January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:14 pm

I wish you all well
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by track17 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:14 pm

I just don't get high wind gusts as a big deal we see that all the time. Also these models always say winds gust up to 60 then you hardly see a 40 gust. This is nothing the jersey shore needs to blink an eye at. We see these things all the time

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:16 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Tell me that's not damaging
oh tgats white damaging alright jeeze.[/quot

oh boy that would be damaging I am in that lavender color...not good if that comes to fruition...that would put us over 80 mph...during that time frame
those are upper air winds though much will mix down 80 mph probably wont.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:25 pm

Wonder where rb went and he never explained what he was looking for in the 12z runs. Some like to track all storms some don't and that's cool.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:05 pm

A SYO AND TRACK this is s NOT a meh storm for u or  many if not all on this board. 35-40mph sustained winds with 60 mph plus gusts to possibly hcane force which are not out of the realm are NOT MEH. Also those knots maps at 850 will mix down and take knots and multiply by 1.3 to get mph. Will you lose some strength yes but not a lot at minimum take 80% of that.
On another board we have pro mets there saying how this is going to be an impactful and serious storm. 
Looking at the 25 tornados in the south is an indication of how dynamic and serious this storm is now. 
If u don't agree fine but PLEASE do not downplay this storm at this time. Even NWS is starting to harp

Janet awesome job with the soundings and they are going to trend colder imwo!!

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by devsman on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:10 pm

I also don't remember the NWS making a big deal about the march 2010 storm and I lost power for 2 days and trees were down all over the place. I can't really understand how some want to downplay how much damage high winds can create Just because we are not dealing with a blizzard.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:14 pm

amugs wrote:A SYO AND TRACK this is s NOT a meh storm for u or  many if not all on this board. 35-40mph sustained winds with 60 mph plus gusts to possibly hcane force which are not out of the realm are NOT MEH. Also those knots maps at 850 will mix down and take knots and multiply by 1.3 to get mph. Will you lose some strength yes but not a lot at minimum take 80% of that.
On another board we have pro mets there saying how this is going to be an impactful and serious storm. 
Looking at the 25 tornados in the south is an indication of how dynamic and serious this storm is now. 
If u don't agree fine but PLEASE do not downplay this storm at this time. Even NWS is starting to harp

Janet awesome job with the soundings and they are going to trend colder imwo!!

My man, yes totally agree, and 00z NAM is coming in deeper! Out to hr 33.  Looks more well defined too. You really think 80% of 850mb winds will mix to the surface? That doesn't happen too often. If so thats serious.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:16 pm

Winds are more intense than 18z so far hr 36, precip hasnt even gotten in yet.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Joe Snow on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:27 pm

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:28 pm

If mugs is right and 850s do mix down NAM has bullseye over NYC of about 75-80kts sustained, its actually multiplied by 1.15 for kts to mph and take 80% thats 72mph sustained, I do not buy that but it would be crazy if that indeed happened, thats def not meh. even inland a decent amount.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:32 pm

I fully expect those numbers to go up in the morning briefing they are planning, NAM is coming in very intense with 925mb winds even reaching 75+ knots sustained. And lookie here, maybe its sleet but wow.

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:35 pm

NAM 850mb winds, if what mugs says is true this is a whole new ballgame in terms of winds. Also as posted above are we looking at more frozen precip?



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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:45 pm

sroc4 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
amugs wrote:Peeps,

This LP/storm si over performing as we speak in the deep south with great convection and Tornadoes all over Miss and Bama.

Joe B still harping on 1-3" for NYC Metro and 3-6 in N & W areas with 6" plus in the Poc and further west and North.

Says once the storm pulls east the column cold and temps crash all the way to the coast.

Check out these 850's temps - this would be an absolute paste job for Northern and western peeps and sleet as well



Get your generators ready and follow the hi res models and sr now forget the globals after seeing all teh deep convection and torm popping up in teh south they don't handle these types of storms well

Mugsy, NWS not buying JB's analysis at all, just pure rain up by me for the whole event.

Doc here is JB's thinking on why:  Its actually quite an interesting read.  

The tornadoes and severe weather in Mississippi are a sign that a front running impulse is coming out. That impulse is going to carve the path for this low to move along. The Euro wants it over Chesapeake bay for instance, and then the primary goes toward it. I think its likely to be off the Delmarva by tomorrow night, and that is where the big low winds up on Monday. Now consider this. Its so warm it cant get any warmer. What do I mean by that? Well all the warm air for the system is already on the playing field. Because winds are mainly west in the southern sector of the storm, there is no transport of warmer air into the center as it moves east. Instead the cooler air cmes flying in underneath and as the center moves further northeast, it starts drawing cooling are into it from the northeast . The front running system causing those tornadoes is HUGE in this for this should get off the mid atlantic coast tomorrow and when it does, establish the path for the primary center, after it moves up into WVA, to move along.

