i like ur outlook forcast even nick gregory sees a colder and stormer pattern from late next week and maybe snow event next sat bring on the snow snow snow

[frank 638]

As Isotherm so eloquently (to this weenie) stated last night about the N NAO and when you look at today's run it is already more bullish on the Greenland / -NAO height rises. The models should continue to pick up on this with each run and I firmly believe will get colder as well with the -epo going to lock in do the GOA LP retrograding to sw of the Aleutians big time and a huge +pna.

Dates to watch +1/-1 for each in Feb/March as Mugs Stradamus looks into his snow globe weenie style for storms:
5th
8th
10-12th
14-17th PD tres
20-22nd
24-26th Snowicane deuce
3/2-4
3/7-10

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Mugstradamus?

We shall see, but I like it, I like it a lot. The name and the usual optimism.

[skinsfan1177]

I'm hearing lots of cutters in the LR this would not be good is anyone seeing something different

[hyde345]

There are cutters in the long range on the GFS but I wouldn't really put too much stock in any of that beyond 10 days.

[amugs]

Don't worry gfs op this far is on crack. GEFS and EPS show otherwise and 500mb maps do too. Neg AO with N epo bleeding over to neg NAO making a bridge with a big pna and it is going to cut?? Hahahahaha! I know peeps will say and winter cancel . From the 5th to 25 and possibly March 10th ( euro para weeklies shiwing this extended till then)e are BN cold with many storm chances as I called. If we get all then u all buy me drinks at the future g2g forever!!!

[skinsfan1177]

Don't worry gfs op this far is on crack. GEFS and EPS show otherwise and 500mb maps do too. Neg AO with N epo bleeding over to neg NAO making a bridge with a big pna and it is going to cut?? Hahahahaha! I know peeps will say and winter cancel . From the 5th to 25 and possibly March 10th ( euro para weeklies shiwing this extended till then)e are BN cold with many storm chances as I called. If we get all then u all buy me drinks at the future g2g forever!!!

Why do others on the other site say that do they look at somethimg different one person on their is always negative. They have great info but sometimes its overwhelming with negativity.

[amugs]

0z showing Mugstradamus storm #1



only 156hrs out HAHAHAHA!!!

[amugs]

CMC AGREES

[amugs]

HOLY COLD CMC

[amugs]

FBB 8TH #2

[amugs]

FEB 11TH #3

GREAT POSITION THIS FAR OUT




JUST WAIT TILL THE MODELS START TO PICK UP ON THE NAO, EPO AND PNA

I AM TELLING U PEEPS THESE DATES ARE FOR REAL!!!

[amugs]

FEB14TH #4



IF THIS WHERE TO HIT SNOW RATIOS WOULD BE LIKE LAST YEAR SNOWSTORMS - 15:1 TO 22:1 - .4" OF PRECIP WOULD BE AWESOME!!

[Snow88]

Nice snow event for Friday from GGEM and GFS

[NjWeatherGuy]

Im liking how Feb is looking as of now. Do not get discouraged by the warm weekend, no cliff jumpers! Who cares if this large storms snowpack mostly melted away, was too large anyway, we can keep a small one a build up a bigger pack and hopefully ice on streams and lakes if we get a real cold stretch. Optimism folks!

[SNOW MAN]

Mug's you and NJ are really starting to get me reeved up about February. Even the Mets out at Penn State tonight were talking about having a possible snow event between the 7th and the 10th in their 12 day outlook. They said the one on the 7th wouldn't be a big storm, but the one on the 10th as they put it "can you say East coast snow storm".
 The Delaware river is already frozen all the way across in some spots where the water doesn't flow as fast. Hopefully I'll get to see it frozen over completely by the end of next month just like last Winter. I'm hoping all of these storms that your showing really come together and bury us in that white gold.

[docstox12]

Im liking how Feb is looking as of now. Do not get discouraged by the warm weekend, no cliff jumpers! Who cares if this large storms snowpack mostly melted away, was too large anyway, we can keep a small one a build up a bigger pack and hopefully ice on streams and lakes if we get a real cold stretch. Optimism folks!

Don't think there will be any snowpack to start with.NWS has me up north for 55 degrees and showers weds and the 40's every other day except friday.

Anyway, the long range does look good for feb, usually the best snow producing month around these parts.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Im liking how Feb is looking as of now. Do not get discouraged by the warm weekend, no cliff jumpers! Who cares if this large storms snowpack mostly melted away, was too large anyway, we can keep a small one a build up a bigger pack and hopefully ice on streams and lakes if we get a real cold stretch. Optimism folks!

