February 22nd Snow Possible

Mugsy. Your appetizer for the main event looks like some light rain setting the stage for heavy rain later on. Hope the models are wrong. You are definitely the king of optimism, but in late February now with 3 weeks to go, it looks like the glass is 90% empty or in your case 10% full

The 18z NAM shows Mondays wave being amplified. And most of the precip falls in the overnight hours. Fantastic run, probably 3-6" for most with maybe 8" in parts of NNJ

Wow that has a nice strip of moderate snow right over me for majority of the run.

Frank, the simulated radar and snow map show all rain?!

So does the wrf. Are the models in error? Or are we missing something here?

Most likely a warm nose beneath 850 melts it before it reaches the surface. Check soundings.

Yup, that's exactly what it is. At 00z on Sunday night the column is above freezing from about 835 hPa to the surface. It's not until after at least 06z that snow even becomes a remote possibility, but the ground will still be too warm, especially with surface temps in the lower to mid-30s.

Surface temps are bad

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html#picture

CMC is basically all rain, but usually has a warm bias, still, not too hyped about this due to temp profiles.

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snow-ice-and-rain-to-cause-maj

Bernie Rayno today...

I love Bernie. So enthusiastic and clear.

weatherwatchermom wrote:http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snow-ice-and-rain-to-cause-maj

Bernie Rayno today...

If you haven't watched..HV guys and gals should.

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snow-ice-and-rain-to-cause-maj

Bernie Rayno today...

If you haven't watched..HV guys and gals should.  

I watched his video and I wasn't sure if my area (EPA) would be rain/snow or a mix. It seemed like he felt that from Harrisburg PA. west would be hit the hardest as it stands right now. I know things will change though.

The tulips are coming up in midtown manhattan you know what that means springtime in new york city....

Just saw the forecast from several TV Mets for next weeks storm. At the moment it's not looking good for our area. The Capper was the NWS says there's a 40%-50% chance that temps for March will be above normal.
 Please tell me we till have a chance to get one more decent snow event this season. Otherwise I'm going to have to say a line from one of my favorite movies. "It's over Johnny" and he reply's "nothing is over". I'm hoping he's right. UGH !

Looks dismal. Sunday night now light rain and next week is a mix at best, mostly rain.

Closing this thread. Clipper looks like it will stay south of the area. And if there is precip, it'll likely fall in the form of rain. BL temps are too warm.