March 14th-15th Possible Storm

if I were a betting man I wouldn't bet against the trends this last month or so. basically events have trended colder as we get closer and it seems like it just wants to snow in our area. i understand we are in march now but still early enough. why should we expect that to change?

RB , great write up !! Thanks for everything you post !

Ice storm yay lol, how many times have we had that this year, I feel like more than any other year I can remember. No one solution can be right at this point. And what is up with the GFS and CMC suddenly blowing up the LP as it heads east? That was not shown on previous runs. Al I thought snow maps were supposed to be in banter until 96 hrs, hehe bad on you! JK

I'm torn. Today felt great outside, yet I only need 4 more inches to get to 70" for me here IMBY which I think is the 3rd snowiest season of my life!!!!! If I'm wrong Math will correct me.

Still keeping an eye on this. GFS lost its snowy solution from 6z this morning and has trended much warmer to look like other guidance. Interesting that the EPS is a little colder than the operational. Again, depends on positioning of the High

It looks like this one is pretty much dead for now, except maybe for Alex.

I never gave it that much hope, but that 2 foot snow map from 2 days ago on the GFS will always draw me in even they I know they never verify that far out.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:It looks like this one is pretty much dead for now, except maybe for Alex.

I never gave it that much hope, but that 2 foot snow map from 2 days ago on the GFS will always draw me in even they I know they never verify that far out.

Models are showing a good slug of rain now. Especially eastern sections of the area...

The 00z EURO / 06z GFS runs are in agreement of a 1-2" rainfall this weekend with little to no wintry precipitation at all to deal with. Unless you're looking forward to rain, this threat is quickly diminishing. I will leave this thread open 1 more day to see if there is a sudden trend in the opposite direction.

My point and click for tonight:

Sleet likely, possibly mixed with snow before 5am, then rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. Low around 31. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Freezing rain advisory for northern counties.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

...ICY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

CTZ005>007-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-141000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.ZR.Y.0004.150314T0400Z-150314T1400Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
336 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN NEW YORK...AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY IN NEW
JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...QUICKLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO ICY
ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$