January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

rb924119 wrote:

algae888 wrote:also convection right now on radar is over land. not one model had that at 12z.

That's why they've been focusing on the wrong energy and have been so far east

every model today including ens. was west with the precip shield except the cmc and the nam which has flipped flopped the last few runs.

Check out Bastardis Raging Weather Bull at weatherbell. He is really emphasizing not getting caught up in the models. HE'S VERY BULLISH on his snowfall..

essexcountypete wrote:

Roger92 wrote:

Roger92 wrote:

gigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm.  How does that convert to inches of snow?

5-6" lol

2.5 mm in one inch.

Pretty sure Frank meant 12-15 centimeters. I sure hope he did

That's what I was thinking Pete because 12-15 mm is about a 1/2" Frank is trying to confuse us by going metric

jimv45 wrote:Rb I know Frank will update his map. Are you coming out with a map today?

Unfortunately, no. I actually am taking a break from forecasting (on that level) this season. One reason is because I lost a subscription to my all-time favorite forecasting site, and the other is that I've been devoting pretty much all of my free time to my project so I can finally get it done. It's taken me well beyond the date I originally intended, so I'm trying to just buckle down and get it done so I can actually have a summer and get back to actually forecasting next winter season with a renewed subscription ahaha

rb924119 wrote:

jimv45 wrote:Rb I know Frank will update his map. Are you coming out with a map today?

Unfortunately, no. I actually am taking a break from forecasting (on that level) this season. One reason is because I lost a subscription to my all-time favorite forecasting site, and the other is that I've been devoting pretty much all of my free time to my project so I can finally get it done. It's taken me well beyond the date I originally intended, so I'm trying to just buckle down and get it done so I can actually have a summer and get back to actually forecasting next winter season with a renewed subscription ahaha

I saw your PM. Will get back to you today.

12z EURO. Not the NAM but precip shield expanded west and H5 closes off. All positives. I would not choose globals for precip. Gets it down to 952mb!

GreyBeard wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

Roger92 wrote:

Roger92 wrote:

gigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm.  How does that convert to inches of snow?

5-6" lol

2.5 mm in one inch.

Pretty sure Frank meant 12-15 centimeters. I sure hope he did

That's what I was thinking Pete because 12-15 mm is about a 1/2" Frank is trying to confuse us by going metric

12mm = about .50" qpf

.50" qpf is about 5 inches of snow

DO WE ALL UNDERSTAND NOW, CLASS!

Frank_Wx wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

Roger92 wrote:

Roger92 wrote:

gigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm.  How does that convert to inches of snow?

5-6" lol

2.5 mm in one inch.

Pretty sure Frank meant 12-15 centimeters. I sure hope he did

That's what I was thinking Pete because 12-15 mm is about a 1/2" Frank is trying to confuse us by going metric

12mm = about .50" qpf

.50" qpf is about 5 inches of snow

DO WE ALL UNDERSTAND NOW, CLASS!

LOL Thanks Frank

Globals - EURO, GFS, UKMET - have nudged west and expanded their qpf field. Question becomes are these handling the dynamics/convection aspect of this storm well enough or are the short range/hi-res models leading the charge in that regard? I can't help but think back to that JAN 2016 storm when NAM outperformed globals with qpf. Not saying the set-up with these storms are similar but the convection aspect is there.

Cranky on Twitter is excited:

"Ya wanted it, ya got it.
Do we start to lift the cap off some totals? I "like" my pinned tweet from this AM but the system is quite wet, some models trending wetter, mentioned the 6-12" contour portion could come up. Maybe by 3-5pm period of evolve will allow prudent decision"

Frank_Wx wrote:

That's not terrible and it's only thru 18Z

For NYC 12z guidance:

NAM-0.7

Hi-res NAM-1.2

RGEM-0.40-0.45

HRDPS-0.60

CMC-0.30

GFS-0.40

UKMET- 0.55-0.6

EURO-0.40

SREFs-0.70

Frank_Wx wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

Roger92 wrote:

Roger92 wrote:

gigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm.  How does that convert to inches of snow?

5-6" lol

2.5 mm in one inch.

Pretty sure Frank meant 12-15 centimeters. I sure hope he did

That's what I was thinking Pete because 12-15 mm is about a 1/2" Frank is trying to confuse us by going metric

12mm = about .50" qpf

.50" qpf is about 5 inches of snow

DO WE ALL UNDERSTAND NOW, CLASS!

THAT'S NOT WHAT YOU SAID TEACHER . YOU SAID 12-15 MM OF SNOW. DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

Frank_Wx wrote:

This will definitely be updated later today. Final call snow map will be issued between 10-10:30 tonight. At the moment, leaning on higher totals across the board and introducing a 10"+ zone.

My “map”. NYC area and immediate NW 6-8”. NNJ Hudson Valley 4-8”. Jersey Shore 8-10”. LI 10-15” w to e

GreyBeard wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

Roger92 wrote:

Roger92 wrote:

gigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm.  How does that convert to inches of snow?

5-6" lol

2.5 mm in one inch.

Pretty sure Frank meant 12-15 centimeters. I sure hope he did

That's what I was thinking Pete because 12-15 mm is about a 1/2" Frank is trying to confuse us by going metric

12mm = about .50" qpf

.50" qpf is about 5 inches of snow

DO WE ALL UNDERSTAND NOW, CLASS!

THAT'S NOT WHAT YOU SAID TEACHER . YOU SAID 12-15 MM OF SNOW. DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

Frank_Wx wrote:For NYC 12z guidance:

NAM-0.7

Hi-res NAM-1.2

RGEM-0.40-0.45

HRDPS-0.60

CMC-0.30

GFS-0.40

UKMET- 0.55-0.6

EURO-0.40

SREFs-0.70

.6” avg NYC equals 9” snow

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jimv45 wrote:Rb I know Frank will update his map. Are you coming out with a map today?

Unfortunately, no. I actually am taking a break from forecasting (on that level) this season. One reason is because I lost a subscription to my all-time favorite forecasting site, and the other is that I've been devoting pretty much all of my free time to my project so I can finally get it done. It's taken me well beyond the date I originally intended, so I'm trying to just buckle down and get it done so I can actually have a summer and get back to actually forecasting next winter season with a renewed subscription ahaha

I saw your PM. Will get back to you today.

Ah!!! No worries, though, man, I figured that since you haven't been on here as much you've been busy with other things haha and if worse came to worst I'd just send you another one upon the completion of the project to request for next season aha......squeaky wheel gets the oil, you know

to Franks surrendering.

Also from Cranky:

"It's already special and the 1-3pm uptick is quite noticable on imagery. But wait until we get to the 3-6pm period. The acceleration of rate of development will continue to increase dramatically this afternoon and evening. CONSTANT evolution chase to adjust forecasts today."

I guess 00z models tonight will not have extra data

After looking at todays model runs here's my call: NYC westward into eastern half of NJ- 6-12, central LI east-12+, NW NJ, LHV-3-6. The one interesting development with the 12z runs is they have trended away from the subsidence issues west of the city. In response to that the precip shield has expanded back into PA. As you all know this is a very complex storm we're dealing with. High bust potential with this event. Me personally I've been done living and dying since this morning with the globals. From here on out its SR models, WV loops, and radars.

Hot

Everything looks really good.

The only way we're going to get a handle with this storm is of course radar, but also current low placement maps. From the looks of the current radar, its very NAM like.