Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:10 am

And that's your opinion, and that's totally fine! However, I just hope that you understand how close you REALLY are to have this being YOUR storm. If you look at the UKMET from tonight, that gives you YOUR storm. Only difference between it and the others is it closes the mid-level lows later, thus allowing for a further east track. How much later? SIX HOURS. That's how small the difference is between the interior cashing in, and you. But if that's your opinion, I completely respect that.

by **Math23x7** Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:35 am

0Z ECMWF is steadfast with the event happening mainly during the day and temperatures slightly above freezing. Not a great combination unless than snow rates are very high.

by **WeatherBob** Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:40 am

Hey Math, any maps of the surface? I am just concerned with the low level flow off the ocean and what thise winds are going to be doing. Sometimes it’s hard to judge from some of the maps unless you have the raw data from a particular point or city.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:43 am

Math23x7 wrote:0Z ECMWF is steadfast with the event happening mainly during the day and temperatures slightly above freezing. Not a great combination unless than snow rates are very high.

If you're on Twitter, take a look at @crankywxguy and his thoughts on why this storm is amped with far more cold air than the previous, allowing snow to the coast. I believe we will see SR guidance continue to hone in on high precip rates that'll thump, dump and accumulate quick region wide.

by **algae888** Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:27 am

6z nam slower to develop secondary. a little east. nice hit for our entire area. 6+ in for most of NJ a foot or more from about route 80 north including nyc metro and lower Hudson valley and most of LI.

by **algae888** Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:29 am

winter storm watch up for all of Upton's forecast area for 6-9" with locally up to a foot.

by **RJB8525** Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:29 am

Everyone's sleeping right now but Upton and Mt Holly put out winter storm watches

by **algae888** Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:34 am

so we have the nam, rgem ,gfs, and ukie vs. the euro and cmc. the latter gets the storm cranking to late so it is able to escape east and hit eastern N/E hard while the former gets it going sooner. probably we see a compromise which would put us all in a nice spot. it also looks like most of the heavy precip will fall from mid afternoon thru about midnight wens so stickage shouldn't be a problem. we shall see.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:40 am

I like were we stand for the coast and all of nj. A little east will bring the white gold to coastal plain

by **frank 638** Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:40 am

Winter storm watch has gone up for wed intowe'd night accumulation 6 to 9 inches possible foot I hope we go higher

by **frank 638** Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:44 am

AccuWeather has me for 2 to 4 inches of snow for wed while national weather service has me 6 to 9 inches of snow

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:55 am

Windshield wipers affect in full force gfs ticked east and so did rgem. Whole area still gets it good. But Definetly a better look for snow on the coastal plain

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:39 am

Wow 06z nam Godzilla!! 3km nam is is even more nuts. Wsw posted I was thinking tonight but I guess now lol.

by **Quietace** Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:44 am

I just cleaned this thread up.

1)If you have a issue with what is being posted (location specific, quality, or other issues), or how members are treating you, please contact a administrator or a moderator so we can correct the issue.

2)Given the storm threat is fairly close, please keep banter in the banter thread.

3)People are allowed to have their individual opinions, however if it is not storm related, please again keep it to the Banter thread.

Best Wishes,
Ryan

by **Radz** Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:48 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow 06z nam Godzilla!! 3km nam is is even more nuts. Wsw posted I was thinking tonight but I guess now lol. Yes let's all just enjoy what we have coming and not get caught up in Tiffy fights that wuite honestly sound like teenagers. Which we are not. Love ya all. We are all kinda kookie are we not?

Really like the Models this morning!! Looking great at this point. Limited service, still no power but love the threat- I'd say I'm a little nuts lol, and Monday to watch as well!

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:59 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow 06z nam Godzilla!! 3km nam is is even more nuts. Wsw posted I was thinking tonight but I guess now lol.

...Yet Bill Evans calling for 3-6'' for NYC metro. Go figure.

