Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[weatherwatchermom]

Signed up for my spring classes. I am taking Advanced GIS, Thermo, a Gen Ed, Scientific Writing and 2 credits of Undergraduate Research with my advisor(Chosing a topic in Tropical Met). Not bad. One year left!

can't believe how fast time is going...good luck with those classes!!

[weatherwatchermom]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ww0oMksoRhQ

4 years ago today.. interesting documentary

[Dunnzoo]

Finally got my weather station back online with WU! AcuRite did a firmware upgrade and had problems getting everyone updated. I was down a month, what a mess!

[sroc4]

Cool GIF of Matthew posted by Joe Daleo:

[dkodgis]

Out of curiosity, could someone please give me a summary in a few sentences why Boston cashed in on the snow jackpot a few years ago? My son asked me what conditions joined hands to bring so much snow and I could not answer him. It was cold, there was moisture, snow fell alot but why so out of the ordinary? With Buffalo, lake effect. With Boston, what happened that year a few years ago?

[Frank_Wx]

Out of curiosity, could someone please give me a summary in a few sentences why Boston cashed in on the snow jackpot a few years ago? My son asked me what conditions joined hands to bring so much snow and I could not answer him. It was cold, there was moisture, snow fell alot but why so out of the ordinary? With Buffalo, lake effect. With Boston, what happened that year a few years ago?

East-based blocking over Scandinavia if I recall correctly. Pattern favored coastal storm development over Boston's latitude. Long Island had a good winter that year too I think. There was an active northern jet bringing frequent waves of low pressure and arctic air.

[Guest]

Out of curiosity, could someone please give me a summary in a few sentences why Boston cashed in on the snow jackpot a few years ago? My son asked me what conditions joined hands to bring so much snow and I could not answer him. It was cold, there was moisture, snow fell alot but why so out of the ordinary? With Buffalo, lake effect. With Boston, what happened that year a few years ago?

East-based blocking over Scandinavia if I recall correctly. Pattern favored coastal storm development over Boston's latitude. Long Island had a good winter that year too I think. There was an active northern jet bringing frequent waves of low pressure and arctic air.

Kind of like we're expecting this year Frank no? Maybe just maybe we have a repeat.

[Frank_Wx]

Out of curiosity, could someone please give me a summary in a few sentences why Boston cashed in on the snow jackpot a few years ago? My son asked me what conditions joined hands to bring so much snow and I could not answer him. It was cold, there was moisture, snow fell alot but why so out of the ordinary? With Buffalo, lake effect. With Boston, what happened that year a few years ago?

East-based blocking over Scandinavia if I recall correctly. Pattern favored coastal storm development over Boston's latitude. Long Island had a good winter that year too I think. There was an active northern jet bringing frequent waves of low pressure and arctic air.

Kind of like we're expecting this year Frank no?  Maybe just maybe we have a repeat.

Development of blocking, or a -NAO, will not be known for a bit.

[sroc4]

I hate it when we have to wait for crap to start happening.

[algae888]

Todays gfs ensembles are so different than last nights that all i can do is laugh. I can't post them on my cell but I hope this doesn't happen throughout the winter

[sroc4]

Todays gfs ensembles are so different than last nights that all i can do is laugh. I can't post them on my cell but I hope this doesn't happen throughout the winter

Here you go Al. Im following two time frames right now. Nov 10th and Nov 17th. As we get a little closer I am going to do a write up on the evolution of what we saw 5 days ago vs what we are seeing now vs what we will see in the next 3-5days for those time frames. Im also following along with the MJO forecasts. So far they havent changed much so my hope is that the ensembles are simply waffling or lost on where the main fautures of the 500mb pattern will end up. What I think we are seeing is the model having a hard time figuring out where the trough wants to be. What I think will happen in time is the negative over the SW cont to back up into the SE Pac; whereas, a second trough conts to deepen and focus into the E/SE with a ridge in between. But I never take the LR pattern at face value. It always seems to evolve as we get closer, for better or worse.

[Frank_Wx]

November 21st according to the GFS

Shift this 150 miles east please

[skinsfan1177]

I wasn't sure where to put this but can anyone give me a forecast for Kissimmee Florida we out going on a family trip from November 11-185th hoping for great weather.

[amugs]

I have to admit the Models totally rushed the flip to a below normal pattern for the end of Nov. Teh ENS wwere harping on a BN regime with trough atfer trough setting up in the East. JB was harping on tis as well as Ed V, Mike V, DT, Cohen etc. The darn Nino type of PAC firehouse is just ridiculous right now and we have a bunch of vortexes (Storms) pounding our warm gblob in the GOA. The cold air is locked up on the other side of the globe. Just incredible how the PAC has been on roids for 18 months basically and teh fear is once we lock into a pattern as such in last for sometime. PAC firehose needs to be cut off and even teh recurving typhoon could not shut it down with a neutral/low  end Nina state. To say a bit confused is an understatement at this time.
There are changes at the 500 level so far so time will tell its only Nov 9th right?
We need a good snowpack to for up in Canada and Northern tier of USA for the cold air source build - right now we have lost a great amount of this by the latest figures/data and JB video of the snowpack is off that he shows in todays video it isnt teh end of OCt it is creeping up on teh middle of Nov now and teh snowpack is lessening due to the flood of warm pac air up there.





