Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

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Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:29 pm

Tonight's 00z NAM jackpots CP and Doc counties. This looks like a C to 2 inch event for most right now. Start time would be late Tuesday morning through most of the afternoon.


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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:51 am

06z NAM snow accumulations tomorrow


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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by rb924119 on Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:55 am

DUSTING TO 2" NORTH OF I-78. THATS IT. lol now watch it snow six inches ahahaha

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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:16 am

Yea...not bothering to make a map for this one.

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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:53 am

12z 4K NAM totals. With 12-15:1 ratios likely away from the coast that would be nice. We shall see how the rest of the hi res guidance does with this sysetm today



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 11th = coating
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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:53 am

I smell a nice 2-3" event for DOC/CP

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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:55 am

NAM showing we have good VV's and a nice jet streak overhead that will allow lift. Upton actually discussing the possibility of WWA for NNJ, LHV and NWNJ.





Could be a very interesting rush hour in NNJ and LHV manana

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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:10 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I smell a nice 2-3" event for DOC/CP

Thanks Frank, any snow is GOOD snow.Lot's of fun tracking! Cold and snow!!!
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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:17 am

Looking good for northern folks I hope you get your snow Smile
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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:35 am

Honestly any where in the area I have circled can easily see 1-3 with isolated higher in areas on the N half of this area in ratios. There will likely be some frontogenic banding that developps somewhere



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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:20 pm

Euro on SV snows from about hour 28 to hours about 39 for NNJ - CP and Doc yuo go to hour 42 - light snow with pockets of moderate.


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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:30 pm

Upton doesn't even have a hwo which would include cp etc so I guess not go happen as there was a hwo but they removed it.
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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by dkodgis on Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:11 pm

Can't buy a thrill. All we are is a dusting in the wind above I-84 where we suffer the vagaries and vicissitudes and calumnies of life. Some real suffering too of the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune and no snow going on up here.
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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:49 pm

NAM AND HI RES BOTH NAM AND PARA showing goods in the form of white gold tomorrow,  1-4" N of I78 to HV and SW CT. 
Interesting runs on 18z. Mobile so can post SV.

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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:21 pm

Not that exciting, I guess its something, shows rain too on 4km nam, thats interesting.

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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:23 pm

parallel 3km, still similar snow totals, looks to come in a moderate bout for a few hrs.

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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:28 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Not that exciting, I guess its something, shows rain too on 4km nam, thats interesting.


15:1 ratios for this Jman not 10:1 except along the coast - I will take my 2.5 - 3" and run.
12" on the year so.

18Z 12K NAM


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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:37 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Not that exciting, I guess its something, shows rain too on 4km nam, thats interesting.


15:1 ratios for this Jman not 10:1 except along the coast - I will take my 2.5 - 3" and run.
12" on the year so.

18Z 12K NAM


Rhode Island Eastern CT. and Mass expecting 3-5" per NWS. NAM not showing this. What gives?
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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:49 pm

I am thinking start time between 7am and 8am tomorrow morning. HRRR has it coming in around 9am for NJ, but I feel these things usually start earlier. Again, I would not expect too much. A general coating to a couple of inches, especially N&W of NYC where up to 3 inches is possible.


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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by rb924119 on Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:02 pm

Although ratios will be high with this, likely 20:1 for most, this system (just like the last one that I busted on so badly) is largely moisture starved with a lack of adequate forcing. While there will be some lower-level frontogenesis along and just north of the warm front, the lack of a deep moisture source, mid-level frontogenesis, and upper-level jet dynamics will provide a less than notable system. Trying to learn from my mistakes here haha


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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:10 am

rb924119 wrote:Although ratios will be high with this, likely 20:1 for most, this system (just like the last one that I busted on so badly) is largely moisture starved with a lack of adequate forcing. While there will be some lower-level frontogenesis along and just north of the warm front, the lack of a deep moisture source, mid-level frontogenesis, and upper-level jet dynamics will provide a less than notable system. Trying to learn from my mistakes here haha


cannot argue with this one bit

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:39 am

Batch #1


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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:56 am

Coming down really nicely in Hackettstown.

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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:18 am

Steady accumulating snow here in Binghamton, NY. Ground starting to whiten.
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Re: Tuesday 01/31 Clipper

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:22 am

radar looks great for first 2-3 hrs. hasn't started yet here on LI but should by 10:00 or so. Cold temps and dewpoint should allow for fast accumulations. Early dismissal would be great.
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