Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:........By the way when Frank posts about wave 1 leaving excess energy offshore that helps to fuel our nor’easter it is EXACTLY what I posted late last week!  I don’t get the science or analysis right that often but when I do you can bet I’m going to point it out.

Thanks for the thumbs up GUY

syosnow94 wrote:Frank or Alex....Any chance we start as sleet, or at least start before daybreak Wednesday?

Yes actually. Any precip that falls late Tuesday or early Wednesday could be as sleet for NYC S&E

Who’s taking a first crack at a map for this one?

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Frank or Alex....Any chance we start as sleet, or at least start before daybreak Wednesday?

Yes actually. Any precip that falls late Tuesday or early Wednesday could be as sleet for NYC S&E

I hope so. Thanks

Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s taking a first crack at a map for this one?

I’m already on it

Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s taking a first crack at a map for this one?

I'll have one tonight

Check out these trends on models.

EURO surface



GFS 500mb

I thought this was relevant in todays thread, even though I had posted it in the weather stats thread.

There are only eight snowfalls of 6 inches or greater after the spring equinox in New York City. Also interesting to note here there have been 30 snowfalls 6 inches or greater in the month of March in New York City but only one between March 22 and March 31 but seven from April 1 through April 13. Just a curious weird anomaly. If it does happen on Wednesday it is more or less a one in twenty-year occurrence to happen in spring in New York City.

The second thing to watch is if New York City, specifically Central Park, can receive three or more inches of snow on Wednesday they will surpass 30 inches on the season which would make it five years in a row of 30 or more inches of snow. This is happened only one other time in history back in the early 1880s. Considering that two of the last five meteorological winters have been among the top six warmest ever recorded that makes the snow streak even more extraordinary.

6 inch Spring Snowfalls in NYC

1.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915
2.....10.0.....April 13, 1875
3.......9.6.....April 6, 1982
4.......9.0.....March 22, 1967
5.......8.5.....April 1, 1924
6.......6.5.....April 5, 1944
7.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917
8.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938

Yellow. 6-10” snow   Briefly starting as a period of sleet
Green.  3-6” snow
Blue. 2-4” snow except CP who will somehow miraculously measure 8"
Red. C-2” snow.

Little red circle around NYC is area that may not accumulate due to Urban Heat Island

syosnow94 wrote:

Yellow. 6-10” snow   Briefly starting as a period of sleet
Green.  3-6” snow
Blue. 2-4” snow
Red. C-2” snow.

Little red circle around NYC is area that may not accumulate due to Urban Heat Island

The only thing I would disagree with here is you may be shortchanging the Hudson Valley. We should be in the upper 20s to around 30 even during the day so the day time should not have a significant impact on accumulations in this area. Even with lower QPF I'm thinking will do better than the 2 to 4 inches you show. You and most others did shortchange the interior on the last storm so let's see if it happens again. At this time it does appear more targeted towards areas south of 287 and more specifically right along I-95. We shall see it is fun to be tracking a fourth storm.

Opps I just sent a report by accident admin please disregard. Meant hit reply

When is this storm due to move in...what's the duration? Thanks

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Yellow. 6-10” snow   Briefly starting as a period of sleet
Green.  3-6” snow
Blue. 2-4” snow
Red. C-2” snow.

Little red circle around NYC is area that may not accumulate due to Urban Heat Island

The only thing I would disagree with here is you may be shortchanging the Hudson Valley. We should be in the upper 20s to around 30 even during the day so the day time should not have a significant impact on accumulations in this area. Even with lower QPF I'm thinking will do better than the 2 to 4 inches you show. You and most others did shortchange the interior on the last storm so let's see if it happens again. At this time it does appear more targeted towards areas south of 287 and more specifically right along I-95. We shall see it is fun to be tracking a fourth storm.

You're right. I went back and edited the map

The Shore seems to be riding high on this wave now...I hope it comes in. And even though there is a long way to go, it's a nice spot to be in for everyone now. The odds are really starting to favor a nice size hit for at least a good part of the area. I'm already thinking about whether my 3 kids will have school on Wednesday and whether I need to put up the crock pot Tuesday night.

dsvinos wrote:When is this storm due to move in...what's the duration? Thanks

looks like 11 pm Tuesday here in Monmouth county

Wow, check out the 12z NAM for wave 1 (Tuesday)



Wave 2 (Wednesday) is not out yet

The 12Z 12km NAM for the first wave. Very amped and north and if so and it verified what does it mean now for the second wave? It may not matter to CNJ and SNJ they do really well here.

2nd wave now coming into focus on the 12z NAM - unbelievable!!

Beautiful look at H5

Wave 1....so close to that beautiful blue. Wave 2....I'd lock in now for the guarantee.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Where did all the sleet come from? I didn't think mid levels would be an issue with this.

Central NJ has to watch for intense meso banding Tuesday with wave one.  







This is a beautiful look at H5 with the southern to SE flow.  

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Where did all the sleet come from? I didn't think mid levels would be an issue with this.

850mb temps begin to warm up during the day Wednesday. Could be snow to sleet/mix back to snow event for immediate coast if NAM had its way

Check out what happens though. As the 500mb low begins to pull away from the coast 850mb temps crash and all turn to snow

WOW CCB OVER THE AREA HOURS 54 to GOD KNOWS WHEN