February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
+51
bloc1357
nujerzeedevil
shabsies
GreyBeard
dad4twoboys
jimv45
2004blackwrx
Vinnydula
Dunnzoo
Dtone
dsix85
SNOW MAN
HEATMISER
bobjohnsonforthehall
devsman
Taffy
lglickman1
sroc4
Scullybutcher
CPcantmeasuresnow
SENJsnowman
dkodgis
weatherwatchermom
docstox12
gigs68
SoulSingMG
Math23x7
hyde345
aiannone
PayneEdelman
emokid51783
CyphaPSU
rb924119
algae888
skinsfan1177
jake732
Joe Snow
billg315
Armando Salvadore
jmanley32
nutleyblizzard
larryrock72
amugs
Mac003
frank 638
Radz
mikeypizano
RJB8525
Grselig
oldtimer
Frank_Wx
55 posters
Page 1 of 23
Page 1 of 23 • 1, 2, 3 ... 12 ... 23
February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
There is a ton of information to digest and analyze with Thursday's pending Mothrazilla. How potent will the PAC energy be once it crosses the Rockies? Exactly where does the surface low pressure develop then track? Does the 500mb or 250mb trough go negative? Where does the best banding, aka forcing, set-up?
The most critical piece of 500mb Pacific energy will be fully sampled on the models in tonight's 00z runs. Here it is coming ashore on the EURO earlier today.
By late Wednesday, this energy is digging deep into the TN Valley as heights rise along the East Coast. You notice the ridge spike over the West Coast and additional 500mb polar energy trying to interact with the PAC energy. There is uncertainty with how much the PAC energy digs. The more it digs, the more potent the surface low pressure is expected to be. In consequence, it could take northern areas out of the heaviest snow bands because the SLP would likely be further S&E. However, the polar energy trying to phase into the mean trough will help overspread the region with moderate snowfall. So regardless, I think many areas are in line for a sizable snow event. It's just a matter of determining where the banding forms.
The NAM, RGEM, and other models take the 250mb trough slightly negative by Thursday morning. The upper level steering winds would suggest the surface low tracks VERY close to the 40/70 BM. We saw today the SREFS spread were leaning N&W, which would take the SLP pretty much to the BM. The dynamics involved with a jet streak over New England and another on the backside of the trough should help enhance 700mb vertical velocity / frontogenesis.
RGEM 500mb, the second image, has 500mb level almost closing off. Actually, I would not doubt if it does. This model shows tremendous banding over NJ and Long Island. Snowfall rates easily 3"/hour. The surface low bombs out sub 980mb.
The NAM has the best forcing over NYC Metro, including much of NJ and CT. Soundings suggest there is enough instability to cause periods of thunder-snow, with snowfall rates between 2" to as much as 4" per HOUR. That is pretty unheard of, but a scenario I am not totally discounting given the dynamics at play. I always say you have to smell the rain to see the best snowfall rates, and that's pretty much what we're looking at with this system. Temps may start out above freezing for eastern NJ and parts of Long Island, but 850's will quickly crash and everything will turn to snow with very heavy rates. Those N&W of NYC will be all snow and you will see snow ratios higher than 10:1.
Here is where it gets tricky. The EURO has strong DBZ banding covering basically the entire region. This would result in a region-wide Mothrazilla (6-12" storm) with isolated locations seeing Godzilla snowfall amounts (12"+) storm. This is a scenario I can believe because of the dynamics and interaction with the polar trough / energy.
The RGEM, meanwhile, keeps the best DBZ banding S&E so LESS people are under the higher snowfall amounts. So it has a cut-off for those N&W of NYC. Additionally, latest guidance mainly at 18z began trending in this direction. The question is, do I believe it?
