01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

Winds probably near 70 mph

Jeez

https://2img.net/h/oi67.tinypic.com/4gqclu.jpg

I have never seen this from NWS this early they think this shit is real for this to be posted

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY AND THOSE WITH
TRAVEL-OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE DELMARVA, EASTERN PA AND NJ SHOULD
THINK ABOUT CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR ADVERSE WINTER WX. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING A
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS
25 TO 40 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.

DETERMINISTIC DETAILS ARE IN THE FORECAST, BUT TIMING HEAVIEST
PCPN, AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AND THE AMOUNTS, AS WELL AS THE RAIN
SNOW LINE STILL REMAIN WITH A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES. THIS
MESSAGE ONLY SERVES NOTICE THAT A POTENT EVENT LOOMS AND THOUGHT
SHOULD BE GIVEN AS TO MITIGATING ACTIONS SHOULD OUR FORECAST
REMAIN SIMILARLY ADVERSE WHEN ISSUED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WE DO NOT POST SNOW ACCUMULATION GRAPHICS AND SNOW PROBABILITIES
ON OUR WINTER WEATHER PAGE BEYOND 72 HOURS. HOWEVER, WPC HAD A 50
TO 70 PCT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF MELTED WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

Wow NWS is harping early.

The energy is still over the central Pacific. Lots can change still. Tomorrow is another day.

Never seen them go all out like this so early. Wow.

Well I'm not sure when else I've seen such model consistency in regard to a beast of a storm 5 days out. Maybe '93?

R. Maue, again on Twitter: "Moisture, tropopause dynamics and low pressure for potential massive snowstorm/blizzard Fri-Sat ... #crippling"

Frank_Wx wrote:The energy is still over the central Pacific. Lots can change still. Tomorrow is another day.

Thanks WPC for point out where Hawaii is.  I would have never guessed

Frank how are you ? Are temps going to be an issue for this storm I see channel 7 at 37 degrees

I must say, I'm rather disappointed lol

rb924119 wrote:I must say, I'm rather disappointed lol

Rb I will sick DOC on you!!Jet streak you are talking about in your post is going to be unbelievable at 250 - sick.

algae888 wrote:

I'v seen the GFS do some pretty outrageous things in my life.........pretty safe to say that THIS BY FAR TAKES THE CAKE lmfao 41" of snow?!!! That's 1888 material and the stuff dreams are made of lmfaoooo

I am a little concerned about the 850 line creeping West

Here's the Canadian with a different ratio:

More sensible lol

Yes mugs sorry am out yes am following can't temper excitementr winds omg b word to extreme. Euro plz frankzilla!

Anyone know where the UKMET stands? It's supposedly the 2nd most reliable model as of late.

amugs wrote:Snow maps are going be siiiiiccckkk!! PA sees 40" plus in some spots

.
Mug's, WOW that sounds good to me, but I don't want to get to excited because it's still 5 days away.

With a storm this insane there will be no temp issues at least not nyc area. The wind will b worse than qe evwr sern with a sbowstorm . Omg I'm beyond words. This is all I want anything after this is icing. Plz verify! The consistency and input of major Mets at 5 days is amazing. I can't wait for wed. Something tells me this is not going to change it will be a roid at least. OK let's say Godzilla at least but I'm optimistic.

Hey its not 10 not even 7 this is gonna rock or worlds.

Ensembles are out for the GFS. Mean MSLP is not great, BUT looking at the spaghettis tells a very different tale. Looks to me that the OP might actually be gaining credibility with respect to its own ensemble. Take notice of how many members are more in line with the OP than the mean, which is being skewed by outliers:













Based on these looks alone, I expect some pretty drastic westward shifts with respect to the GFS ensemble means in future runs IF the clustering holds.

Rb, what would a westward shift mean ?

Artechmetals wrote:Rb, what would a westward shift mean ?

With regard to the mean........a track much more similar to that of the Operational's. Tighter to the coast, and more snow than what the ensemble mean is currently suggesting.

rb924119 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

I'v seen the GFS do some pretty outrageous things in my life.........pretty safe to say that THIS BY FAR TAKES THE CAKE lmfao 41" of snow?!!! That's 1888 material and the stuff dreams are made of lmfaoooo

RB my man. For the 1993 Superstorm my parents about 1 hour nw of you in Fishkill received 38" and Syracuse NY 41". I will not let myself believe what I am seeing until Tuesday Nights EURO....... But I did get excited when I saw 3 pages of posts in the last hour!!!!

Frank If and I repeat If this forecast holds I say last minute get-together.

If anyone is still up, Euro is rolling. Will update.

Looking good so far out to 57.

Hour 63 almost closed over the NW. GFS did the same thing.