Seismic Activity - Volcanos

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Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:38 pm

Folks,

If you have not heard there are three volcanos that are ready to blow their stacks.
This is all due to low solar activity and low irradiance from the sun on planet earth.
This has happened many times throughout history and even recently in teh last century that caused global cooling by .2-.3*C (1960' and 70's)

From our own Isotherm
"Low solar --> increased galactic cosmic rays --> interplanetary magnetic field modulation of earthquake frequency --> volcanism. "

Mt. Agung - evacuations of teh entire island of 10,0000. Over 500 tremors have been happening a day since Monday.

MANARO ON VANUATU - they have evacuated the island of 7,000 by boat and air there. Located in teh South Pacific

This last could be the mother of volcanoes - and holy poop if this goes off.

CAMPI FLEGREL in the homelaned of Italia, they are nervous cause this is a super volcano that last time it blew was 40,000 years ago I believe and caused a volcanic winter over Europe that is said to have killed off the last of neanderthal. It is reported that their have been active fissures and tremors and may be connected to the EQ that the experienced that last few years in Italy. This would rival Vesuvius from all accounts and we know from history what that bad boy did.

Discuss and post articles and tweets/links.

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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by TheAresian on Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:33 pm

Here is a link that provides live updates on the volcano situation. However, be forewarned that there is an extremely annoying ad that plays every time the page is refreshed. Also, updates are only provided when something new happens. The wait could be 10 minutes or 3 hours.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/859280/Bali-volcano-update-Mount-Agung-eruption-latest-seismic-graphs-news-maps-warnings-live
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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:07 pm

Scary stuff, imagine if they all blew at the same time, I have to imagine that would cause disaster for the entire globe to some extent? Is it also no coincidence that this year yellowstones super volcano has also had higher than normal activity?  I know that is highly unlikely to erupt but might we just be ehjeaded back to the stone ages I mean how many islands have already been left in ruins, this year its kinda starting to scarre me whats next a noreaster that stalls with 200mph winds and 15 feet of snow lol (that wouldn't be funny btw)
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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by dkodgis on Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:57 pm

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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by rb924119 on Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Scary stuff, imagine if they all blew at the same time, I have to imagine that would cause disaster for the entire globe to some extent? Is it also no coincidence that this year yellowstones super volcano has also had higher than normal activity?  I know that is highly unlikely to erupt but might we just be ehjeaded back to the stone ages I mean how many islands have already been left in ruins, this year its kinda starting to scarre me whats next a noreaster that stalls with 200mph winds and 15 feet of snow lol (that wouldn't be funny btw)

Knock a "0" off those winds and I think we'd all be ready to sacrifice an entire winter for that provided it would be guaranteed ahahahaha

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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:24 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Scary stuff, imagine if they all blew at the same time, I have to imagine that would cause disaster for the entire globe to some extent? Is it also no coincidence that this year yellowstones super volcano has also had higher than normal activity?  I know that is highly unlikely to erupt but might we just be ehjeaded back to the stone ages I mean how many islands have already been left in ruins, this year its kinda starting to scarre me whats next a noreaster that stalls with 200mph winds and 15 feet of snow lol (that wouldn't be funny btw)

Knock a "0" off those winds and I think we'd all be ready to sacrifice an entire winter for that provided it would be guaranteed ahahahaha
Woulkd you all really want 15 feet of snow in one storm? I like snow but that would cause massive problems, including deaths im sure due to nobody being able to move anywhere for months.
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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by dkodgis on Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:25 pm

A few years ago, Red Sox Suck and Buffalo had what...half of that? I like snow but not that much snow
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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by Isotherm on Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:46 pm

Thank you for making the thread Mugs. Good stuff!