Don't think there will be any snowpack to start with.NWS has me up north for 55 degrees and showers weds and the 40's every other day except friday.

Anyway, the long range does look good for feb, usually the best snow producing month around these parts.

There will definately still be piles around and where the bigger drifts were, at least in my neck of the woods IMO. BTW 6z GFS hinting at a triple phaser in the semi LR. Go to hrs 264/276

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_6z/mrfloop2.html#picture

[skinsfan1177]

Yeah even here their will no doubt still be snowpack everything is like a giant ice cube hard as a rock with the melting at day and refreeze at night. I really hope the LR comes through

[sroc4]

Don't worry gfs op this far is on crack. GEFS and EPS show otherwise and 500mb maps do too. Neg AO with N epo bleeding over to neg NAO making a bridge with a big pna and it is going to cut?? Hahahahaha! I know peeps will say and winter cancel . From the 5th to 25 and possibly March 10th ( euro para weeklies shiwing this extended till then)e are BN cold with many storm chances as I called. If we get all then u all buy me drinks at the future g2g forever!!!

Why do others on the other site say that do they look at somethimg different one person on their is always negative. They have great info but sometimes its overwhelming with negativity.

Hey Skins I saw you posted this last night as well.  I hadn't had a chance to look at much in detail until this morning.  If I had another 1-2hrs I would put together a blog with images.  My guess is the other weenies live in die by individual model runs.  They see a run and interpret it down to the last detail and claim they have a clue where the pattern is going.  People like that are also the first to make a 180 when the models change and claim they were on it all along.  

Times like this you really truly have to step back and look at the big picture before taking any definitive stance on the LR.  Any coincidence that we haven't heard much from Frank??  We are in a period of relax and reload.  There are big picture, pattern driver changes a brew that can and will dictate how the LR goes, but any time you get the state of flux like we are in now there is no way you can look at an operational model and think you have a clue what the hell your talking about.  If the weenies on the other board want to claim they see cutter after cutter in the LR then let them.  If they are right, its not because they had a clue, but because the sun shines on a dogs ass every now and then. (Feel free to copy and paste this in the other board).   If you are going to look at a model look at the ensemble forecasts for the GFS or Euro, and maybe sprinkle in the CMC ens as well do get an idea.  

Here are the big picture ideas, or major pattern drivers that I am looking at to determine where I think the pattern is headed.

1) the stratosphere.  There are indicators that the changes in the stratosphere would lead to more favorable conditions for cold and storminess in the eastern half of the country
2) The MJO.  There are contradictions between the GFS and Euro MJO forecasts.  GFS wants it to lag in the phase 3(cold phase); whereas euro tries to bring it into 4/5(warm phases).  The LR euro ens forecast actually is contradictory to its MJO forecast in that it is forecasting arctic intrusions, and storm chances into the east beyond the 3rd-5th.  The euro has been a better handler of the MJO for most of the season to date.
3) Teleconnections: The return of the -EPO, +PNA, -AO are looking better and better as time goes on.  The re-est of the -NAO is also looking better and better as well.  
4) El Nino conts to weaken/tropical forcing east of the dateline  

If you look at the teleconnections I think the system around the 5th-7th will trend stronger and better.  Sorry Mugsradomous aka St Mugsy,  if this one happens its mine.  I called this one several days ago.    But there is no doubt as Mugs has pointed out that the pattern is ripe for several storm chances as we move forward.  This of course does not mean any or all will or will not produce the outcome we look for.  

You must remember that the pattern is the sum of all parts.  I believe the Strat changes, and EPO/AO couplet become the dominate drivers with the PNA and NAO really enhancing our storm chances.  The tropical forcing mechanisms east of the dateline in association with our Nino end up enhancing the aforementioned blocking and the MJO influences this time around will be muted.  I cannot say this with 100% confidence at all; however,  I do not buy the warm Feb idea at all.  The cutter that will be a beast for the midest and plains will be an important feature, but not the end all be all, in the transition in overall pattern once it lifts into Canada so we have to give the models, ensembles included, some time to digest that system  as we head into the 1st of Feb.  Since Frank has been quiet for a little while I would expect him to have a new state of the union coming for this weeks Mo Mo.  If there is any thing to add, or enforce, or disagree with I will try to do a more in depth blog on Tuesday.

