January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Sanchize06 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Mt Holly clearly unsure about me here in Monmouth county as everyone else has either been upgraded to a WSW or placed under a WWA. Still a watch for now

In Hazlet same as you in blue but they upped total from 1-3 to 3-6 in last couple of hours

Yeah, ultimately I think they'll go to a Winter Storm Warning, but I don't blame them for perhaps wanting to see the 12z runs first. Cut offs are tricky with this storm and Monmouth county is a little more difficult as the criteria is 6" for a warning whereas Ocean and places south are I believe 4 or 5".

hey I will take what I get and be happy...just think its funny our little spot is in watch vs warning.

09z SREFS shifted west. Show a WNW lean and qpf increased

In my opinion current radar suggests the storm wants to ride the coast rather than re-develop well east off the coast

Frank you may have to introduce a wind map if the NAM plays out, it had some serious gists from NE NJ to LI 50-64 mph range West to east.

Frank_Wx wrote:In my opinion current radar suggests the storm wants to ride the coast rather than re-develop well east off the coast

This is incredible, if NYC sees anywhere near the totals from NAM theres no preparation, this would be bad, very bad.

Frank_Wx wrote:09z SREFS shifted west. Show a WNW lean and qpf increased

Big shift

Hey I have a question about water temps...the water temp at Sandy Hook is currently 31.6, will that help us during this storm?

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey I have a question about water temps...the water temp at Sandy Hook is currently 31.6, will that help us during this storm?

We do not really have onshore flow anyway...we will not mix if that is the question.

Frank_Wx wrote:In my opinion current radar suggests the storm wants to ride the coast rather than re-develop well east off the coast

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18

Meso analysis. There's a low off the west coast of Florida just 2mb weaker than the one off the east coast over the Bahamas. Was this modeled?

Edit: No it wasn't, by GFS/NAM or CMC. Hmmmm.

Double Edit: Now it's gone, insignificant I suppose.

Quietace wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey I have a question about water temps...the water temp at Sandy Hook is currently 31.6, will that help us during this storm?

We do not really have onshore flow anyway...we will not mix if that is the question.

no I am not worried about that..I was wondering if would enhance the snow...

Found this to be cool. IBM develop their own model. Deep Thunder.

https://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/49954.wss

Here is what it predicts for Thursday's storm:

Frank_Wx wrote:Found this to be cool. IBM develop their own model. Deep Thunder.

https://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/49954.wss

Here is what it predicts for Thursday's storm:

That is based on the MPAS core developed by NCAR. It was the core that should have been chosen for the next gen GFS rather than the FV3. It is rather accurate especially with the BL/CP etc. schemes they are running on it. I heard they might downscale it as well to boast accuracy since it is lacking in that(my only complaint, as expected in 15km model).

rb hearing ya loud and clear on those winds 3km got some pretty intense winds into the area, LI worst of cpourse but even NYC sees near 60mph gusts.

IF this Hi Res Model is correct then Watch out is all I can say - either we bust in a BDB way or in a NEMO way.

Quietace wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Found this to be cool. IBM develop their own model. Deep Thunder.

https://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/49954.wss

Here is what it predicts for Thursday's storm:

That is based on the MPAS core developed by NCAR. It was the core that should have been chosen for the next gen GFS rather than the FV3. It is rather accurate especially with the BL/CP etc. schemes they are running on it.

7.9 nyc and 24 in CT without ratios man that would be a kick especially since I USED to live there LOL, 7.9 with ratios would be over a foot through so not bad at all after what was called last night.

amugs wrote:IF this Hi Res Model is correct then Watch out is all I can say - either we bust in a BDB way or in a NEMO way.

True enough, I am crossing all parts I can for the 12z hi res runs : )

Holy blitz and downright dangerous 3km!! Theres at least a 6 hr period that winds get over 65mph gusts even into NYC and westchester north, man oh man this would be epic with the snow it showed.

jmanley32 wrote:Holy blitz and downright dangerous 3km!! Theres at least a 6 hr period that winds get over 65mph gusts even into NYC and westchester north, man oh man this would be epic with the snow it showed.

If thing develops as I think it will today, most people along the coast will go to BW's....

amugs wrote:IF this Hi Res Model is correct then Watch out is all I can say - either we bust in a BDB way or in a NEMO way.

I’ll take the Nemo bust all day long. Crippled Suffolk county for 3 days.

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Holy blitz and downright dangerous 3km!! Theres at least a 6 hr period that winds get over 65mph gusts even into NYC and westchester north, man oh man this would be epic with the snow it showed.

If thing develops as I think it will today, most people along the coast will go to BW's....

winbds start kick up 50-60 gusts topping out as high as 75mph on LI and jersey around 8am and last most of the day, thats go cause a lot power issues. So you buy the nam runs? I am pretty close to the coast, looking forward to it, this is nuts!! I hope it pans out, if not I will try to live on lol

Frank_Wx wrote:In my opinion current radar suggests the storm wants to ride the coast rather than re-develop well east off the coast

Agreed Frank. Any chance you “ re-visit” your first call map before lunchtime? Maybe after the 12 z runs. Anyone have the HRRR. I thought it usually does a good job of showing the precip and radar inside of 24 hours.

@Frank - WSI has been using Deep Thunder from the summer hurricane season - Ventrice barks with it

This is awesome:
Operational models have already shifted about 50 miles closer
to LI with track of low pressure by late Thursday than 24 hrs
ago, with consensus track of a 955 to 960 mb low pressure
system tracking over or just se of the 40/70 lat/lon benchmark.
The exact phasing evolution will determine any additional
forecast track adjustment, with GEFS/ECMWF/SREF still showing at
least 150 miles of spread in members within 24-36 hrs. This
range of potential shift would have significant implication on
westward expanse of frontogenetically forced heavy snow banding,
and strong to damaging wind fields with this intense low. In
fact 06z NAM, has taken a significant shift westward from 00z
with its frontogenetic forcing, showing potential for 1 ft+ snow
across the entire area. For this reason, NHC will be doing a
reconnaissance flight and several dropsondes this
afternoon/evening off the Fl/SE US coast to better capture this
phasing and convection latent heat release in the models.

SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Need 12Z models to show the same or just a blip.

This storm so reminds me of the BDB and blizzard of 1983, 2016 where there was a meh for NYC and then within 12 hours of hitting things

Frank_Wx wrote:09z SREFS shifted west. Show a WNW lean and qpf increased

Very significant. This is the first run of the srefs that has me in the .5 inch area, before this it was always .2-.3 at best. After the NAM bonanza this is another nice trend west. Cautious optimism still, storms that get this deep seem to have a mind of their own.

NAM coming in now. Already major differences with the southern s/w. So far looks weaker on the 12z NAM run compared to 06z.

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM coming in now. Already major differences with the southern s/w. So far looks weaker on the 12z NAM run compared to 06z.

Well that would be a kick in the ass, but not totally unexpected either.

NAM has snow in coastal locations by tonight.