February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
+31
Mathgod55
snowday111
Quietace
jimv45
WeatherJeff1224
devsman
snow247
Math23x7
docstox12
Grselig
GreyBeard
Joe Snow
oldtimer
Snow88
nutleyblizzard
essexcountypete
hyde345
NjWeatherGuy
CPcantmeasuresnow
SNOW MAN
algae888
skinsfan1177
SoulSingMG
amugs
jmanley32
sroc4
Dunnzoo
frank 638
billg315
weatherwatchermom
Frank_Wx
35 posters
Page 6 of 16
Page 6 of 16 • 1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 11 ... 16
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
GFS has snow from Monday to Thursday. Gives most of us 2-5 inches, a bit more N & W.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 2417
Join date : 2014-08-27
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
I got snow in my forecast from Sunday - Friday lol
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Brooklyn&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=40.6498&lon=-73.9488#.VrV7f0-gvlY
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Brooklyn&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=40.6498&lon=-73.9488#.VrV7f0-gvlY
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Join date : 2013-01-09
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
CMC has a brush with the first coastal now, may have to watch for more signicifant interaction, trend could be real
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
I'm hearing the UKIE is west.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1952
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
A. 2 to 5 inches in 4 days is a joke. Don't even pay attention. You could get that in 1 hour under the right circumstances
B. Northwest trend all winter. Get fired up
B. Northwest trend all winter. Get fired up
Guest- Guest
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Anything on the Euro
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1103
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 78
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
OTS.oldtimer wrote:Anything on the Euro
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Not good Soul Such a crazy outlook Can't remember chance of snow 4 days and 3-4 inches
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1103
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 78
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Yeah, definitely would've liked to see 00z guidance grab ahold of something butttttt as we've seen the last couple weeks, patience can pay off. ;-)Toldtimer wrote:Not good Soul Such a crazy outlook Can't remember chance of snow 4 days and 3-4 inches
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
6Z NAM needs a jog west about 100 miles and we get clobbered even in the HV, which makes that 100 mile jog west seem unlikely because this is not the year we get clobbered. We've seen moves greater than that within 60 hours this year though so it stills bear watching.
The next GFS should be interesting.
The next GFS should be interesting.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
All local Mets in my area and Philly are saying the first storm will miss us completely. The second one would only give us light snow showers Monday night into Tuesday morning. But they said the second one would have to be watched. The station in my area said that second one would produce an accumulating snow from Monday night into the day on Tuesday. I'm really surprised by this because every time we have a snow event they always down play it to only a nuisance.
I'll be anxiously waiting to hear from our team of crack forecasters to see what there thought's are. See you all later.
I'll be anxiously waiting to hear from our team of crack forecasters to see what there thought's are. See you all later.
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1361
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 64
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Seems to be a lot of uncertainty with the 92nd t storm. Hearing some models have ticked it back west. Some it's,some so close. And so on. One thing for sure it's a big and powerful storm.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Well, Inaccuweather probably spot on for my area in the HV ,they say "a little bit" of snow Tuesday and "a few flakes" for Wednesday.I better start preparing for a coating to an inch while the Shore and LI crew gets 8 to 12.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 8507
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Well the 00z's did not do a whole bunch to make me think a nuke will be surprising us for Monday. Models for the most part have a swing and a miss. (Euro ens, Euro Op, Ukie, GFS, GFS Ens, Rgem) I still think eastern most sections, eastern LI and SE CT/The Cape, could see snow showers or light-mod accumulations, because as we have seen with all storms so far this season a NW trend in the end seems to occur. The 4km from last night also trended back east this am, but still has 3-5 over most of LI for Monday. We shall see.
There is a scenario that could pull that system back closer towards the coast via a capture by the incoming trough which if occurred would be reminiscent of a Sandy esque sort of track. The short wave that becomes the Tuesday to Wed threat was just coming ashore overnight. Its this digging s/w that creates the trough that tries to capture the system and either pulls it back closer towards the coast or acts to keep it OTS. This is all dependant on the timing and the tilt of that trough. If the trough stays positive to neutral we get OTS to glancing blow. If the trough trends neutral to neg quicker then we will see glancing blow to more significant impacts.
12z today both pieces will be fully sampled. The window for any major changes has but a mere crack left before is officially closed. Many would have the window closed already, but because the Monday storm is so powerful and the tendencies this season is to trend NW inside 24-48hrs it def still bars watching.
Wave 2's impacts will be determined by what wave 1 ends up doing, and how wave 3 behaves behind it. Wave three will really amplify the ridge quite impressively in the west.
