March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by WeatherBob on Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:34 pm

We all might be nerds and geeks but that guy on the video is a Dweeb.  He iIs the most confusing and incoherent meteorologist I have ever heard.  If you look at some of these precip totals he is talking about it seems the end date is March 12th.  You don’t even know what storm he is talking about.

Well in the dictionary a nerd is a dweeb, but you get my point with this guy! HAHA
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by Quietace on Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:51 pm

WeatherBob wrote:We all might be nerds and geeks but that guy on the video is a Dweeb.  He iIs the most confusing and incoherent meteorologist I have ever heard.  If you look at some of these precip totals he is talking about it seems the end date is March 12th.  You don’t even know what storm he is talking about.

Well in the dictionary a nerd is a dweeb, but you get my point with this guy! HAHA
I am about 99.9% sure he doesn't have a met degree....Some people us like to call themselves meteorologists.

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by WeatherBob on Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:54 pm

Quiet- your probably right! Maybe he can help Syos with his snow maps, HAHA! Well onto the storm at hand for us!
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:06 pm

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by Snow88 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:26 pm

GEFS show 3-6 for NYC and a lot more for interior areas

Members are really tight together but some are leaning left and getting very close to Long Island. It's an outlier now but I hope they trend east.
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by billg315 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:18 pm

Could be interesting timing on this. If the start delays a few hours many schools and businesses may open Wednesday. And while a lot of the heavy precip will be after 4 pm (so that will help snow accumulation chances at the back end) it looks like it could pick up in intensity earlier in the day. If it sticks the Wednesday evening commute could be an absolute nightmare.
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by amugs on Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:40 pm

Only 3 pages??
Chrips this storm has warning level criteria written all over and Godzilla potential to boot.
That guy in the video needs stop his pseudo portrayal of a met - so false and wrong.
The block is going to slow this up and give it a push west - 50/50, conflunce over head and the 700MB LP looks to be in a very good spot about 25 miles NW of the NYC metro region.
NAVY is fricking bomb - perfect look by this model at this range

NAVY ENS


RGEM just smokes us - need this to hold or improve LOL


SREFS HOLY WETNESS!!!!!!








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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by amugs on Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:45 pm

From DxSnow
Look how even on the GFS which is more tucked in than all guidance, how the COMPACT circulation means the northerly winds pull right into the center of the storm. This is why I’m not that worried about temperatures on the coast, should this storm produce to its potential...even with a close to the coast track. The compact scenario also narrows the radius of the “usual” banding rules with your position relative to the H5, H7, and surface circulations.


These northerly winds all pulling right into the circulation also lead to more frontogenesis.

NAM
Additionally, the NAM is actually less tucked in than the GFS, though it’s still pretty close to the coast, particularly with the dual LP center that forms to the west. And again, look how much northerly flow gets pulled right into the storm at 21z Wednesday. Perfect for cold, and perfect for a CCB.



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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by amugs on Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:49 pm

SREFS Plumes
Lga 6.54"
TTN 6.59
ISP 3.43”
EWR 6.77”

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by aiannone on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:13 pm

I’d assume with a Wednesday morning start time that watches would have to go up tmw afternoon if the threat of warning criteria snow still exisits
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by rb924119 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:21 pm

Can tell you right now NAM coming in like the GFS here. Heights higher than 18z along EC which means more amplified solution, IMO. Let's see.

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by aiannone on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:Can tell you right now NAM coming in like the GFS here. Heights higher than 18z along EC which means more amplified solution, IMO. Let's see.

How can it get any better than 18z lol?!!!
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by rb924119 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:23 pm

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Can tell you right now NAM coming in like the GFS here. Heights higher than 18z along EC which means more amplified solution, IMO. Let's see.

How can it get any better than 18z lol?!!!

Careful here, more amplified means closer to the coast......

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by aiannone on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Can tell you right now NAM coming in like the GFS here. Heights higher than 18z along EC which means more amplified solution, IMO. Let's see.

How can it get any better than 18z lol?!!!

Careful here, more amplified means closer to the coast......

shhhhhhh lol
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:26 pm

@crankywxguy:

"Our parent low is born in intense cold aloft. The trof that brings the disturbance that develops our 2ndary Miller-B coastal (nor'easter) has strong cold air packed in with it. Tight thermal gradients. It's a solid setup to produce to the coasts"

...I'm optimistic. Smile
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by rb924119 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:27 pm

Not gonna lie - this setup reminds of Stella lol Eerily similar, though we aren't talking amounts exceeding 40" with this system haha and don't shush me because of your poor assumption lmfao

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by rb924119 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:29 pm

BIG RUN INCOMING HERE I THINK. H5 trough SIGNIFICANTLY less positively tilted and heights still significantly higher along EC.......ohhhhh boyyyyyyy

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by amugs on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:31 pm

Holy Molly she is amped

Coast and Li maybe in trouble here- inland cruncher if she keeps it up - block needs to press


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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by aiannone on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:31 pm

precip moving in faster this run
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by amugs on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:32 pm

GOD DAM NAMMMMMMMMM - DON'T TUCK NAO PRESS COME ON YOU BIAG!!!!!




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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:33 pm

That map of qpf in MM that mugs posted has me 11.8 to 15.7 inches, where do I sign?
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by rb924119 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:34 pm

Interior gonna get Godzilla'd here. Easy. Coast is snow to rain back to snow.

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by rb924119 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:37 pm

IT'S COMING

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by track17 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:37 pm

Looks like a horrible run for us folks at the coast bring on spring at this point

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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:38 pm

Looks like I am just north of the RS line at hr 63, looking amped, are winds go be a issue with this one too? And will it be a heavy wet snow or more dry?
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Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

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