[weatherwatchermom]

Don't worry gfs op this far is on crack. GEFS and EPS show otherwise and 500mb maps do too. Neg AO with N epo bleeding over to neg NAO making a bridge with a big pna and it is going to cut?? Hahahahaha! I know peeps will say and winter cancel . From the 5th to 25 and possibly March 10th ( euro para weeklies shiwing this extended till then)e are BN cold with many storm chances as I called. If we get all then u all buy me drinks at the future g2g forever!!!

Why do others on the other site say that do they look at somethimg different one person on their is always negative. They have great info but sometimes its overwhelming with negativity.

Hey Skins I saw you posted this last night as well.  I hadn't had a chance to look at much in detail until this morning.  If I had another 1-2hrs I would put together a blog with images.  My guess is the other weenies live in die by individual model runs.  They see a run and interpret it down to the last detail and claim they have a clue where the pattern is going.  People like that are also the first to make a 180 when the models change and claim they were on it all along.  

Times like this you really truly have to step back and look at the big picture before taking any definitive stance on the LR.  Any coincidence that we haven't heard much from Frank??  We are in a period of relax and reload.  There are big picture, pattern driver changes a brew that can and will dictate how the LR goes, but any time you get the state of flux like we are in now there is no way you can look at an operational model and think you have a clue what the hell your talking about.  If the weenies on the other board want to claim they see cutter after cutter in the LR then let them.  If they are right, its not because they had a clue, but because the sun shines on a dogs ass every now and then. (Feel free to copy and paste this in the other board).   If you are going to look at a model look at the ensemble forecasts for the GFS or Euro, and maybe sprinkle in the CMC ens as well do get an idea.  

Here are the big picture ideas, or major pattern drivers that I am looking at to determine where I think the pattern is headed.

1) the stratosphere.  There are indicators that the changes in the stratosphere would lead to more favorable conditions for cold and storminess in the eastern half of the country
2) The MJO.  There are contradictions between the GFS and Euro MJO forecasts.  GFS wants it to lag in the phase 3(cold phase); whereas euro tries to bring it into 4/5(warm phases).  The LR euro ens forecast actually is contradictory to its MJO forecast in that it is forecasting arctic intrusions, and storm chances into the east beyond the 3rd-5th.  The euro has been a better handler of the MJO for most of the season to date.
3) Teleconnections: The return of the -EPO, +PNA, -AO are looking better and better as time goes on.  The re-est of the -NAO is also looking better and better as well.  
4) El Nino conts to weaken/tropical forcing east of the dateline  

If you look at the teleconnections I think the system around the 5th-7th will trend stronger and better.  Sorry Mugsradomous aka St Mugsy,  if this one happens its mine.  I called this one several days ago.    But there is no doubt as Mugs has pointed out that the pattern is ripe for several storm chances as we move forward.  This of course does not mean any or all will or will not produce the outcome we look for.  

You must remember that the pattern is the sum of all parts.  I believe the Strat changes, and EPO/AO couplet become the dominate drivers with the PNA and NAO really enhancing our storm chances.  The tropical forcing mechanisms east of the dateline in association with our Nino end up enhancing the aforementioned blocking and the MJO influences this time around will be muted.  I cannot say this with 100% confidence at all; however,  I do not buy the warm Feb idea at all.  The cutter that will be a beast for the midest and plains will be an important feature, but not the end all be all, in the transition in overall pattern once it lifts into Canada so we have to give the models, ensembles included, some time to digest that system  as we head into the 1st of Feb.  Since Frank has been quiet for a little while I would expect him to have a new state of the union coming for this weeks Mo Mo.  If there is any thing to add, or enforce, or disagree with I will try to do a more in depth blog on Tuesday.

Thank you for always giving us a write up that is thorough, insightful, and easy to understand!! enjoy your weekend.

[sroc4]

Don't worry gfs op this far is on crack. GEFS and EPS show otherwise and 500mb maps do too. Neg AO with N epo bleeding over to neg NAO making a bridge with a big pna and it is going to cut?? Hahahahaha! I know peeps will say and winter cancel . From the 5th to 25 and possibly March 10th ( euro para weeklies shiwing this extended till then)e are BN cold with many storm chances as I called. If we get all then u all buy me drinks at the future g2g forever!!!

Why do others on the other site say that do they look at somethimg different one person on their is always negative. They have great info but sometimes its overwhelming with negativity.

