January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

devsman wrote:Losing power with 40 degree temps is meh? Ok

syosnow94 wrote:Don't foresee losing power. If I do I have a wood burning stove!!

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Tell me that's not damaging

oh tgats white damaging alright jeeze.[/quot

oh boy that would be damaging I am in that lavender color...not good if that comes to fruition...that would put us over 80 mph...during that time frame

amugs wrote:A SYO AND TRACK this is s NOT a meh storm for u or  many if not all on this board. 35-40mph sustained winds with 60 mph plus gusts to possibly hcane force which are not out of the realm are NOT MEH. Also those knots maps at 850 will mix down and take knots and multiply by 1.3 to get mph. Will you lose some strength yes but not a lot at minimum take 80% of that.
On another board we have pro mets there saying how this is going to be an impactful and serious storm. 
Looking at the 25 tornados in the south is an indication of how dynamic and serious this storm is now. 
If u don't agree fine but PLEASE do not downplay this storm at this time. Even NWS is starting to harp

Janet awesome job with the soundings and they are going to trend colder imwo!!

Joe Snow wrote:And here is the NWS Briefing:

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/CoastalStormBriefing.pdf

sroc4 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

amugs wrote:Peeps,

This LP/storm si over performing as we speak in the deep south with great convection and Tornadoes all over Miss and Bama.

Joe B still harping on 1-3" for NYC Metro and 3-6 in N & W areas with 6" plus in the Poc and further west and North.

Says once the storm pulls east the column cold and temps crash all the way to the coast.

Check out these 850's temps - this would be an absolute paste job for Northern and western peeps and sleet as well



Get your generators ready and follow the hi res models and sr now forget the globals after seeing all teh deep convection and torm popping up in teh south they don't handle these types of storms well

Mugsy, NWS not buying JB's analysis at all, just pure rain up by me for the whole event.

Doc here is JB's thinking on why:  Its actually quite an interesting read.  

The tornadoes and severe weather in Mississippi are a sign that a front running impulse is coming out. That impulse is going to carve the path for this low to move along. The Euro wants it over Chesapeake bay for instance, and then the primary goes toward it. I think its likely to be off the Delmarva by tomorrow night, and that is where the big low winds up on Monday. Now consider this. Its so warm it cant get any warmer. What do I mean by that? Well all the warm air for the system is already on the playing field. Because winds are mainly west in the southern sector of the storm, there is no transport of warmer air into the center as it moves east. Instead the cooler air cmes flying in underneath and as the center moves further northeast, it starts drawing cooling are into it from the northeast . The front running system causing those tornadoes is HUGE in this for this should get off the mid atlantic coast tomorrow and when it does, establish the path for the primary center, after it moves up into WVA, to move along.

Look at the GFS 1 pm Monday




The warm air that is around now has gone into developing the storm as heights fall over it, but there is no warm inflow. The air mass to the northeast is low level cold air, Its why the new HIRES NAM is cooling this so dramatically, its seeing all this.

Hr 48



54



60



I think it has too much snow from NYC to BOS at this time



and too little back in central Pa simply because of the ideas I have analogged this too ( 3 storms that were warm that turned into big interior snows as centers drew cold air in, and precip processes cooled the air, late March 1984, Dec 1992, late March 1984). The warm advection leads to strong upward motion. Saturated air that may be 38 degrees at NYC is lifted and that can cool quite a bit, Meanwhile he sounding turns Isothermal and a bunch of people start turning over to snow west of the track to the upper low. as soon as the warm advectiion cuts off, which should be Monday as all the cooling gets around it, a bunch of people start turning over to snow That is the key. So what I do is figure out all the scenarios I see and weight them. Lets look here at State College. If I blend my 3 analogs it comes out to a foot. But suppose I look at modeling, take the average of the Canadian UKMET US models, ensembles and operational. I may have 10 samples I am looking at Now we got 15 with March 84 and Dec 1992 and 9 with the early 93 March storm. That is 39 for a total . the contribution from 7 models is only 7 So lets say there are 7 objective inputs adding up to 7 inches ( 1 each) and then my 3 analogs which tack on another 39 ( 15,15,9) . This gives me 10 tools totaling 46, which is an average of 4.6, hence the forecast of 3-6 put out a couple of days ago. NYC I said 1-3. This is not to get into a fight over either place Its to demonstrate a forecast method where you dont simply go into depression/elation cycles over model. I am trying to teach this to Garrett He flipped out yesterday at the 12z runs cause they were so warm ( I feel his pain, there has not been one major storm that has bullseyed state College since March 1994. We have gotten heavy snows, even had the most in some big storms, but the monsters have all been southeast of us with their maxes since he came into the world. And with the winter being lousy so far, as a snow geek he is upset. I grew up in ACY so any snow I saw when I got here was a dream come true, though we did get lollipopped a few times when I was a kid. and we all know the perverse satisfaction of knowing you had more snow than anyone else) . The time to flip out is Tuesday morning if there is nothing on the ground , not over models. But if you can come up with storm typing, then as the storm gets closer, you can eliminate the options. It may come down to the the biggest options are going to carry the day, it may come down to the opposite, 0 But if you have come up with a balanced figure then you dont worry about it, till you make the final change The storm 2 weekends ago was me trying to show this, The GFS started with nothing. We knew certain paths would yield certain results, so come up with the blend, then dont change it until you are certain of the one option that