Look at the GFS 1 pm Monday




The warm air that is around now has gone into developing the storm as heights fall over it, but there is no warm inflow. The air mass to the northeast is low level cold air, Its why the new HIRES NAM is cooling this so dramatically, its seeing all this.

Hr 48



54



60



I think it has too much snow from NYC to BOS at this time



and too little back in central Pa simply because of the ideas I have analogged this too ( 3 storms that were warm that turned into big interior snows as centers drew cold air in, and precip processes cooled the air, late March 1984, Dec 1992, late March 1984). The warm advection leads to strong upward motion. Saturated air that may be 38 degrees at NYC is lifted and that can cool quite a bit, Meanwhile he sounding turns Isothermal and a bunch of people start turning over to snow west of the track to the upper low. as soon as the warm advectiion cuts off, which should be Monday as all the cooling gets around it, a bunch of people start turning over to snow That is the key. So what I do is figure out all the scenarios I see and weight them. Lets look here at State College. If I blend my 3 analogs it comes out to a foot. But suppose I look at modeling, take the average of the Canadian UKMET US models, ensembles and operational. I may have 10 samples I am looking at Now we got 15 with March 84 and Dec 1992 and 9 with the early 93 March storm. That is 39 for a total . the contribution from 7 models is only 7 So lets say there are 7 objective inputs adding up to 7 inches ( 1 each) and then my 3 analogs which tack on another 39 ( 15,15,9) . This gives me 10 tools totaling 46, which is an average of 4.6, hence the forecast of 3-6 put out a couple of days ago. NYC I said 1-3. This is not to get into a fight over either place Its to demonstrate a forecast method where you dont simply go into depression/elation cycles over model. I am trying to teach this to Garrett He flipped out yesterday at the 12z runs cause they were so warm ( I feel his pain, there has not been one major storm that has bullseyed state College since March 1994. We have gotten heavy snows, even had the most in some big storms, but the monsters have all been southeast of us with their maxes since he came into the world. And with the winter being lousy so far, as a snow geek he is upset. I grew up in ACY so any snow I saw when I got here was a dream come true, though we did get lollipopped a few times when I was a kid. and we all know the perverse satisfaction of knowing you had more snow than anyone else) . The time to flip out is Tuesday morning if there is nothing on the ground , not over models. But if you can come up with storm typing, then as the storm gets closer, you can eliminate the options. It may come down to the the biggest options are going to carry the day, it may come down to the opposite, 0 But if you have come up with a balanced figure then you dont worry about it, till you make the final change The storm 2 weekends ago was me trying to show this, The GFS started with nothing. We knew certain paths would yield certain results, so come up with the blend, then dont change it until you are certain of the one option that

Forecasting is not putting out 10 different options before an event. If you change your forecast 9 times, then out of 10 samples you were wrong on 90% of them. And whats more you cant go back and claim a foreacst was right. You can say, that idea was better, but I pulled it off the table. For instance in both December and now January, the ideas issued first beat the idea issued last ( right before the month) but the one that gets scored is the last one out, not the other one. In fact, I have violated my own methodology in some cases reacting to cold that came stronger quicker, but backed away BUT I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THE IDEA of people debating and making forecasts, but I think you cant run to the one that was right. So you try to stick with the product of your work. You will find that the more you put into something to come up with the answer, the better the chance you have of hitting it, and sticking with it, because you have studied the set up so closely,you are ready to pounce on the one that is best once you see it. But its the sum of the picture, and only when sure, do you jump on one aspect. In the winter so far, like the past several winters, it seems the EPO has been the king of the road and the SOI gyrations have been tipping that off around 10 days out. everything then responds to that.

I really think the answer to the forecast questions is not the models, but identifying EVERYTHING you can and then weighting it. The models are simply doing that. Their variance shows that obviously they disagree. So what is needed for the right answer. YOU! I dont care if you dont have a degree or not, if you love the weather and you love getting out there then you should put out your ideas. This is another libertarian rant against those that think its "irresponsible" for untrained guys to be posting forecasts. That is arrogant. I am suggesting a method that I use that you might want to try, sharing what I do. I am also suggesting that there is a philosophy that can make it easier not to swing all over the place when models do or do not go your way

Thank you Doc, for taking the time to post this.I understood a good part of it and I hope there is a chance it does play out for the area.I guess it's gonna be pretty much a nowcast thing soon but in the past, I have seen storms start as rain and gradually change over to snow and drop a large amount.Here's hoping!!!
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
I fully expect those numbers to go up in the morning briefing they are planning, NAM is coming in very intense with 925mb winds even reaching 75+ knots sustained. And lookie here, maybe its sleet but wow.


