me, I think this is going to be wet for those that do see any precip at all, because once the front moves through (temperatures begin to crash) the precip will end. Just my two cents. Also, the placement of the jet is not likely to be in a favorable location for large-scale ascent and precipitation. It's almost directly overhead (in coordination with the front, as is to be expected) instead of a couple hundred miles to our west, where we'd be in the right-entrance region.

[jmanley32]

In Franks words madonne!

[jmanley32]

Boom! Now if we can only have this a little closer, this would be a HECS, to bad its nearly 10 days out and fantasy at this time.

[jmanley32]

Jesus 955mb into Nova, if the new GFS is any good someone is in trouble with this ting, if it fails miserably then we have or same old GFS.



This is a huge change from the 18z, which was squashed to the south. This period is peeking my interest, also in the hopes that the new GFS is top notch. If Euro agrees we def have a 8-10 day nail biter.

[Math23x7]

The 1/15 0Z EURO OP shows the 1/23 low going well inland towards the great Lakes. Big snowstorm for the midwest, a massive rain storm here.

This is what CP said around mid-December:

I've noticed through the years that long range east coast storms come and go on the models but these damn GLC's like the one shown for Christmas Eve will be there for the next 8 days and will happen just like predicted. Why can't it happen that way in reverse.

Well CP, given how this winter has been, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the potential storm for next week endures the same fate. Think of the Great Lakes as a black hole. Once a low is shown going through them it cannot escape.

[algae888]

while the euro went from ots to a glc the cmc went the other direction....




so tonight runs for 1/23 euro=glc cmc=BM gfs=south of BM. the good news all three have an intense storm now for several runs. fun times ahead.

[algae888]

weenie run by the cmc...

[algae888]

as far as the sunday -mon storm. gfs has a soaker for us however most ensembles are a miss as is the cmc. euro looks like op gfs...

we do not want a strong storm this weekend imo as the next clipper that comes in for wens. will probably be sheared apart if op gfs and euro verify. the weaker the system sunday the better chance the wens clipper has at bringing us a light snowfall.

[algae888]

one thing about the euro this winter is it has amped up systems in the 7-10 time frame only to have much weaker storms as we get closer to them. could be reason why it cuts the storm on the 23rd. we shall see.

[jmanley32]

00z Euro for 19th has a 986mb rain and high wind maker (no chance of snoe with a LP to the west of NYC in PA and Euro has a huge cutter as stated with verbatim rain and high winds at or over 50mph gusts for quite a long duration, it has 984mb isos over us and they do not pull out for quite a while which would mkae for basically a tropical friggin storm in the winter (yes its a cutter I mean the conditions) unless the wind doesn't mix down then we just have to deal with several inches of rain, 06z GFS flipped back to the squashed storm on the 24th. Oh well, time will tell, if the Euro keeps with the cutter wonder what the media will hype this one as cupidbomb? (as we are closest to valentines day for a holiday lol)

[jmanley32]

I took a closer look at Euro Ens and the 19th storm although will def be a rain storm for most the tristate area except way inland some of the pressures go sub 980 which could cause some real problems with wind if convection forms (which NWS says is a possibility. I will be on coastal CT where the wind is always real bad so (much moreso than here) so am a bit concerned about the intensity of Sun/Mon storm in that area. 24th CMC is only weenie run for areas south of NYC verbatim on wxbell snow maps. A little snow north, Euro Ens have some mega weenie runs (about half of them) in the 15 day that show VERY measurable snow even to the coast so that may be the change time period as Frank and others have been saying.

[Frank_Wx]

Models are beginning to take note of the pattern change that will occur after the 21st. You're beginning to see a lot more fantasy storms show up, positive heights in the EPO and NAO regions, and consistent below normal cold. This pattern change will be our best one yet this winter. I would be very surprised if it does not deliver at least a 6 inch snowfall to the area.

The Sunday storm still needs to be watched but I stand by my initial analysis of either a weak storm bringing rain and snow, or one that goes out to sea (6z GFS showed this). Euro is way too amplified with it.

Have a good day. Maybe I'll update again around 2pm

[sroc4]

Def think the Euro Op is a bit too far west Re Sunday night-Monday.    For superstitions sake I refuse to make a new thread for this system, so Frank or whoever please feel free.  Frank although the 6z GFS has trended weaker and East again the 00z was def stronger with the pressure and west towards Euro as it passes our Lat.  Will have to see how the next 24hrs trend.  Still some work to do with this one.  Our boys and gals to the N and W in NJ and the HV should def cont to monitor.  Its going to be real hard to get snow anywhere near the coastal plain with this one though.  FWIW the CMC is the weakest and most OTS but the precip shield is trending west.