No, I do not. My 1st call snow map puts the region under a Mothrazilla with a large spread to general 8-12 inches of snow. This takes into account ratios. HOWEVER, I do believe there will be an area of Godzilla snowfall totals somewhere within the GOLD box. This is an area of uncertainty. I even include southern NJ in this box in the event the RGEM is correct and models trend this way. It's worth noting if the RGEM and southern models are correct, then the N&W areas will be taken out of the 8-12" zone. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, but I feel fairly confident the region is looking at a significant snowstorm.
One last thing, start time seems to be between 2-4am with an end time between 5-7pm. It would not shock me if this was just a 10 to 12 hour duration event. There is not enough Atlantic blocking to slow the speed of the storm down. If 500mb closed off, then that would surely help. Obviously that would mean higher snowfall totals. There remains a small chance this can happen. Like I said, I am pretty sure the RGEM did it with just the PAC energy. Snowfall rates will be pretty incredible. Many 1-2"/hour bands with certain hours looking at 3-4"/hour. It will be quite surreal to witness.
I will issue a final call snow map tomorrow evening around the same time.
Please be sure to join tonight's 9:30pm chat. HUGE 00z model runs!!!!!!!! WHERE WILL THE BANDING SET-UP????
The most critical piece of 500mb Pacific energy will be fully sampled on the models in tonight's 00z runs. Here it is coming ashore on the EURO earlier today.
By late Wednesday, this energy is digging deep into the TN Valley as heights rise along the East Coast. You notice the ridge spike over the West Coast and additional 500mb polar energy trying to interact with the PAC energy. There is uncertainty with how much the PAC energy digs. The more it digs, the more potent the surface low pressure is expected to be. In consequence, it could take northern areas out of the heaviest snow bands because the SLP would likely be further S&E. However, the polar energy trying to phase into the mean trough will help overspread the region with moderate snowfall. So regardless, I think many areas are in line for a sizable snow event. It's just a matter of determining where the banding forms.
The NAM, RGEM, and other models take the 250mb trough slightly negative by Thursday morning. The upper level steering winds would suggest the surface low tracks VERY close to the 40/70 BM. We saw today the SREFS spread were leaning N&W, which would take the SLP pretty much to the BM. The dynamics involved with a jet streak over New England and another on the backside of the trough should help enhance 700mb vertical velocity / frontogenesis.
RGEM 500mb, the second image, has 500mb level almost closing off. Actually, I would not doubt if it does. This model shows tremendous banding over NJ and Long Island. Snowfall rates easily 3"/hour. The surface low bombs out sub 980mb.
The NAM has the best forcing over NYC Metro, including much of NJ and CT. Soundings suggest there is enough instability to cause periods of thunder-snow, with snowfall rates between 2" to as much as 4" per HOUR. That is pretty unheard of, but a scenario I am not totally discounting given the dynamics at play. I always say you have to smell the rain to see the best snowfall rates, and that's pretty much what we're looking at with this system. Temps may start out above freezing for eastern NJ and parts of Long Island, but 850's will quickly crash and everything will turn to snow with very heavy rates. Those N&W of NYC will be all snow and you will see snow ratios higher than 10:1.
Here is where it gets tricky. The EURO has strong DBZ banding covering basically the entire region. This would result in a region-wide Mothrazilla (6-12" storm) with isolated locations seeing Godzilla snowfall amounts (12"+) storm. This is a scenario I can believe because of the dynamics and interaction with the polar trough / energy.
The RGEM, meanwhile, keeps the best DBZ banding S&E so LESS people are under the higher snowfall amounts. So it has a cut-off for those N&W of NYC. Additionally, latest guidance mainly at 18z began trending in this direction. The question is, do I believe it?
No, I do not. My 1st call snow map puts the region under a Mothrazilla with a large spread to general 8-12 inches of snow. This takes into account ratios. HOWEVER, I do believe there will be an area of Godzilla snowfall totals somewhere within the GOLD box. This is an area of uncertainty. I even include southern NJ in this box in the event the RGEM is correct and models trend this way. It's worth noting if the RGEM and southern models are correct, then the N&W areas will be taken out of the 8-12" zone. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, but I feel fairly confident the region is looking at a significant snowstorm.