Hey Skins I saw you posted this last night as well.  I hadn't had a chance to look at much in detail until this morning.  If I had another 1-2hrs I would put together a blog with images.  My guess is the other weenies live in die by individual model runs.  They see a run and interpret it down to the last detail and claim they have a clue where the pattern is going.  People like that are also the first to make a 180 when the models change and claim they were on it all along.  

Times like this you really truly have to step back and look at the big picture before taking any definitive stance on the LR.  Any coincidence that we haven't heard much from Frank??  We are in a period of relax and reload.  There are big picture, pattern driver changes a brew that can and will dictate how the LR goes, but any time you get the state of flux like we are in now there is no way you can look at an operational model and think you have a clue what the hell your talking about.  If the weenies on the other board want to claim they see cutter after cutter in the LR then let them.  If they are right, its not because they had a clue, but because the sun shines on a dogs ass every now and then. (Feel free to copy and paste this in the other board).   If you are going to look at a model look at the ensemble forecasts for the GFS or Euro, and maybe sprinkle in the CMC ens as well do get an idea.  

Here are the big picture ideas, or major pattern drivers that I am looking at to determine where I think the pattern is headed.

1) the stratosphere.  There are indicators that the changes in the stratosphere would lead to more favorable conditions for cold and storminess in the eastern half of the country
2) The MJO.  There are contradictions between the GFS and Euro MJO forecasts.  GFS wants it to lag in the phase 3(cold phase); whereas euro tries to bring it into 4/5(warm phases).  The LR euro ens forecast actually is contradictory to its MJO forecast in that it is forecasting arctic intrusions, and storm chances into the east beyond the 3rd-5th.  The euro has been a better handler of the MJO for most of the season to date.
3) Teleconnections: The return of the -EPO, +PNA, -AO are looking better and better as time goes on.  The re-est of the -NAO is also looking better and better as well.  
4) El Nino conts to weaken/tropical forcing east of the dateline  

If you look at the teleconnections I think the system around the 5th-7th will trend stronger and better.  Sorry Mugsradomous aka St Mugsy,  if this one happens its mine.  I called this one several days ago.    But there is no doubt as Mugs has pointed out that the pattern is ripe for several storm chances as we move forward.  This of course does not mean any or all will or will not produce the outcome we look for.  

You must remember that the pattern is the sum of all parts.  I believe the Strat changes, and EPO/AO couplet become the dominate drivers with the PNA and NAO really enhancing our storm chances.  The tropical forcing mechanisms east of the dateline in association with our Nino end up enhancing the aforementioned blocking and the MJO influences this time around will be muted.  I cannot say this with 100% confidence at all; however,  I do not buy the warm Feb idea at all.  The cutter that will be a beast for the midest and plains will be an important feature, but not the end all be all, in the transition in overall pattern once it lifts into Canada so we have to give the models, ensembles included, some time to digest that system  as we head into the 1st of Feb.  Since Frank has been quiet for a little while I would expect him to have a new state of the union coming for this weeks Mo Mo.  If there is any thing to add, or enforce, or disagree with I will try to do a more in depth blog on Tuesday.

Thank you for always giving us a write up that is thorough, insightful, and easy to understand!! enjoy your weekend.

You are so welcome weather watcher mom

[rb924119]

Great post, Sroc!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

There is nothing like waking up on a weekend morning, getting your coffee and sitting down to an in depth analysis from Sroc or Frank. It starts the weekend off right, even when the news isn't so great. Extra special today because it sounds like there's still plenty of hope.

I save my Mugsy readings for after my coffee. Anyone that reads his stuff understands why.

[sroc4]

It going to be extremely hard to look past the 40's and 50's come mid week, but then we get back into it.

[Frank_Wx]

The next Mo Mo will have all the specifics, including a high level discussion about our next storm threat February 9th-12th. There is a lot to love about the upcoming pattern once we get through this week. It's reminiscent of our winter patterns from 2014-2015. Anomalous negative EPO develops which displaces the Arcric cold in the North Pole into our latitude. It's going to be interesting to see how this type of pattern meshes with the strong El Nino. I've been saying it for awhile but I think February will definitely end up being the coldest month and we'll also be tracking another Godzilla before all is said and done.

[nutleyblizzard]

The next Mo Mo will have all the specifics, including a high level discussion about our next storm threat February 9th-12th. There is a lot to love about the upcoming pattern once we get through this week. It's reminiscent of our winter patterns from 2014-2015. Anomalous negative EPO develops which displaces the Arcric cold in the North Pole into our latitude. It's going to be interesting to see how this type of pattern meshes with the strong El Nino. I've been saying it for awhile but I think February will definitely end up being the coldest month and we'll also be tracking another Godzilla before all is said and done.