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:08 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow 06z nam Godzilla!! 3km nam is is even more nuts. Wsw posted I was thinking tonight but I guess now lol.
...Yet Bill Evans calling for 3-6'' for NYC metro. Go figure.

bah we good he will come up, I also think as I said last night SR has surprises in store in terms of showing possibly even more than nam shows right now. Once 3km gets in range I would not be surprised to see totals higher. Feeling like this is more of what we usually track, I was wondering where your posts were Al LOL, forgot your the wee hours man. Looking like we could add close to half of our snowfall this year in one storm.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:08 am

March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 8 5a9cfe10

Many EPS members are left of 0z EURO run.

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:11 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Many EPS members are left of 0z EURO run.

The Euro is on its own with how far east it is even of its own ensembles, do not think Euro is gonna catch this in time SR is gonna be the way to go.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:16 am

6z gefs came east March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 8 5a9d2210

by **Grselig** Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:18 am

Nws aggressive. 5-11 for me in Wayne (eastern Passaic)

by Guest Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:22 am

Solid storm incoming. I’ll post a map about 9:00 am

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:25 am

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Many EPS members are left of 0z EURO run.
The Euro is on its own with how far east it is even of its own ensembles, do not think Euro is gonna catch this in time SR is gonna be the way to go.

The EURO all winter has had an eastern bias. It will correct west. GEFS just went east. This is starting to look like a classic BM track. A lot of the forum gets hit good. I like a jackpot zone of 12+ from eastern half of northern Jersey thru the city to western half of LI. Go big or go home.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:54 am

Mt. Holly’s 6 am updated forecast is really bullish for the Shore:

Tuesday Night- Rain likely before 11pm, then rain and snow likely between 11pm and 1am, then snow likely after 1am.

Wednesday- Snow before 11am, New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday Night- all snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

These are just highlights. There was plenty of rain mentioned to lol! As far I’m concerned, I’ll take this present forecast and that banding that crushed the coast on the 06z NAM. LOTS of upside right now for the Shore, but we have to smell the rain on this one, maybe even feel it a bit first.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:14 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Mt. Holly’s 6 am updated forecast is really bullish for the Shore:

Tuesday Night- Rain likely before 11pm, then rain and snow likely between 11pm and 1am, then snow likely after 1am.

Wednesday- Snow before 11am, New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday Night- all snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

These are just highlights. There was plenty of rain mentioned to lol! As far I’m concerned, I’ll take this present forecast and that banding that crushed the coast on the 06z NAM. LOTS of upside right now for the Shore, but we have to smell the rain on this one, maybe even feel it a bit first.

I agree with you 100% And also I've been in many snow storms along the coast here in Northern Ocean County where you can smell the rain and we get clobbered with snow that's what this smells like to me

by **billg315** Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:25 am

To be clear (and I think I’ve said this already) I do think areas immediately along the coast have legit mixing issues mid-storm. Heck even as far west as my area may see sleet mix in. It’s a March storm not much you can do about that. But it is possible it stays all snow to the coast of things work out just right and I think it’s also likely the coast ends as snow either way. As for snow sticking, again this storm starts at 1 or 2 am. Low temp near freeezing Wed morning.There will be a base of snow (hopefully) before sun even comes up, and it will be fairly heavy intensity during the day, then continue after dark. That is actually ideal at this time of year if you have marginal temps. If it gets delayed and doesn’t start until after 7 or 8 am then I’ll be more concerned with it sticking, but then you’ll still have significant snow after dark Wed evening.
My bigger concern for accumulation right now may be sleet mixing in, or rain closer to coast.

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:33 am

NWS playing with two scenarios ATM, an all snow further east and a mix at the coast, snow inland.At least there is snow for all of us.The Long Range crew were spot on for early March.Frank,Mugs, Al, Doc, rb,Weatherbob and any others I missed....GREAT JOB!!!! You all saw this coming a few weeks ago.With all the variables in winter weather around here, this is incredible!!!

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