01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

rb924119 wrote:Here's my First Call ladies and gents:



I'm not going to give an in-depth explanation, as I'm sure Frank will do so later tonight, but if you want me to just let me know. Anyway, I did not feel confident enough to 1) bring some of the higher totals through the Philadelphia region and into parts of central New Jersey, and 2) designate a region for greater than 18". I'm sure there will be localized spots that see more than that, but based on what I'm seeing I don't feel like those values will be common enough to warrant denotation. For anybody that this map angers (including myself), I sincerely apologize.

jake732 wrote:bernie rayno is friekin king!!!

snow247 wrote:Bernie Rayno doing a live chat, just said he thinks this will continue to trend well north, starting with the Euro tonight.

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:GEFS more north and wetter. 1 inch of QPF for NYC with more on the south shore of NYC ( Queens, Brooklyn, SI.)

maps what about bx and southern westchester?

Snow88 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:GEFS more north and wetter. 1 inch of QPF for NYC with more on the south shore of NYC ( Queens, Brooklyn, SI.)

maps what about bx and southern westchester?

1QPF

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Here's my First Call ladies and gents:



I'm not going to give an in-depth explanation, as I'm sure Frank will do so later tonight, but if you want me to just let me know. Anyway, I did not feel confident enough to 1) bring some of the higher totals through the Philadelphia region and into parts of central New Jersey, and 2) designate a region for greater than 18". I'm sure there will be localized spots that see more than that, but based on what I'm seeing I don't feel like those values will be common enough to warrant denotation. For anybody that this map angers (including myself), I sincerely apologize.

OUCH!!! :-/

jmanley32 wrote:What was his reasoning. Is he Wishcasting?  What was his science behind it.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

snow247 wrote:

jake732 wrote: ‏@NEweatherHQ  
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Brave call by whoever that is.

Obviously someone that knows nothing about forecasting. But how I wish they were somehow right.

• Storms usually exit on the same latitude that they entered.
  
• Coastal storms don't normally head dead East Southeast all of a sudden out of nowhere and for no reason. Most Mets agree that this simply doesn't make sense.
  
• There is still a good amount of room for the storm to move North, there isn't nearly enough nearby blocking it from doing so.
  
• The ocean waters are very, very warm still which will drop the pressure of this storm much more than what the models suggest and most likely bomb it out.
  

kaos00723 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

snow247 wrote:

jake732 wrote: ‏@NEweatherHQ  
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Brave call by whoever that is.

Obviously someone that knows nothing about forecasting. But how I wish they were somehow right.

No offense to anyone here but most of you aren't good at actual forecasting either. Reading models and maps maybe, but forecasting, not really.

You need to take common sense and decades of weather knowledge into consideration when forecasting weather, not just what guidance tells you.

Common sense tells us this:

• Storms usually exit on the same latitude that they entered.
  
• Coastal storms don't normally head dead East Southeast all of a sudden out of nowhere and for no reason. Most Mets agree that this simply doesn't make sense.
  
• There is still a good amount of room for the storm to move North, there isn't nearly enough nearby blocking it from doing so.
  
• The ocean waters are very, very warm still which will drop the pressure of this storm much more than what the models suggest and most likely bomb it out.
  

Of course none of this could happen and the Euro has been correct all along. That's why Meteorologists like Bernie Sanders make the big bucks and stick to their original forecast from the start without freaking out about every little shift in the models. Accuweather has been consistent on this storm from the start and will make their final determinations by tomorrow evening which is what everyone else should be doing for a storm like this. You really have no idea what's going to happen until it happens like so many times before. It's fun to see what the models are doing and trying to determine what this thing is going to do but in the end common sense tells us that the models are probably having some minor difficulties with the track of this storm once it hits the warm Atlantic waters and anything can happen come Saturday morning. Either way it's best to prepare for snow and/or power outages regardless of what's going to happen.

frank 638 wrote:i was watching 3 meteorologist and the one i trust is nick gregory because he nailed the blizzard of 96 and 03 and 09
nick gregory has 7 to 12 for nyc and parts of long island and 4 to 7 north and east
lonnie quinn has 4 to 7 for nyc long island and parts of westchester and 2 to4 for north and east
news 12 i dont know why 3 to 6 for everyone

frank 638 wrote:i was watching 3 meteorologist and the one i trust is nick gregory because he nailed the blizzard of 96 and 03 and 09
nick gregory has 7 to 12 for nyc and parts of long island and 4 to 7 north and east
lonnie quinn has 4 to 7 for nyc long island and parts of westchester and 2 to4 for north and east
news 12 i dont know why 3 to 6 for everyone