Shoul db the opposite at this time of year

[sroc4]

I have to admit the Models totally rushed the flip to a below normal pattern for the end of Nov. Teh ENS wwere harping on a BN regime with trough atfer trough setting up in the East. JB was harping on tis as well as Ed V, Mike V, DT, Cohen etc. The darn Nino type of PAC firehouse is just ridiculous right now and we have a bunch of vortexes (Storms) pounding our warm gblob in the GOA. The cold air is locked up on the other side of the globe. Just incredible how the PAC has been on roids for 18 months basically and teh fear is once we lock into a pattern as such in last for sometime. PAC firehose needs to be cut off and even teh recurving typhoon could not shut it down with a neutral/low  end Nina state. To say a bit confused is an understatement at this time.
There are changes at the 500 level so far so time will tell its only Nov 9th right?
We need a good snowpack to for up in Canada and Northern tier of USA for the cold air source build - right now we have lost a great amount of this by the latest figures/data and JB video of the snowpack is off that he shows in todays video it isnt teh end of OCt it is creeping up on teh middle of Nov now and teh snowpack is lessening due to the flood of warm pac air up there.





Shoul db the opposite at this time of year

Mugs why do you say Nino fire hose?  Where is this coming from?  Because I dont think I agree with this at all.  The atmosphere was behaving lik a weak. Niña before the SSWE with trop forcing and walker cell transporting trop heat/energy poleward. The SSWE def influenced the trop but because the main piece of the split drifted over Asia which contributed to the exceptional cold seen there. Now the strat is consolidating again but remains weak. This was an unprecedented SSWE that no one really knew how it would behave. Bottom line with respect to NA the position of the strat split played a role. That said the The MJO pulse came out of the COD around 4/5 but is propagating eastward and is currently in 6/7 but the pulse is a moderate one headed toward 8-1.  LR modeling is ALWAYS EVOLVING. I would not buy into what the LR modeling is showing right now. I would pause and give it a little time before I give in. A true pattern flip was never on the table IMO but the fundamental change to the 500 pattern that had developed between August and Oct is def occurring.  I can prove it.

[amugs]

Scott on the Pac Jet extension at 250 if you look runs from wpac right through into the NA cont in BC region. We have a nino hangover and it is waning after a super nino. I showed this in posts and a research link in Sept. I have to dig this up if need be. MJO progged to go into 7-8-1 yes and we have  a pattern change evolving  I have written about this as well  My point being g that we need this Pac Jet firehouse extension to slow down so we can get cold to rebuild in CAN and snow pack up there a well for  an extension of a cold air pool besides Siberia imo. Mechanism not in place presently to slow this down , does MJO help, I believe so but need heights to rise by the GOA LP to retrograde or dissolve. From what I have read as well the AAM is still in a mod positive state which aids to the PAC jet extension and is orogged to go nutral/negative in about a 10 days. Also mountain torque from Asia is ina pos state aiding to this full extension.from what I have read. Could I be wrong surely, ain't being a nah nah hee just stating some weather info.

[amugs]

From another board:

Unprecedented complete Pacific warming event beginning in the summer of 2013 culminating with the extreme super Nino and +PDO and +NPM in recent winters.

How do the models handle this residual Nino forcing which is still evident as this La Nina is beginning to take shape?

The Pacific pattern this October with the Nino-like record Alaskan ridge getting undercut by the Nina Pacific Jet and displaced Aleutian Low to the PAC NW

producing the wettest month on record for Spokane, WA.



2) Record low sea ice in the Arctic along with record extreme warmth and 500 mb and -AO blocking producing near record snow and cold over Eurasia.

Resulting pattern for October into the first half of November is North America getting flooded by mild Pacific air.

This needs to change



SO far - that GOA Low needs to move SW not South and pull those heights along with it

[Frank_Wx]

Nashville has been incredible. Great vibe in this city. Good people, music, and weather. I'll be back Saturday. Hope all is well.

[sroc4]

Nashville has been incredible. Great vibe in this city. Good people, music, and weather. I'll be back Saturday. Hope all is well.  

How is the food. Any good restaurant recommendations? Its sunny outside

[Frank_Wx]

Guys!

My flight is delayed to Newark. Is is windy there?

[Math23x7]

Guys!

My flight is delayed to Newark. Is is windy there?

As of 2:51 PM EST, winds are sustained from the northwest at 29 mph with gusts of 38 mph. With the next update in about 10 minutes, it should be around the same.

[Frank_Wx]

I have a good feeling about our N&W friends this winter. Not saying this GFS long range snowstorm will come to fruition, but the general feel is models are showing good storm track for you guys so far.

[Frank_Wx]

I got a little post happy tonight. Lots to look at this time of year. Digest the info and let me know if you have any questions. After traveling last week I have some catching up to do at work, but slower times are ahead in December.

[Dunnzoo]

Woohoooo! soon folks, soon!

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES-R-Launch

[frank 638]

Let it snow let it snow looks like we are heading into a good direction

[algae888]

18z gfs fantasy snow map.

16" of snow right over CP house. CP start adding up your digital snowfall for this year.

[jmanley32]

Full 240hrs snowfall hummina!! B/godzilla word just to the NW and in new england and I will be in CT right around the 5-10 inch area, that is IF this came to fruition, as Al said fantasyland for now.  Def signs of some sort of storm for turkey day weekend though!

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