Fun times ahead indeed Frank. Mugs mentions about the LR outlook with regards of the models are having a tough time picking up with the development of Atlantic blocking which seems to be trending stronger as we move closer in. That would help to aid in helping to achieve another major snow event. Something to keep an eye out in future model runs.

[skinsfan1177]

Don't worry gfs op this far is on crack. GEFS and EPS show otherwise and 500mb maps do too. Neg AO with N epo bleeding over to neg NAO making a bridge with a big pna and it is going to cut?? Hahahahaha! I know peeps will say and winter cancel . From the 5th to 25 and possibly March 10th ( euro para weeklies shiwing this extended till then)e are BN cold with many storm chances as I called. If we get all then u all buy me drinks at the future g2g forever!!!

Why do others on the other site say that do they look at somethimg different one person on their is always negative. They have great info but sometimes its overwhelming with negativity.

Hey Skins I saw you posted this last night as well.  I hadn't had a chance to look at much in detail until this morning.  If I had another 1-2hrs I would put together a blog with images.  My guess is the other weenies live in die by individual model runs.  They see a run and interpret it down to the last detail and claim they have a clue where the pattern is going.  People like that are also the first to make a 180 when the models change and claim they were on it all along.  

Times like this you really truly have to step back and look at the big picture before taking any definitive stance on the LR.  Any coincidence that we haven't heard much from Frank??  We are in a period of relax and reload.  There are big picture, pattern driver changes a brew that can and will dictate how the LR goes, but any time you get the state of flux like we are in now there is no way you can look at an operational model and think you have a clue what the hell your talking about.  If the weenies on the other board want to claim they see cutter after cutter in the LR then let them.  If they are right, its not because they had a clue, but because the sun shines on a dogs ass every now and then. (Feel free to copy and paste this in the other board).   If you are going to look at a model look at the ensemble forecasts for the GFS or Euro, and maybe sprinkle in the CMC ens as well do get an idea.  

Here are the big picture ideas, or major pattern drivers that I am looking at to determine where I think the pattern is headed.

1) the stratosphere.  There are indicators that the changes in the stratosphere would lead to more favorable conditions for cold and storminess in the eastern half of the country
2) The MJO.  There are contradictions between the GFS and Euro MJO forecasts.  GFS wants it to lag in the phase 3(cold phase); whereas euro tries to bring it into 4/5(warm phases).  The LR euro ens forecast actually is contradictory to its MJO forecast in that it is forecasting arctic intrusions, and storm chances into the east beyond the 3rd-5th.  The euro has been a better handler of the MJO for most of the season to date.
3) Teleconnections: The return of the -EPO, +PNA, -AO are looking better and better as time goes on.  The re-est of the -NAO is also looking better and better as well.  
4) El Nino conts to weaken/tropical forcing east of the dateline  

If you look at the teleconnections I think the system around the 5th-7th will trend stronger and better.  Sorry Mugsradomous aka St Mugsy,  if this one happens its mine.  I called this one several days ago.    But there is no doubt as Mugs has pointed out that the pattern is ripe for several storm chances as we move forward.  This of course does not mean any or all will or will not produce the outcome we look for.  

You must remember that the pattern is the sum of all parts.  I believe the Strat changes, and EPO/AO couplet become the dominate drivers with the PNA and NAO really enhancing our storm chances.  The tropical forcing mechanisms east of the dateline in association with our Nino end up enhancing the aforementioned blocking and the MJO influences this time around will be muted.  I cannot say this with 100% confidence at all; however,  I do not buy the warm Feb idea at all.  The cutter that will be a beast for the midest and plains will be an important feature, but not the end all be all, in the transition in overall pattern once it lifts into Canada so we have to give the models, ensembles included, some time to digest that system  as we head into the 1st of Feb.  Since Frank has been quiet for a little while I would expect him to have a new state of the union coming for this weeks Mo Mo.  If there is any thing to add, or enforce, or disagree with I will try to do a more in depth blog on Tuesday.

Thank you for always giving us a write up that is thorough, insightful, and easy to understand!! enjoy your weekend.

Sroc what a great write up and great understanding as we move forward. Thank you for this write up. Nothing but positive vibes here!

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