One last thing, start time seems to be between 2-4am with an end time between 5-7pm. It would not shock me if this was just a 10 to 12 hour duration event. There is not enough Atlantic blocking to slow the speed of the storm down. If 500mb closed off, then that would surely help. Obviously that would mean higher snowfall totals. There remains a small chance this can happen. Like I said, I am pretty sure the RGEM did it with just the PAC energy. Snowfall rates will be pretty incredible. Many 1-2"/hour bands with certain hours looking at 3-4"/hour. It will be quite surreal to witness.
I will issue a final call snow map tomorrow evening around the same time.
Please be sure to join tonight's 9:30pm chat. HUGE 00z model runs!!!!!!!! WHERE WILL THE BANDING SET-UP????
Last edited by Frank_Wx on Wed Feb 08, 2017 9:13 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Just great Frank Hope all holds for 30 hours more
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1103
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 78
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Thank you for the analysis.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1408
Reputation : 140
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 54
Location : Wayne NJ
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Amazing.
cya in the chat later
cya in the chat later
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1994
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 38
Location : Hackettstown, NJ
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
RJB8525 wrote:Amazing.
cya in the chat later
I am already there!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Awesome, thanks Frank, looking fwd to the Chat!
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1028
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
frank thank u for your post and maps u posted my fingers are crossed for a godzilla storm we def need a storm like this because it has been a boring winter
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2824
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Frank Great explanation as usual. The wait is almost over
Mac003- Posts : 23
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-12-14
Location : Clifton, NJ
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Awesome write Frank bring we home tonight for Iwill.not be there, son's ice hockey game
_________________
MugsÂ
AKA:King:Â Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Great job Frank. Now let's see if we can get that 8-12" about 25-30 miles more south.
larryrock72- Posts : 140
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2017-01-03
Age : 52
Location : Barnegat, NJ
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
larryrock72 wrote:Great job Frank. Now let's see if we can get that 8-12" about 25-30 miles more south.
North please
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Huge 0z runs tonight! SREFS leads off in about 30 minutes!!!
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1952
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
SREFS...big
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
SREFS actually shifted north
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS actually shifted north
Am I doing this right? MAAADONE! (I am Italian...)
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
This will b surreal to witness. Will wind play any factor in the stronger senarios?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20513
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
maddone is right and yes mikey you are saying that right
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2824
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Madonne or even better, Minkia!!!
Here is what Minkia means..
Here is what Minkia means..
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Warning, don't watch around children. Or not at all if you don't like language.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Man, if they verifies, it puts me in a good foot easy!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:Warning, don't watch around children. Or not at all if you don't like language.
If you grew up in a family with Italian roots, you've heard far worse I am sure
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Awesome post Frank, check out the Omega signature of the NYC metro....
Deep layer extending down towards 850mb, despite lower ratios, this will transpire hefty snow rates for a solid 4-6 hour period if all goes well. 18z GFS has more interaction between the polar disturbance compared to other models, which underlines your statement about filling in more of a shield.
Deep layer extending down towards 850mb, despite lower ratios, this will transpire hefty snow rates for a solid 4-6 hour period if all goes well. 18z GFS has more interaction between the polar disturbance compared to other models, which underlines your statement about filling in more of a shield.
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 171
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-12-23
Location : Springfield, NJ
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:Warning, don't watch around children. Or not at all if you don't like language.
lmao. now I know. and knowing is half the battle.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4462
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
MADONNE!!! Mean still leaning NNW
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
I believe you violated one of your own rules, time out for you... : )Frank_Wx wrote:Warning, don't watch around children. Or not at all if you don't like language.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20513
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Page 1 of 23 • 1, 2, 3 ... 12 ... 23
Page 1 of 23
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum