Re: 01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:09 pm

I don't think temps are an issue except for snj .

by **jake732** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:12 pm

skinns, by snj do u mean a/c or even more up the coast,say where i am in ocean county?

by Teetghhuhnbhj Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:16 pm

Jake, skins is in ocean county where you are. I'm no expert but I think this is going to be big. We all just have to wait. Even the best forecasters in the world will never know for certain what the weather will do. They're jobs are mainly guidance and predictions. These guys are really good at what they do on this site.

by **Grselig** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:25 pm

Bernie Rayno's video

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/4709877289001/large-sinkhole-opens-up-in-california-sidewalk?autoStart=true

by jwalsh Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:26 pm

frank 638 wrote:Will this storm be similar to the storm of 93

We're not able to completely compare these two yet, as there's still lots of uncertainty, but so far, we can say that the formations are pretty different. This one will form from upper-level energy coming across the country from the west. This will then likely develop into a low-pressure system once it passes the Rockies, and most scenarios end with this only affecting the mid-Atlantic and/or the Northeast. This is different from the storm in '93, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico and affected pretty much the entire East Coast and Eastern Canada.

Oh, and by the way, this is my first post on the forum! Hey everyone, I'm excited to track some storms here! Laughing

by **lglickman1** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:27 pm

Not that I am complaining about what is being shown on the euro snow total map for the NYC area, but can someone explain why the snow total on the Euro is so high in the Virginia/West Virginia area? Is banding supposed to be more intense there? Is the storm duration supposed to be longer there?

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:27 pm

EPS was a major hit I am reading from another board NW of the OP with the SLP which means even more snow since the H5 matured slower took 21 hours to frim obx to just se of the BM many members showing 10 plus inches

This is just sick!!
01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 19 B8276009ffb0529259752cfc7d0c8f41

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 19 B8276009ffb0529259752cfc7d0c8f41

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:29 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Not that I am complaining about what is being shown on the euro snow total map for the NYC area, but can someone explain why the snow total on the Euro is so high in the Virginia/West Virginia area? Is banding supposed to be more intense there? Is the storm duration supposed to be longer there?

Crazy as it may sound rb examined that she matures too fast and with the occluding snows herself out weakens as she comes up to our latitude. That could be bias, model noise at this time but it is something to keep an eye on.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:30 pm

jwalsh wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Will this storm be similar to the storm of 93
We're not able to completely compare these two yet, as there's still lots of uncertainty, but so far, we can say that the formations are pretty different. This one will form from upper-level energy coming across the country from the west. This will then likely develop into a low-pressure system once it passes the Rockies, and most scenarios end with this only affecting the mid-Atlantic and/or the Northeast. This is different from the storm in '93, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico and affected pretty much the entire East Coast and Eastern Canada.

Oh, and by the way, this is my first post on the forum! Hey everyone, I'm excited to track some storms here!

And a great first post at that. Welcome!!

lglickman1 wrote:Not that I am complaining about what is being shown on the euro snow total map for the NYC area, but can someone explain why the snow total on the Euro is so high in the Virginia/West Virginia area? Is banding supposed to be more intense there? Is the storm duration supposed to be longer there?

The H5 low becomes very organized and essentially blossoms the surface with very heavy precip amounts. It basically matures around the Mid-Atlantic and then it gets weaker as it moves north into our area.

by **algae888** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:30 pm

wow was out all day today but following on my phone. great developments today and as frank states in the scroll unprecedented model agreement. I do not recall such agreement so far out. cuddos to the gfs and cmc for sniffing this one out. gfs has done better recently than euro, remember euro had yesterdays system down in cuba a few days ago. hopefully the trends continue and me and jman will jackpot as the cmc showed today...

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:31 pm

Jwalsh,

Welcome and thanks for joining. Great first post and look forward to future posts.

Mugs

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:31 pm

amugs wrote:EPS was a major hit I am reading from another board NW of the OP with the SLP which means even more snow since the H5 matured slower took 21 hours to frim obx to just se of the BM many members showing 10 plus inches

This is just sick!!

Good news.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:34 pm

Frank get back to work!!!! Don't u have m&ms to make??

by jwalsh Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:36 pm

Thanks for the welcome! Very Happy

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:03 pm

Interesting bi-modal distribution of H5 spaghettis for the EC ensemble with regard to the East Coast trough:

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 19 ECM_12_enUS_H50S_0114

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 19 ECM_12_enUS_H50S_0114

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 19 ECM_12_enUS_H50S_0120

Interior cluster = GFS/CMC solution.
Cluster near the mean = Operational solution

Will be interesting to see how that evolves. Definite strides towards the GFS/CMC camp today, though, so the western trend may hold.

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:06 pm

jwalsh wrote:Thanks for the welcome!

by Snowfall Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:12 pm

Some places in jersey will get 3ft

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:25 pm

Frank I keep trying to stay patient. I said I wouldn't get sucked in until Tuesday night. What do you think? Wait another 24 hours or get excited now?

by **RJB8525** Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:27 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Frank I keep trying to stay patient. I said I wouldn't get sucked in until Tuesday night. What do you think? Wait another 24 hours or get excited now?

i'm still trying to hold on but i don't think i can anymore lol getting too exciting

by **oldtimer** Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:33 pm

I'm getting pains in my chest Cant we take this 6" at a time? Mugs you are a real trip m&m s

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:34 pm

i know how you guys feel i am constantly checking the models and the board i dont think we are not going get to much sleep this week but who cares we got beast coming cheers

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:35 pm

Snowfall wrote:Some places in jersey will get 3ft

hopefully cnj coast I got that feeling

by nnjwxguy78 Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:36 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Frank I keep trying to stay patient. I said I wouldn't get sucked in until Tuesday night. What do you think? Wait another 24 hours or get excited now?

well, I'm looking at it this way (but i'm not Frank!):

A couple of weeks ago, it looked like winter was dead. Now it looks like an amazing storm is coming. Most likely we get something, but sure, lots can still go wrong...but we are so much closer than we were even a week ago! I'm waiting until all the energy sampled is onshore...late tomorrow/early wednesday. hope that helps your nerves =)

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:40 pm

nnjwxguy78 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Frank I keep trying to stay patient. I said I wouldn't get sucked in until Tuesday night. What do you think? Wait another 24 hours or get excited now?

well, I'm looking at it this way (but i'm not Frank!):

A couple of weeks ago, it looked like winter was dead. Now it looks like an amazing storm is coming. Most likely we get something, but sure, lots can still go wrong...but we are so much closer than we were even a week ago! I'm waiting until all the energy sampled is onshore...late tomorrow/early wednesday. hope that helps your nerves =)

Great post Im thinking the same better sampling by tomorrow. I had asked earlier if any recon has been sent into the storm but no answers

by **snow247** Mon Jan 18, 2016 5:01 pm

18z GFS looking good so far. Looks the same as 12z.

by **snow247** Mon Jan 18, 2016 5:03 pm

by Biggin23 Mon Jan 18, 2016 5:03 pm

Looks even stronger if that is possible

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