Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map

Please click the link to read my latest blog on the possible snowstorm this Saturday night

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/02/february-14th-15th-potential-winter.html

1st Call Snow Map

Really enjoyed the update Frank, hoping for the highest possible amounts that you mentioned.

I'm hearing that the Not A Model has significantly improved!

Great writeup Frank!!! Speaking of adding support, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE 21Z SREFs CAME EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. SIGNIFICANTLY SO, I might add lol

#praying

Great read and I like the trends!

By the way, what is up with Mt Holy's 90% map? Partial update, huge difference in NW NJ.

Rejoice, the blog is here

Nice writeup. I'm concerned about the power our old boiler is all we have for heat and is electric. Plus we have bad drafts. Anyone have advice eith best way to stop the drafts. Tape off bags etc. Looking forward to 00z. This def big change of events and hopefully continues.

Great write up Frank!!

jmanley32 wrote:Nice writeup. I'm concerned about the power our old boiler is all we have for heat and is electric. Plus we have bad drafts. Anyone have advice eith best way to stop the drafts. Tape off bags etc. Looking forward to 00z. This def big change of events and hopefully continues.

Some ideas for you jman rubber weather sealing,window insulation film, draft snakes

00z N.A.M. is definitely further southwest and stronger at H5 too.

The 00z Not A Model is caving

South of LI!!!



Still hate this model.

Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z Not A Model is caving

No doubt. Lower Hudson Valley, NYC and Long Island do very well on this run thanks to the Norlun trough.

What's that mean for Long Island frank

Trying to learn....does it close off over Philly this run? Trying to see if I can read the model correctly.

Biggin23 wrote:Trying to learn....does it close off over Philly this run? Trying to see if I can read the model correctly.

This is the 500mb level. The low closes off near the Great Lakes. Where it tracks is most important. We want it as far south as possible, preferably off the coast of DE. But even south of LI puts NYC in the game for good snow

Biggin23 wrote:Trying to learn....does it close off over Philly this run? Trying to see if I can read the model correctly.

It's closed off before it gets to our area, but it continues to strengthen (deepen), which allows it to continue to dig southward as the pattern progresses it eastward.

The Not A Model and GFS in my opinion will continue playing catch up, so I would ignore the precip outputs. GGEM/UKIE/EURO are the big runs of the night. Though I want to see GFS take the upper low south of LI as well

It is a poor model but the GFS has been following it closely after each Not A Model run. We'll see if that continues with the 0Z.

Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z Not A Model is caving

Is it just me or does this picture and the colors make it look like the area is being consumed by flames?

Agree ^^

Frank , Great analysis as always !!! What time does gfs run

jmanley32 wrote:Nice writeup. I'm concerned about the power our old boiler is all we have for heat and is electric. Plus we have bad drafts. Anyone have advice eith best way to stop the drafts. Tape off bags etc. Looking forward to 00z. This def big change of events and hopefully continues.

if you live in a house that has older windows..lowes and home depot sell a window kit that you tape up and use a hairdryer to seal your windows...you can also caulk your windows and remove the caulk in the spring..saw that on today show...or use a tape...http://www.homedepot.com/p/Frost-King-E-O-2-in-x-100-ft-Interior-Exterior-Clear-Plastic-Weather-Seal-Tape-T96H/100175156 we have a problem with some of the windows upstairs in our house...(makes me mad our house is only 10 years old..but they were not installed properly and have a draft)I tape them and remove in spring..makes a big difference..

rb924119 wrote:

Biggin23 wrote:Trying to learn....does it close off over Philly this run? Trying to see if I can read the model correctly.

It's closed off before it gets to our area, but it continues to strengthen (deepen), which allows it to continue to dig southward as the pattern progresses it eastward.

What hour does it close off (for my future reference)? Is it around hour 30? The website I am using doesn't really let me see into Canada that much.