Several points:

1) Volcanoes are stochastic - numerous, capricious variables that make eruption forecasting exceptionally difficult;

2) Monitor degassing of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide from the edifice -- higher (lower) SO2 levels tend to indicate that magma is closer (further away) from the surface. This doesn't necessarily guarantee eruption, but typically, increased SO2 degassing tends to indicate that the magma is progressing further up the mountain;

3) Since 1880, the only two volcanic eruptions of greater than VEI 5 were VEI 6 Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883 - acted concomitantly with very low solar activity to produce a significant cool period for the remainder of the 19th century), as well as VEI 6 Pinatubo (1991; 0.2-0.3c cooling, initially countervailed by ++ENSO);

4) The explosive history of Mt. Agung should be noted. This coupled with the unprecedented high levels of seismicity increase the probability of a significant eruption. Most eruptions fall below VEI 5; however, the history and seismicity suggest a major eruption is certainly possible;

5) The time period of eruption is rather atypical, as is the current ENSO state. Most of the major eruptions occurred late winter-spring, which translated into ample time for atmospheric sulfate loading, and subsequent modulation of the winter pattern. If this volcano doesn't erupt for another month or more, it may be too late to materially affect the upcoming winter. Additionally, if a significant eruption occurs, it would be the first time - since the 1932 eruption - that a cold ENSO state occurred concurrently (could have global temperature implications for the first year - would implicate enhanced cooling);

6) Explosivity is not only important, but also the amount of SO2 released into the stratosphere (not necessarily ash plume; SO2 particles are sufficiently large such that an effective intercepting of visible light occurs, greatly enhancing reflectivity / scattering);


7) With respect to winter, even if a major eruption occurred, the research diverges as far as the effects. Some research suggests the tropical troposphere (stratosphere) would cool (warm) with a stronger than normal polar night jet induced --> +AO --> warmer winter year 1 for North America/Europe. Winter year 2 would be colder. This is small sample size, however. The winter following 1963 Agung eruption was very cold and snowy with a -NAO/-AO. Again, doesn't prove that the volcano is implicated in that case either. We had other factors supporting blocking.


Bottom line is there are many indeterminate factors to consider, and even if / after it happens, it will be a wait and see game as far as pattern impacts. But it is safe to say that a VEI 5 eruption would yield global cooling for 1 to potentially 3 years, attributed to the eruption and potentially enhanced by La Nina.
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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by Isotherm on Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:28 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/supervolcano/article2.shtml

Here is what would happen, hypothetically, if Yellowstone VEI 8 happened again.
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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:35 am

Isotherm wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/supervolcano/article2.shtml

Here is what would happen, hypothetically, if Yellowstone VEI 8 happened again.

Holy smokes (no pun here) Isotherm that woudl be ridiculous - half the world would be gone from its effects. Scary but one day when who knows it will happen.
Great post above that. Thanks for posting and the kudos.
Folks dont realize teh parallel between terrestrial alignments and events and the atmospheric changes or lack thereof to our planet.
Very interesting days and years ahead as we head deep into this solar minimum. New frontier for me personally (and many others I assume here) but not for planet earth at all.

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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by sroc4 on Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:12 am

Tom, Mugs, fascinating stuff for sure. Mugs you quoted Tom above as saying:" Low solar --> increased galactic cosmic rays --> interplanetary magnetic field modulation of earthquake frequency --> volcanism. "

Id love to learn more about this. I mean since the frequency of eruptions, esp Trop volcanic eruptions, are so infrequent I cant imagine that most of this data is extrapolated and or anecdotal.

Where can I read some literature on this stuff?



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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by Isotherm on Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:37 am

Seismicity continues to run high underneath Agung.


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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by amugs on Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:07 pm

Isotherm wrote:Seismicity continues to run high underneath Agung.



Vanuatu exploded and the other two Volcanoes on the island chain are wanting in on the fun.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/01/vanuatu-volcano-erupts-11000-prepare-to-evacuate.html

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Re: Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Post by amugs on Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:06 pm

Agung really highly active - what is keeping this lid on? The concern is with all this activity when she blows it could be bad rally bad.


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