BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 1:58 am

850mb winds 64kts plus I only have tt so cannot see the in between time frames but tgat run was a epic u know what.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by SNOW MAN on Fri Mar 10, 2017 5:26 am

SoulSingMG wrote:EURO IS ABOUT TO BLOW US ALL TO SNOWBLIVION!

This made me bust out laughing ! This is GREAT ! lol! lol! lol!

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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:11 am

Euro ensembles


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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:14 am

SoulSingMG wrote:EURO IS ABOUT TO BLOW US ALL TO SNOWBLIVION!
fell asleep early last night just woke up to catch up. Have to say I love your late night shout outs .. lol! lol! now I will continue reading..
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:31 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro ensembles


Given the past few runs, no complaints here. Still need a slight push east. That GFS though... Evil or Very Mad

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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:38 am

Frank great write up!!  Not a lot to add to the discussion this morning except to say we def sit in a decent position right now.  I wouldn't worry too much right now about the GFS hugging the coast, although this is possible.  Its own Ensemble mean is east as is the euro op and its ensemble mean.  GFS Op is the outlier for now.  Avg the differences and we are looking good right now.  





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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:49 am

sroc4 wrote:Frank great write up!!  Not a lot to add to the discussion this morning except to say we def sit in a decent position right now.  I wouldn't worry too much right now about the GFS hugging the coast, although this is possible.  Its own Ensemble mean is east as is the euro op and its ensemble mean.  GFS Op is the outlier for now.  Avg the differences and we are looking good right now.  


Very comforting words for us Coasties! Let's hope...and track!

Frank, that write up was superb...and thank you for including so many fundamental explanations for novices like me...much appreciated!

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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:58 am

EPS is downright impressive. Some the indies get down to the 960's. Once today's event gets out of the way, we will start to get a consensus with track. Sunday's 12z runs should tell the tale. My gut tells me this takes a track just inside the benchmark.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:03 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:EPS is downright impressive. Some the indies get down to the 960's. Once today's event gets out of the way, we will start to get a consensus  with track. Sunday's 12z runs should tell the tale. My gut tells me this takes a track just inside the benchmark.

That's a fair assessment at this point Nutz. Looking at the image I posted above the EPS mean is literally on the BM.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:11 am

sroc4 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:EPS is downright impressive. Some the indies get down to the 960's. Once today's event gets out of the way, we will start to get a consensus  with track. Sunday's 12z runs should tell the tale. My gut tells me this takes a track just inside the benchmark.

That's a fair assessment at this point Nutz.  Looking at the image I posted above the EPS mean is literally on the BM.  

OK, I did my homework, and now I know exactly what the BM is and what is means generally speaking. Where would I want the track realtive to the BM to get max snowfall and no rain for the Jersey Shore? I figure that the dynamics of each storm make a difference, but typically...on it? Just west? Just east?


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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:19 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:EPS is downright impressive. Some the indies get down to the 960's. Once today's event gets out of the way, we will start to get a consensus  with track. Sunday's 12z runs should tell the tale. My gut tells me this takes a track just inside the benchmark.

That's a fair assessment at this point Nutz.  Looking at the image I posted above the EPS mean is literally on the BM.  

OK, I did my homework, and now I know exactly what the BM is and what is means generally speaking. Where would I want the track realtive to the BM to get max snowfall and no rain for the Jersey Shore? I figure that the dynamics of each storm make a difference, but typically...on it? Just west? Just east?


For yuo a track on or just SE of the BM is usually ideal.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:20 am

The euro and EPS are pure hotness! I imagine some individual members are measured in feet not inches? And man 990s is go produce high wind we get into 970's or dare say 960s thst could get near hurricane strength possibly. Def go b a long 3 days here. The gfs had me bit worried but it us a outlier right now and it appears euro has a very good handle on where it might end up.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:22 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Euro ensembles


Given the past few runs, no complaints here. Still need a slight push east. That GFS though... Evil or Very Mad
that's an incredibly high mean I'd love to see the indies if someone can get a chance to post them.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:35 am

At this point I wouldn't worry about a run hugging the coast too close, because there may be one just outside the BM at some point as well. The exact track will shift west and east on the next several model runs. Just keep the strength and general setup as it is now and I'll be happy. Exact track won't be clear until Sunday or Monday anyway. That said, the Storm of 1993 did go to a prolonged period of sleet cutting down initially predicted totals so it's possible. But remember, that still gave most people over a foot of snow.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by TheAresian on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:38 am

I'm curious about something for my area. If I'm looking at the map correctly, 2m temps are forecast to be mid to upper teens. Doesn't that make the snow ratio closer to 20 to 1?
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:42 am

That's an interesting thing about this. March snows are usually with temps around or above 32 so wet, and closer to 10:1. This may be a colder drier snow, so I would think ratios may be higher. Except right along the coast where warmer air gets drawn in.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:45 am

UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...


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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by SNOW MAN on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:51 am

I feel like a kid at Christmas waiting to run down the stairs and see what Santa brought. I can hardly stand the anticipation. Come on Tuesday.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:54 am

Funny thing about this upcoming potential. I am supposed to fly out on Wed to Savannah Georgia for a golf trip and party for St Patty's day with the boys.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by SNOW MAN on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:56 am

sroc4 wrote:Funny thing about this upcoming potential.  I am supposed to fly out on Wed to Savannah Georgia for a golf trip and party for St Patty's day with the boys.  

Will you stay or go ?
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:57 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Funny thing about this upcoming potential.  I am supposed to fly out on Wed to Savannah Georgia for a golf trip and party for St Patty's day with the boys.  

Will you stay or go ?

Well flight is 3:40pm Wednesday.   If I have to drive I'm going!! LOL

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:09 am

Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...

While still a possible scenario, I think the GFS is too far west and will correct east in time. EURO is a little to far east for my liking. Rooting hard for a UKMET track!!!
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by mwilli5783 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:18 am

people at my job (target in westbury l.i)don't think tuesday is gonna be a big deal,i tell them that fridays and sundays storms are like the appitizer to the main course come tuesday....stubborn people i guess

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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:26 am

mwilli5783 wrote:people at my job (target in westbury l.i)don't think tuesday is gonna be a big deal,i tell them that fridays and sundays storms are like the appitizer to the main course come tuesday....stubborn people i guess
There is no longer a Sunday storm, that went poof, might have been models sniffing out tuesday.  Which will likely be a big deal, maybe a major deal. People are complacent up here, especially after so many 60 degree days.  Just be prepared for last minute craze i feel bad for you working at target for that.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:27 am

Is no one gonna post the Euro operational snow map? Usually someone does.
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