Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

*BLOG*

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/03/wild-weather-week-could-end-with-big.html

Here is the deal for this week:

1. Snow is going to break out over the area early Sunday afternoon and continue into early Monday morning. A mix to ice or rain is possible for NYC by Sunday evening, but models are still trying to figure that out. Refer to the other thread for the latest details. I'm expecting a minimum of 3 inches of snow for NYC.

2. There are 2 additional waves of energy that are likely to impact our area during the week. Tuesday night into Wednesday, expect moderate to heavy rain due to a 992mb low pressure system cutting into the Great Lakes. Temps are likely to get into the mid 40's on Wednesday.



3. The last wave could bring us either more rain or accumulating snow. This is still being ironed out by the models and they keep waffling with the timing. Most likely this would not start until early Thursday morning.



You can see the gfs has moderate snow, heavy at times over LI, Thursday morning. This setup is a very unusual one that has high bust potential. There will be a stationary front along the east coast thanks to the Tuesday rainstorm. Behind it, a large mid-level trough containing loads of upper air energy is racing toward the coast and colliding with the front. Along that gradient, a surface low is likely to develop and track to our south and east. How quickly the trough turns from positive to neutrally tilted will determine how far north the snow gets. That said, we also have to make sure the surface low and accompanying precip forms when the cold air gets here from the trough. If not, it would be additional rain for the week.

This is a tricky evolution and one I have not forecasted in quite some time so bare with me on this one. Understand the potential for additional snowfall is possible on Thursday.

Frank there is a strong likelihood will see this system weaken as others have this winter as it heads east. euro and 18z GFS starting to hint at this with much less precipitation from the Tuesday night system. so what are we looking for from this. do we want it to be stronger and push the boundaries south of us or if its weaker with less rain the boundary could be either over us or west of us. which is the better option? as far as temps here is National Weather Service take on it from the disco.
"RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRACKS TOWARDS THE E COAST MON NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDING E TUE AFTN. PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY TUE EVENING AS SNOW...BUT WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND STRONG WAA TEMPS WILL WARM TUE NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM S TO N. WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE LLJ WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH IT THROUGH AT THE SFC. CLIMATOLOGY SAYS NO WITH THE LOW SO FAR TO THE NW...SO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MAY BE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...DO THINK TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS...IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUNDARY LATE WED NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY COULD KEEP PCPN LINGERING INTO THU...ALTHOUGH THE TREND HAS BEEN S OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR NOW. COLD WEATHER ALSO RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND BOUNDARY."
what's also a possibility is that with the system cutting so far west we end up with a warm front that gets hung up and get mostly snow and little bit of rain behind it and then watch for the second wave to see what path it takes and where the boundary sets up

the storms over the past month haven't had a chance to amplify because of the progressive pattern we are in probably thanks to the qbo. with the second wave on Thursday the NAO looks to be going neutral and maybe it can slow this down and consolidate the energy and form a nice low and come up the coast. what do you think?

sroc4 on Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:54 pm

Hi. We will see if it works out.




I think there ends up being a second wave of energy that ejects out from the SW and trys to interact with the N jet and the biggest threat is actually on Thursday.

00z NAM is a quick few inches of snow then sleet to rain for Wednesday. Still have some time.

look at that low over texas. where does it go?

Behold. Wave 2 will be weaker. It will snow and ice on the front and wave 3 will come North!

Bookend snow storm week to end our winter season?With snow and Ice in between Tuesday night into wed morning
Gone is 1 to 2 inches of rain. The BL Tuesday will be cool as HP builds in
It will not get out of the way fast enough.
So the over running will catch the cold before it's forced out. Watch how this unfolds. And why? The -EPO peeps.

GEFS say OP are you in that Hooka bar again in Denver!!

Looks like the Super Bowl storm set up once again - barclonic boundary set up is what will make or break this storm - a lot of time here peeps

I will update this thread tonight, maybe with a blog.

@Frank did you see the 12z ukie ??

Looks like the 12z euro but better!!



Nice but we will see.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRACKS MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUE. PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS SNOW...BUT WITH INCREASING S-SW
WINDS AND STRONG WAA TEMPS WILL WARM TUE EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. WARM FRONT LIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE
LLJ WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH IT THROUGH AT THE SFC. CLIMATOLOGY
SAYS NO WITH THE LOW SO FAR TO THE NW AND VERY COLD WATERS/ICE...SO
HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WED...GENERALLY LOWER 40S WITH
MID 40S POSSIBLE IN NYC METRO.

aiannone wrote:
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRACKS MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUE. PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS SNOW...BUT WITH INCREASING S-SW
WINDS AND STRONG WAA TEMPS WILL WARM TUE EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. WARM FRONT LIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE
LLJ WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH IT THROUGH AT THE SFC. CLIMATOLOGY
SAYS NO WITH THE LOW SO FAR TO THE NW AND VERY COLD WATERS/ICE...SO
HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WED...GENERALLY LOWER 40S WITH
MID 40S POSSIBLE IN NYC METRO.

Yes, this is the 2nd wave on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Snow-Ice to rain (not thinking big snow amounts but could be a considerable amount of ice).

What this thread is mainly for is the Thursday wave. Could be a big snowstorm. We can use this thread to track both though

Early Thursday morning per latest GFS...

moderate to heavy snow

Frank GFS 24hrs ago was a near miss for us and crushing DC and to the DelMarva. Now it is trending North. I am saying this and said it earlier we end this winter with a MECS and

CP you hear that. Well HV (you and doc) will get a SECS or two in late March and maybe early April.

GFS showing a couple of inches of snow in NNJ and LHV in the beginning and then ice ice baby. CAD - low level cold AGAIN!!!

Here you go from looking at the models and not Kate Upton HAHAHA but it will that good be when all is said and done IMO!! She is hawt big time!!!

This is set up very similar to a few storms from last Jan and the super bowl storm in Feb. The arctic front presses into the SE ridge and then a wave comes out of the Tenn Valley .
Its all through Minus 10 air so the 10 to 1 snow maps will be underdone IMO.

What amounts would we be looking at with the possible snowstorm with ratios included? I'm assuming a lot?

Kudos to Sroc for recognizing the potential with the 3rd wave and calling it last week. Great call Scott. We'll see if it pans out now

snow247 wrote:What amounts would we be looking at with the possible snowstorm with ratios included? I'm assuming a lot?

That is a great question Snow. I do not know but if we phase fully we CAN see Godzilla 12"+ but I am not hyping it here just stating a potential so DO NOT anyone come back and spin my words.

I am seeing something like the Superbowl of 6"+ but many days before we get to this.

Anyway this March or Feb 15 forward is kicking last years 2014 March in the arse and nuts at the same time !!!

Could be even bigger and LASTLY, F the talk about the SUN ANGLE ok - look at today. If this were March 15th or later I can see this but not this early in the month

is there anything "for sure" about this storm? meaning definitely snow just how much? or can it be rain or nothing?

lglickman1 wrote:is there anything "for sure" about this storm? meaning definitely snow just how much? or can it be rain or nothing?

Nothing for sure. Could be anything from snow, rain, or nothing. Though the "nothing" option is quickly losing momentum. Current thinking is rain to snow. Not sure of amounts.

Just watched NBC 10 in Philly Glen "Hurricane" Schwartz is calling for snow on Thursday with temperatures in the 20's for their area. So what does that mean for our area ? Hmmm.

Hmmm a ice storm with possible godzilla following, that will be fun driving conditions. Def going to be a fun week! Little time to breathe in between!

Ryan Maue posted about Thursday saying 12-18 total, bold to come out with totals going verbatim by his snow maps when he knows GFS counts all precip types into the snow map. Still looking forward to the possibility, so it looks like a big long streaming band? Not a LP system?