Forecasting is not putting out 10 different options before an event. If you change your forecast 9 times, then out of 10 samples you were wrong on 90% of them. And whats more you cant go back and claim a foreacst was right. You can say, that idea was better, but I pulled it off the table. For instance in both December and now January, the ideas issued first beat the idea issued last ( right before the month) but the one that gets scored is the last one out, not the other one. In fact, I have violated my own methodology in some cases reacting to cold that came stronger quicker, but backed away BUT I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THE IDEA of people debating and making forecasts, but I think you cant run to the one that was right. So you try to stick with the product of your work. You will find that the more you put into something to come up with the answer, the better the chance you have of hitting it, and sticking with it, because you have studied the set up so closely,you are ready to pounce on the one that is best once you see it. But its the sum of the picture, and only when sure, do you jump on one aspect. In the winter so far, like the past several winters, it seems the EPO has been the king of the road and the SOI gyrations have been tipping that off around 10 days out. everything then responds to that.

I really think the answer to the forecast questions is not the models, but identifying EVERYTHING you can and then weighting it. The models are simply doing that. Their variance shows that obviously they disagree. So what is needed for the right answer. YOU! I dont care if you dont have a degree or not, if you love the weather and you love getting out there then you should put out your ideas. This is another libertarian rant against those that think its "irresponsible" for untrained guys to be posting forecasts. That is arrogant. I am suggesting a method that I use that you might want to try, sharing what I do. I am also suggesting that there is a philosophy that can make it easier not to swing all over the place when models do or do not go your way

jmanley32 wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:And here is the NWS Briefing:

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/CoastalStormBriefing.pdf

I fully expect those numbers to go up in the morning briefing they are planning, NAM is coming in very intense with 925mb winds even reaching 75+ knots sustained. And lookie here, maybe its sleet but wow.

Dunnzoo wrote:Update on the 0z NAM soundings:
    Teterboro hasn't changed, rain, with snow from 1-4am Tuesday
    Albany, sleet starts earlier, 1 pm Monday until 1 am Tuesday
    Caldwell went from sleet to snow, but starting later, 1 am -7am Tuesday
     White Plains - snow starts earlier, 4 am Tuesday til about 9 am

So, NNJ and White Plains only rain an snow, Albany a lot of sleet. I am sure there will be mixing of all precip types at some point everywhere.

algae888 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Update on the 0z NAM soundings:
    Teterboro hasn't changed, rain, with snow from 1-4am Tuesday
    Albany, sleet starts earlier, 1 pm Monday until 1 am Tuesday
    Caldwell went from sleet to snow, but starting later, 1 am -7am Tuesday
     White Plains - snow starts earlier, 4 am Tuesday til about 9 am

So, NNJ and White Plains only rain an snow, Albany a lot of sleet. I am sure there will be mixing of all precip types at some point everywhere.

I find those soundings odd janet as  the model shows snow/ sleet at the onset then rain later on. if you look at the tt maps it has some form of frozen precip from 15z Monday until 00z tues  {acc map}then mainly rain.

algae888 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Update on the 0z NAM soundings:
    Teterboro hasn't changed, rain, with snow from 1-4am Tuesday
    Albany, sleet starts earlier, 1 pm Monday until 1 am Tuesday
    Caldwell went from sleet to snow, but starting later, 1 am -7am Tuesday
     White Plains - snow starts earlier, 4 am Tuesday til about 9 am

So, NNJ and White Plains only rain an snow, Albany a lot of sleet. I am sure there will be mixing of all precip types at some point everywhere.

I find those soundings odd janet as  the model shows snow/ sleet at the onset then rain later on. if you look at the tt maps it has some form of frozen precip from 15z Monday until 00z tues  {acc map}then mainly rain.

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Update on the 0z NAM soundings:
    Teterboro hasn't changed, rain, with snow from 1-4am Tuesday
    Albany, sleet starts earlier, 1 pm Monday until 1 am Tuesday
    Caldwell went from sleet to snow, but starting later, 1 am -7am Tuesday
     White Plains - snow starts earlier, 4 am Tuesday til about 9 am

So, NNJ and White Plains only rain an snow, Albany a lot of sleet. I am sure there will be mixing of all precip types at some point everywhere.

I find those soundings odd janet as  the model shows snow/ sleet at the onset then rain later on. if you look at the tt maps it has some form of frozen precip from 15z Monday until 00z tues  {acc map}then mainly rain.

Tuesday> The precip is mainly monday no?