[sroc4]

NWS Albany:

SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF GUIDANCE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXISTENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NWD NEAR THE EAST COAST SUN-MON. HOWEVER CRUCIAL DETAILS
IN TRACK/STRENGTH WILL TAKE ADDED TIME TO WORK OUT SINCE THE
SOURCE ENERGY ALOFT IS STILL OVER THE ERN PAC AND NOT SCHEDULED TO
REACH THE WEST COAST UNTIL AROUND EARLY FRI. STEADILY DEEPER
TREND OF THE SFC LOW IN ECMWF MEANS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT PARTIAL WEIGHT OF OPERATIONAL SOLNS THAT ARE STRONGER
THAN THE MEANS. WITH A FAIR CLUSTER OF MODEL SOLNS AND EVENTUALLY
THE ECMWF MEAN CLOSING OFF AN UPR LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST... AS
WELL AS A WWD TREND IN THE 00Z GFS TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF.

[docstox12]

Models are beginning to take note of the pattern change that will occur after the 21st. You're beginning to see a lot more fantasy storms show up, positive heights in the EPO and NAO regions, and consistent below normal cold. This pattern change will be our best one yet this winter. I would be very surprised if it does not deliver at least a 6 inch snowfall to the area.

The Sunday storm still needs to be watched but I stand by my initial analysis of either a weak storm bringing rain and snow, or one that goes out to sea (6z GFS showed this). Euro is way too amplified with it.

Have a good day. Maybe I'll update again around 2pm

Good news and a decidedly more positive note in a frustrating winter for snow lovers.

Lot's of time available for this to play out.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It's  8 days away so we all know how that usually plays out but:

Next Friday the 23rd TWC has my area with a wintry mix changing to all snow with a high of 32.

Accuweather for the same day has a high of 37 with a wintry mix changing to rain. 1.89 inches of rain that day.

Two completely different schools of thought and I'm sure they will flip flop several times before then. I'm sure a lot of the confusion has to do with the pattern change Frank, Sroc and several others have been talking about which MAY happen next week.

At least it's something to watch.

[Frank_Wx]

It's  8 days away so we all know how that usually plays out but:

Next Friday the 23rd TWC has my area with a wintry mix changing to all snow with a high of 32.

Accuweather for the same day has a high of 37 with a wintry mix changing to rain. 1.89 inches of rain that day.

Two completely different schools of thought and I'm sure they will flip flop several times before then. I'm sure a lot of the confusion has to do with the pattern change Frank, Sroc and several others have been talking about which MAY happen next week.

At least it's something to watch.

The storm Doc posted the discussion to and the one I made an analysis on (look 1 or 2 pages back) is in reference to the 18th - 3 days away

[Frank_Wx]

And Doc, I'll make a thread if 12z guidance is still showing a deepening storm.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It's  8 days away so we all know how that usually plays out but:

Next Friday the 23rd TWC has my area with a wintry mix changing to all snow with a high of 32.

Accuweather for the same day has a high of 37 with a wintry mix changing to rain. 1.89 inches of rain that day.

Two completely different schools of thought and I'm sure they will flip flop several times before then. I'm sure a lot of the confusion has to do with the pattern change Frank, Sroc and several others have been talking about which MAY happen next week.

At least it's something to watch.

The storm Doc posted the discussion to and the one I made an analysis on (look 1 or 2 pages back) is in reference to the 18th - 3 days away

Understood but we're talking about two different storms.

I'm referencing the confusion for the 23rd storm that TWC and accuweather have completely differing views on right now. I attribute the confusion the models may be having with that storm to the pattern change you reference may happen after the 21st.

[Frank_Wx]

Ahhh understood.

We will not know how the evolution of the 21st storm plays out until we get the 18th storm out of the way. The storm on the 18th could act as a 50-50 low in southeast Canada. If it does, that will have drastic differences with how the 21st storm plays out.

[skinsfan1177]

So does the storm on the 18th have potential to change to snow

[sroc4]

So does the storm on the 18th have potential to change to snow

IMO the potential exists, but is unlikely for most of us in this board. NW NJ or more likely the HV

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Skins: As the setup stands right now only north and west, probably 30 miles at least, of NYC have a decent shot at that, happening.

[Frank_Wx]

12z GFS is weak, strung out, and mainly out to sea for the 18th storm. EURO is going to lose this battle, in my opinion. Pattern supports the GFS.

[skinsfan1177]

Ok so GFS probably has it right being the pattern supports it .

[Frank_Wx]

Ok so GFS probably has it right being the pattern supports it .

In my opinion, yes. Last night I portrayed what the upper air pattern shows and that's a collapsing ridge and a poorly established block. But the storm around the 22nd will be one to watch. Should be in a better pattern then. I'll do analysis on that storm over the weekend.

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