Final Call Snow Map - February 21st

amugs wrote:Gfs jumping on board shocker!!

For the life of me, I cannot understand the hole in NW NJ....doesn't make sense lol

You would think that purple line would continue from pa to ct. Maybe its the upside vs downside of mountains. Going up mountains always forces moisture out and the downside of mountains is drier.

Tapping the gulf for moisture

There is tremendous amount of real estate that thickness has to travel to mix us or plain rain here. And besides all that real estate is snow and ice covered. Hmmmmm

2004blackwrx wrote:You would think that purple line would continue from pa to ct. Maybe its the upside vs downside of mountains. Going up mountains always forces moisture out and the downside of mountains is drier.

But that's where it's confusing; with a south wind there is no downslope there lol It's like there's just a black hole there lmao

Mugs, that moisture transport is a b-e-a-UTIFULLLLL thing ahaha When we see the radar in the morning that sucker's gonna be pumping!!! Especially with the coupled jets right now, which is why we are watching it fill in as we speak.

Boys hitting the hay good night all and excited about this storm tomorrow. When I get 3" I am then officially over my seasonal average snowfall!! Thanks be to the big man!!

amugs wrote:Boys hitting the hay good night all and excited about this storm tomorrow. When I get 3" I am then officially over my seasonal average snowfall!! Thanks be to the big man!!

Night mugs!! I'm headed too. I'll see you all in the morning!!!

Night everyone, here's to hoping for a great snowstorm this weekend for all!

I will be in full storm tracking mode by 9AM.

Fighting to stay up tonight. Going to be on night shift till april.

Hey guess I missed everyone just had a nice childfree evening with the wife and sweet! Snow now to add to the fun! Guess everyone went to bed lol

Im aWAKE BUT I GOT NOTHING TO ADD BUT ITS GONNA SNOW

lo,, black I see that, looks like it could be a decent SECS even down to the city possibly. May even overperform.

yea I see 3 to 6 area wide which is good compared to yesterday. 3 is a good conservative amount but one that we all could be happy with.

I've been on here following along. I'll check in in the morning. I
I think a lot of forecasts are gonna bust low when it comes to LI. We'll see. Goodnight all.

NWS has cancelled the WSWatch and down graded it to a WWA. Their calling for 1-3in of snow. Yet to the South of me their forecast is for 3-5in. But local mets are saying 4-7in. possibly up to 9in in spots. Has this storm moved futher South ?

SNOW MAN wrote:NWS has cancelled the WSWatch and down graded it to a WWA. Their calling for 1-3in of snow. Yet to the South of me their forecast is for 3-5in. But local mets are saying 4-7in. possibly up to 9in in spots. Has this storm moved futher South ?

No? I'd just ignore that lol, the nws doesn't decide how much snow you'll get.

Radar looks great at this hour...

Frank_Wx wrote:Tomorrow I should be on here nowcasting the storm. Should be fun trying to determine how quickly the changeover may occur. The extremely anomalous cold air mass trying to be overidden by warmth is going to call for some crazy snow rates tomorrow. Possibly 2" an hour.

I def agree with you Syo regarding people(esp TV mets) busting low for LI for this very reason. I mean maybe not, but as Frank says there will be some crazy rate at points during this storm, and although the axis of the heaviest QPF seems slightly N and W of LI, it is not that far away, and I bet parts of LI get in on some quick heavy intense banding. Out by you more so than me.

I mean Dang that looks impressive:

Nws went from 4 to 6 to 2 to 3 on map but has 3 to 7 in wwa huh?

Based solely on radar interpretation, this is coming in quickly, guns blazing and we could see some nice totals by late this evening

jmanley32 wrote:Nws went from 4 to 6 to 2 to 3 on map but has 3 to 7 in wwa huh?

Jman they make me laugh.  I mean they have already changed there forecast 3 times in 24hrs for my area.  this is what they looked like yest morning this time.  Then 4pm udate yesterday they had pretty much all of LI in the <1", and now again they are back to 2-3".  I mean grow a set, make a foprecast and stick to it.  Then when you now cast make your changes.  Its an embarrassment.  Sorry this is banter...I digress.    

I think cnj coast is in for a surprise I don't doubt we change to rain at some point but I feel we get some snow Mayne even 3 plus inches before a change over it's 1° outside snowpack ocean is 34° all things going our way

If I had to guess areas N and W on LI of the yellow line see more like 3-5" with a slight chance of lollipops to 6" the further N and W on LI.
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skinsfan1177 wrote:I think cnj coast is in for a surprise I don't doubt we change to rain at some point but I feel we get some snow Mayne even 3 plus inches before a change over it's 1° outside snowpack ocean is 34° all things going our way

Wouldn't surprise me. Should be a great now cast for you and for I Skins

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Nws went from 4 to 6 to 2 to 3 on map but has 3 to 7 in wwa huh?

Jman they make me laugh.  I mean they have already changed there forecast 3 times in 24hrs for my area.  this is what they looked like yest morning this time.  Then 4pm udate yesterday they had pretty much all of LI in the <1", and now again they are back to 2-3".  I mean grow a set, make a foprecast and stick to it.  Then when you now cast make your changes.  Its an embarrassment.  Sorry this is banter...I digress.    

Thank you Doc for putting into words the exact way I feel about the NWS song and dance on this storm!

ya it really is sroc, i used to trust in them a lot more.