June Obs/Disco

RGEM would be a big hit

skinsfan1177 wrote:
RGEM would be a big hit

Skins that would suck we are to leave on Sat...i will not be on the water trying to get into Manasquan Inlet..

this really stinks ugg the one time.

jmanley32 wrote:this really stinks ugg the one time.

i know...we are leaving on Sunday...

Heat to end the month then we go normal to cool

Dr. C says so as per guidance

amugs wrote:Heat to end the month then we go normal to cool

Dr. C says so as per guidance

thats fine by me...

3km nam has a nasty line of what look to b possibly severe storms around 9am tomorrow then clearing out quickly. sunday looks great. i hope so.

.66" in the bucket with the line clearing out in the next hour 3k nam ftw!!
Rest if the weekend looks great.

Browns Mills NJ famous for the War of the Worlds radio show hysteria and now this HOLY SNIKES!!

Looking  ahead  precip wise Madonne very active pattern wish it were Jan/Feb

Total from the event was .51 inches and just a few showers at that.Looks like the bulk went south of here.Gorgeous day now, 86 degrees, sunny, breezy.

amugs wrote:Looking  ahead  precip wise Madonne very active pattern wish it were Jan/Feb

my rain meter said I had 2.15 inches  of rain this morning...can that be possible..currently sunny and 79 Leaving tom..


Mugs.     .I hope we do not have that much rain over the next couple of weeks..we will be on the boat until July 14th...keep us posted.please.I will be checking in often...

Have a great day!!

Today turned out to be a very nice day

Snow88 wrote:Today turned out to be a very nice day

it did but sunday had that unexpected freak eainstorm in afternoon caught our outdoor plans by surprise. i hear rain again this weekrnd. story of this summer i guess.

It looks like the heat returns this weekend. Back into the 90's.

Only a few days away from July, I would say Meteorological Summer is moving quick. June has not been terribly warm, but this weekend will probably put everyone in the above normal category.

what a gorgeous morning morning low of 61 degrees

frank 638 wrote: what a gorgeous morning morning low of 61 degrees

Got down to 53° so awesome sleeping with the windows open!

low of 62*
That may be the last widespread cool crisp morning.

Dtone wrote:low of 62*
That may be the last widespread cool crisp morning.

D 
If Euro Ens are right next week the trough returns Friday ish over the NE and we return to Normal which means nighttime low in the mid to lower 60s and dry.

Beautiful morning .... 68 currently in AC....a bit breezy with small craft advisory until tom morning...traveling today..on inter coastal...the waves last night on the ocean side were fierce to watch from the board walk...they were 5-7 feet...lucky we are on the inside...

amugs wrote:

Dtone wrote:low of 62*
That may be the last widespread cool crisp morning.

D 
If Euro Ens are right next week the trough returns Friday ish over the NE and we return to Normal which means nighttime low in the mid to lower 60s and dry.

So far any LR projection of the hot and humid has persistently been blunted by either short duration, or not nearly as hot and humid as the LR may had led one to believe.  

Interesting too that most models have had the ENSO in an El Nino state for the summer, but it has persistently remained in the neutral category.  Latest ONI value for April/May/June should be out in a week or so, but the ONI is still not in the official El Nino category.  Latest 30day SOI avg is technically in the El Nino category, but the 90 AVG is still neutral and overall the atmospheric observations in the tropical pacific have by and large behaved like an ENSO neutral state.  Some models have began to back down on the El Nino and have it remaining neutral well into the fall.  Its too early to tell what effects any of this will have yet on the winter as there are many other factors to consider.  Here is an excerpt from the CPC's latest ENSO discussion.  

Many models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, the NCEP CFSv2 and most of the models from the latest runs of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are now favoring the continuation of ENSO-neutral. These predictions, combined with the near-average atmospheric conditions over the Pacific, have resulted in slightly more confidence for the persistence of ENSO-neutral (50 to ~55% chance). However, chances for El Niño remain elevated (35-50%) relative to the long-term average into the fall. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Tx sroc for update....currently in Somers Point 69* winds ssw 12 mph....foggy miserable morning....

I wonder if the National Weather Service will extend the severe thunderstorm watch to NYC and East to Long Island and Connecticut or will we have a severe thunderstorm warning especially for NYC. Very humid getting cloudy waiting for these thunderstorms to come in

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

Dtone wrote:low of 62*
That may be the last widespread cool crisp morning.

D 
If Euro Ens are right next week the trough returns Friday ish over the NE and we return to Normal which means nighttime low in the mid to lower 60s and dry.

So far any LR projection of the hot and humid has persistently been blunted by either short duration, or not nearly as hot and humid as the LR may had led one to believe.  

Interesting too that most models have had the ENSO in an El Nino state for the summer, but it has persistently remained in the neutral category.  Latest ONI value for April/May/June should be out in a week or so, but the ONI is still not in the official El Nino category.  Latest 30day SOI avg is technically in the El Nino category, but the 90 AVG is still neutral and overall the atmospheric observations in the tropical pacific have by and large behaved like an ENSO neutral state.  Some models have began to back down on the El Nino and have it remaining neutral well into the fall.  Its too early to tell what effects any of this will have yet on the winter as there are many other factors to consider.  Here is an excerpt from the CPC's latest ENSO discussion.  

Many models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, the NCEP CFSv2 and most of the models from the latest runs of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are now favoring the continuation of ENSO-neutral. These predictions, combined with the near-average atmospheric conditions over the Pacific, have resulted in slightly more confidence for the persistence of ENSO-neutral (50 to ~55% chance). However, chances for El Niño remain elevated (35-50%) relative to the long-term average into the fall. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This is observation is key.....have you looked at the recent EPS for day 6 and beyond?? Trough, trough, and more trough. The models are having an incredibly difficult time with the extended. The true reason is anybody's guess, but my own thinking is the SOI is having a large impact on this, since it has been consistently biased negative. Just like in winter, when it's negative, look for eastern CONUS troughing to show up about 7-10 days down the road in concert with Gulf of Alaska troughing and subsequent western ridging. Well, when it's consistently negative, theoretically there should also be a time-mean setup like that, which for the most part is verifying. I also think the significantly below average nearshore coastal waters are having an impact, as too is the water content of the region's soil, allowing the troughs to deepen as they draw nearer. The models, with their inability to resolve such subtleties at longer ranges, dissolve these troughs until they come back with a vengeance once inside days 7-8, as the computational error starts becoming reduced and the finer details start having more weight. Just my opinion.

What I WILL say with certainty, though, is that this is really elevating my excitement for this coming winter season. Once these types of patterns become established, it becomes quite difficult for them to be eroded, even through the change of seasons. In fact, this type of pattern with the timing we are seeing is pretty much prime for a positive feedback cycle as we head into the colder months, at least in my opinion. We shall see, but right now, I'm thinking a '09-'10/'13-'14/'14-'15 repeat/blend may be possible this year. I'll leave that for our longer range experts to chime in on when the time is right, though.