2 NAM Runs in a row of over an inch of frozen precip in the HV. As you say most of this may be sleet, even some freezing rain but if this verifies, and the NAM is an outlier so far although I personally think it's leading the way here, this is going to make matters much more serious in those areas. Getting anxious to see what the short range models do with this now, I'd discount the next GFS, CMC, Euro and the lot at this point.


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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:51 pm

Update on the 0z NAM soundings:
Teterboro hasn't changed, rain, with snow from 1-4am Tuesday
Albany, sleet starts earlier, 1 pm Monday until 1 am Tuesday
Caldwell went from sleet to snow, but starting later, 1 am -7am Tuesday
White Plains - snow starts earlier, 4 am Tuesday til about 9 am

So, NNJ and White Plains only rain an snow, Albany a lot of sleet. I am sure there will be mixing of all precip types at some point everywhere.

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:55 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Update on the 0z NAM soundings:
    Teterboro hasn't changed, rain, with snow from 1-4am Tuesday
    Albany, sleet starts earlier, 1 pm Monday until 1 am Tuesday
    Caldwell went from sleet to snow, but starting later, 1 am -7am Tuesday
     White Plains - snow starts earlier, 4 am Tuesday til about 9 am

So, NNJ and White Plains only rain an snow, Albany a lot of sleet. I am sure there will be mixing of all precip types at some point everywhere.
I find those soundings odd janet as the model shows snow/ sleet at the onset then rain later on. if you look at the tt maps it has some form of frozen precip from 15z Monday until 00z tues {acc map}then mainly rain.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:57 pm

nam has def ticked colder the last few runs. waiting on rgem
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:58 pm

Guys NAM 4km gets us into the low 30s during the heaviest precip! This is teending colder, can any of the pros chime in here if this is true, the surface temp map shes temos in 30s.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:59 pm

algae888 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Update on the 0z NAM soundings:
    Teterboro hasn't changed, rain, with snow from 1-4am Tuesday
    Albany, sleet starts earlier, 1 pm Monday until 1 am Tuesday
    Caldwell went from sleet to snow, but starting later, 1 am -7am Tuesday
     White Plains - snow starts earlier, 4 am Tuesday til about 9 am

So, NNJ and White Plains only rain an snow, Albany a lot of sleet. I am sure there will be mixing of all precip types at some point everywhere.
I find those soundings odd janet as  the model shows snow/ sleet at the onset then rain later on. if you look at the tt maps it has some form of frozen precip from 15z Monday until 00z tues  {acc map}then mainly rain.

Tuesday> The precip is mainly monday no?
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:00 pm

algae888 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Update on the 0z NAM soundings:
    Teterboro hasn't changed, rain, with snow from 1-4am Tuesday
    Albany, sleet starts earlier, 1 pm Monday until 1 am Tuesday
    Caldwell went from sleet to snow, but starting later, 1 am -7am Tuesday
     White Plains - snow starts earlier, 4 am Tuesday til about 9 am

So, NNJ and White Plains only rain an snow, Albany a lot of sleet. I am sure there will be mixing of all precip types at some point everywhere.
I find those soundings odd janet as  the model shows snow/ sleet at the onset then rain later on. if you look at the tt maps it has some form of frozen precip from 15z Monday until 00z tues  {acc map}then mainly rain.

That's why I was looking at soundings, something didn't seem right to me with those snow/sleet maps. There seems to be an almost consistent warm nose at about 850mb so I wasn't convinced of any frozen precip making it through that layer...

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Update on the 0z NAM soundings:
    Teterboro hasn't changed, rain, with snow from 1-4am Tuesday
    Albany, sleet starts earlier, 1 pm Monday until 1 am Tuesday
    Caldwell went from sleet to snow, but starting later, 1 am -7am Tuesday
     White Plains - snow starts earlier, 4 am Tuesday til about 9 am

So, NNJ and White Plains only rain an snow, Albany a lot of sleet. I am sure there will be mixing of all precip types at some point everywhere.
I find those soundings odd janet as  the model shows snow/ sleet at the onset then rain later on. if you look at the tt maps it has some form of frozen precip from 15z Monday until 00z tues  {acc map}then mainly rain.

Tuesday> The precip is mainly monday no?

Jman, from the soundings, it is all rain until late Monday night or early Tuesday and then turns over to frozen precip

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:01 pm

NAM parallel!

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:03 pm

It can snow at these temps with the dynamics of this storm I think, but dunzoo is do a good job with the soundings which are probably more telling.

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:06 pm

NAM 4km does not even have precip into the area by 11z monday wow.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:09 pm

Take a look at this for White Plains, a short window of snow. Click on the map to get the soundings, enter khpn in the metar, Maybe I'm missing something, but if you toggle the hours, the 850's are warm...

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2017012200&fh=-6&r=conus&dpdt=

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Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

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