My Summer Outlook 2017

Somewhat truncated this year. Comments and/or questions are welcome:

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

thank you tom for your summer outlook i would not mind to having a cooler summer because i hate the heat esp when its hazy hot and humid.i rather have temps in the 80s with dry conditions

Great outlook, Tom!!! It's definitely going to be interesting to see how this summer plays out imo, because of the possible interaction and feedback that might try to occur between the already wetter than normal ground (which is only going to get wetter over the coming 10-14 days against the norms) and the significantly below average coastal and near-shore waters off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. It might end up that even July heat is thwarted a bit by troughs deepening as they approach the Northeast and feel the "effects" of these factors if they hold. Obviously based on your outlook you feel July will be able to overcome this, but you do mention the possibility again come August given the evolution of other factors. What are your thoughts?

frank 638 wrote:thank you tom for your summer outlook i would not mind to having a cooler summer because i hate the heat esp when its hazy hot and humid.i rather have temps in the 80s with dry conditions

I could not agree with you more!

Isotherm wrote:Somewhat truncated this year. Comments and/or questions are welcome:

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Thank you Tom!

Great Write up Tom!  Ray you make some interesting points regarding the feedback regarding soil moisture content(SMC) and of course the SST influence. I'm curious what is the mechanisms behind how SMC affects the mean pattern. I've always been intruiged by this when used in early winter forecasts as well. Any insights as to how SMC influences the pattern is much appreciated. Thanks!  

PS I hope everyone is enjoying their Spring!

Thanks guys!
Scott/Ray - empirically speaking, I have found that soil moisture tends to be a fairly good correlate of temperature maxima potential, and not as much with humidity or low temperatures. Although, physically, one would tend to expect slightly more elevated lows and dew points under a wet regime. The overall Atlantic base state is still +AMO, so I think it is possible the recent shelf cooling is a function of the near term pattern, and that may reverse. The high soil moisture will reduce the percentage of solar insolation assigned to warming the BL and redirect it to drying the ground. However, given the high evapotranspiration rates at this time of year, if we were to enter a 3 to 4 week dry period, that short term soil moisture could very rapidly reverse. I don't expect that to happen due to other signals. And agree Ray, if the +ENSO signal becomes more robust with frequent pressure falls in the C tropical pacific by late summer, we may attempt to build the troughiness over the Northeast in August. So, to be honest, I am actually a bit more concerned temp departures will be lower than I forecasted rather than warmer.

Nice write up. You don't however mention anything concerning any tropical development. What are your thoughts on that?

Ah, ok Tom, I can see your train of thought now. Even though you see a pattern change from persistent troughiness to more progression,which will allow the AMO base state to get the nearshore waters to recover, the transience in the pattern (forced by various mechanisms) will limit the overall impact to the temperature regime from the anomalous heat flux by the +AMO base state feeding into ridging in the east and the moderating effect of continued enhanced soil moisture resulting from the transient pattern. Your forecast simply weights the larger signal of the +AMO base state slightly more than the overall synoptic pattern progression of air and land, at least for the coastal plain. As for the interior, it appears you're weighting them equally. Thanks!! It definitely makes sense, now it just comes down to watching it unfold haha

Verification:



http://www.lightinthestorm.com/



June-July-August US temperature anomalies:

Last3mTDeptUS

June-July-August US precipitation anomalies:

Last3mPDeptUS

Northeastern US temperature anomalies:

Last3mTDeptNRCC

Northeastern US precipitation anomalies:

Last3mPDeptNRCC

Temperature departures for the summer for Northeastern cities:

DCA: +1.1
NYC: -0.1
BOS: +0.3
PHL: +0.4
EWR: -0.5
JFK: +0.3
LGA: +0.4
ISP: +0.5
BDR: +0.9

NYC area average: +0.5

Immediate NYC area average (EWR, LGA, JFK, NYC): 0.0

Forecast was -0.25 to +0.75 for temperature departures.

NYC precip: 12.3″
EWR precip: 15.14″

The ideas that the hottest part of summer relative to normal would occur in July, with cooling in August, as well as the overall summer being very close to normal temperature wise verified. Both the temperature and precipitation outlook for the CONUS as a whole closely mirrored the outlook. The coolest zone was across the Great Lakes with the hottest region the West, as anticipated. Flaws in the outlook included more rain than expected in the Deep South (particularly due to Harvey – very difficult to anticipate), and less rain than anticipated in coastal New England. Otherwise, both the progression and overall expectations went essentially as prognosticated.

Given temperature departures fell within the expected, narrow range, and precipitation production was above normal for most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, this long range outlook will be considered a success.

Final grade for the Summer Outlook 2017: A

Well done Tom!

Thanks Scott!

Yet again, another forecast tagged and bagged. Incredible!! Ever think about doing this professionally?? Lol

Well done! On to winter!

rb924119 wrote:Yet again, another forecast tagged and bagged. Incredible!! Ever think about doing this professionally?? Lol

You dont know how many times I have said this to him or he is closest Met??

Great work again Tom. Bring us the goods this winter.

Thank you very much for the kind words everyone, appreciate it! Looking forward to winter forecasting season.