Some things Im keying in on:
1) as you can see in the image below there is a ton of energy associated with the incoming trough and wave 2. Right now the models have it all strung out throughout the trough: Id like to see the models begin to consolidate some of it towards the base of the trough (smaller circles and arrows).
2) Wave spacing and positioning between Wave 1 and Wave 2 will play a role in how the Tuesday Wed system unfolds. The current solns on the positioning of Wave 1 relative to when the surface LP is redeveloping off the Va/Delmarva coast in response to to wave 2 energy I think is leading to an area of subsidence between the two systems and/or the models are having a hard time figuring where to focus the energy leading to what appears to be a relatively light event despite a surface LP of sub 990 at or just inside the BM. Notice above I've drawn two arrows over wave 1. If wave 1 trends further OTS it helps us, but I also think a track closer to the coast and further north does as well because both shifts the area of subsidence and allows the redeveloping surface LP to draw from the Atlantic and organize its precip shield better.
I think we start to see shifts in the modeling, starting today at 12z now that we have full sampling, in how the energy is handled embedded in the wave 2 trough, and final trends, with wave 1's track. We shall see
There is a scenario that could pull that system back closer towards the coast via a capture by the incoming trough which if occurred would be reminiscent of a Sandy esque sort of track. The short wave that becomes the Tuesday to Wed threat was just coming ashore overnight. Its this digging s/w that creates the trough that tries to capture the system and either pulls it back closer towards the coast or acts to keep it OTS. This is all dependant on the timing and the tilt of that trough. If the trough stays positive to neutral we get OTS to glancing blow. If the trough trends neutral to neg quicker then we will see glancing blow to more significant impacts.
12z today both pieces will be fully sampled. The window for any major changes has but a mere crack left before is officially closed. Many would have the window closed already, but because the Monday storm is so powerful and the tendencies this season is to trend NW inside 24-48hrs it def still bars watching.
Wave 2's impacts will be determined by what wave 1 ends up doing, and how wave 3 behaves behind it. Wave three will really amplify the ridge quite impressively in the west.
Some things Im keying in on:
1) as you can see in the image below there is a ton of energy associated with the incoming trough and wave 2. Right now the models have it all strung out throughout the trough: Id like to see the models begin to consolidate some of it towards the base of the trough (smaller circles and arrows).
2) Wave spacing and positioning between Wave 1 and Wave 2 will play a role in how the Tuesday Wed system unfolds. The current solns on the positioning of Wave 1 relative to when the surface LP is redeveloping off the Va/Delmarva coast in response to to wave 2 energy I think is leading to an area of subsidence between the two systems and/or the models are having a hard time figuring where to focus the energy leading to what appears to be a relatively light event despite a surface LP of sub 990 at or just inside the BM. Notice above I've drawn two arrows over wave 1. If wave 1 trends further OTS it helps us, but I also think a track closer to the coast and further north does as well because both shifts the area of subsidence and allows the redeveloping surface LP to draw from the Atlantic and organize its precip shield better.
I think we start to see shifts in the modeling, starting today at 12z now that we have full sampling, in how the energy is handled embedded in the wave 2 trough, and final trends, with wave 1's track. We shall see
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8331
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Nice piece Doc. And the SREFS continue holding serve. Big 12z runs today.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
You can see the spin of wave 2 in eastern Texas moving in a due east direction
.
.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Nice write up sroc so as of right now coastal areas are looking at minimal to moderate impacts with possibility of higher impacts of their is a capture.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
BIG 12 z runs today for this - if they hint at a nw trend they it could very well be game on NAM is up now!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Looking at wave 2 develop in the Atlantic on the models, if that thing hit us, it would make Jonas look like yesterday's snows. It is a monster of a storm,
devsman- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 424
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 48
Location : merrick, ny (south shore of Long Island)
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
NAM actually looks east of 06z. Pretty sure we can shut the door on wave 2. There's simply no spacing and the H5 low is embedded too far south and east. Nowhere near the same position as Jonas. Wave 3 is going to be extremely difficult to predict.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
The relative humidity field is more expansive on the 12z NAM than 06z, and the low position is the same or slightly east. But because the precip field is more expansive it still manages to get snow as far west as NJ. Impressive.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
what a tease my god!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Seeing such a Roidzilla in the ocean saddens me. We'll only feel it's effects of the outer most bands.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
A 50-75 mile west shift will do us good - i think we can get it - positive juju
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Remember we still have some time left for this puppy though the window of this is shrinking with this winter trend never give up
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Page 6 of 16 • 1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 11 ... 16
Page 6 of 16
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|