2018 Hurricane Season

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Our own Armando Salvatore posted on another board and if he leaning then we watch 

Just adding my "2cents" to the discussion from observations as of late. Typically, we tend to look upstream for winter in regards to tracking, so why not apply that methodology here.... The 18z GFS pretty much represents the consensus of NWP (have checked CMC, GEFS, EPS). Two main areas I've been watching; 1. British Canada and 2. Midwest (Gorden remnants/ S/W troff). Notice initially right at the beginning of the loop how the trough off BC begins closer to the 150W meridian, and towards the latter end of the loop ends up towards 120W. Also take note of the orientation of the trough axis, and how it goes from a meridional look to one that is more positively tilted yielding a semi-zonal flow . This has a downstream effect because whereas runs dating back to Sept 1st or so, we saw a more retrograded type look of the ridge further back west where you have a weak steering flow, and thanks to the Coriolis effect, Florence can find that weakness pocket. However, because of this noticeable trend (?), we're seeing a "push" of everything eastward, including diabetic processes from the remnants of Gordon embedded within a shortwave trough, that influences that anomalous ridge over the NW Atlantic. In turn, we thus see rather strong ageostrophic confluence (highlighted in yellow) on the backside of the long wave trough and it reflects an impressive ~1030-1034mb surface high that can ultimately traverse quickly enough to mitigate that weakness area and critical inflection point. What I suppose I'm trying to convey is that via synoptic pattern wise, the trends aren't good meaning this threat has "legs

Oh boy, I know you listen to this guy, most of you all so heads up I guess.

J Man Gonna be some long days ahead tracking.....................

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Our own Armando Salvatore posted on another board and if he leaning then we watch 

Just adding my "2cents" to the discussion from observations as of late. Typically, we tend to look upstream for winter in regards to tracking, so why not apply that methodology here.... The 18z GFS pretty much represents the consensus of NWP (have checked CMC, GEFS, EPS). Two main areas I've been watching; 1. British Canada and 2. Midwest (Gorden remnants/ S/W troff). Notice initially right at the beginning of the loop how the trough off BC begins closer to the 150W meridian, and towards the latter end of the loop ends up towards 120W. Also take note of the orientation of the trough axis, and how it goes from a meridional look to one that is more positively tilted yielding a semi-zonal flow . This has a downstream effect because whereas runs dating back to Sept 1st or so, we saw a more retrograded type look of the ridge further back west where you have a weak steering flow, and thanks to the Coriolis effect, Florence can find that weakness pocket. However, because of this noticeable trend (?), we're seeing a "push" of everything eastward, including diabetic processes from the remnants of Gordon embedded within a shortwave trough, that influences that anomalous ridge over the NW Atlantic. In turn, we thus see rather strong ageostrophic confluence (highlighted in yellow) on the backside of the long wave trough and it reflects an impressive ~1030-1034mb surface high that can ultimately traverse quickly enough to mitigate that weakness area and critical inflection point. What I suppose I'm trying to convey is that via synoptic pattern wise, the trends aren't good meaning this threat has "legs

Oh boy, I know you listen to this guy, most of you all so heads up I guess.

J Man Gonna be some long days ahead tracking.....................

for sure getting my rest now show starts or ends Sunday Monday I think. What have people been say on storm2k?

jmanley32 wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Our own Armando Salvatore posted on another board and if he leaning then we watch 

Just adding my "2cents" to the discussion from observations as of late. Typically, we tend to look upstream for winter in regards to tracking, so why not apply that methodology here.... The 18z GFS pretty much represents the consensus of NWP (have checked CMC, GEFS, EPS). Two main areas I've been watching; 1. British Canada and 2. Midwest (Gorden remnants/ S/W troff). Notice initially right at the beginning of the loop how the trough off BC begins closer to the 150W meridian, and towards the latter end of the loop ends up towards 120W. Also take note of the orientation of the trough axis, and how it goes from a meridional look to one that is more positively tilted yielding a semi-zonal flow . This has a downstream effect because whereas runs dating back to Sept 1st or so, we saw a more retrograded type look of the ridge further back west where you have a weak steering flow, and thanks to the Coriolis effect, Florence can find that weakness pocket. However, because of this noticeable trend (?), we're seeing a "push" of everything eastward, including diabetic processes from the remnants of Gordon embedded within a shortwave trough, that influences that anomalous ridge over the NW Atlantic. In turn, we thus see rather strong ageostrophic confluence (highlighted in yellow) on the backside of the long wave trough and it reflects an impressive ~1030-1034mb surface high that can ultimately traverse quickly enough to mitigate that weakness area and critical inflection point. What I suppose I'm trying to convey is that via synoptic pattern wise, the trends aren't good meaning this threat has "legs

Oh boy, I know you listen to this guy, most of you all so heads up I guess.

J Man Gonna be some long days ahead tracking.....................

for sure getting my rest now show starts or ends Sunday Monday I think. What have people been say on storm2k?

They are tracking like everyone else with every theory as why it will miss and why it will hit.

I watched Bernie's Video, it makes sense what he said it will miss the connection to the trough that would have taken it OTS, then the next thing to watch is the position of the Ridge. Going to be interesting to say the least Monday will be the pregame for sure, Ill stock up on some cold ones and get ready for some sleepless nights.
On another note while it's fun to track we have to keep an eye on it as it approaches our back door.

Wow, cone shifted even further south, I dont think this is going OTS boys and girls

a little weaker but thats prolly only temporary.

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Our own Armando Salvatore posted on another board and if he leaning then we watch 

Just adding my "2cents" to the discussion from observations as of late. Typically, we tend to look upstream for winter in regards to tracking, so why not apply that methodology here.... The 18z GFS pretty much represents the consensus of NWP (have checked CMC, GEFS, EPS). Two main areas I've been watching; 1. British Canada and 2. Midwest (Gorden remnants/ S/W troff). Notice initially right at the beginning of the loop how the trough off BC begins closer to the 150W meridian, and towards the latter end of the loop ends up towards 120W. Also take note of the orientation of the trough axis, and how it goes from a meridional look to one that is more positively tilted yielding a semi-zonal flow . This has a downstream effect because whereas runs dating back to Sept 1st or so, we saw a more retrograded type look of the ridge further back west where you have a weak steering flow, and thanks to the Coriolis effect, Florence can find that weakness pocket. However, because of this noticeable trend (?), we're seeing a "push" of everything eastward, including diabetic processes from the remnants of Gordon embedded within a shortwave trough, that influences that anomalous ridge over the NW Atlantic. In turn, we thus see rather strong ageostrophic confluence (highlighted in yellow) on the backside of the long wave trough and it reflects an impressive ~1030-1034mb surface high that can ultimately traverse quickly enough to mitigate that weakness area and critical inflection point. What I suppose I'm trying to convey is that via synoptic pattern wise, the trends aren't good meaning this threat has "legs

Oh boy, I know you listen to this guy, most of you all so heads up I guess.

J Man Gonna be some long days ahead tracking.....................

for sure getting my rest now show starts or ends Sunday Monday I think. What have people been say on storm2k?

They are tracking like everyone else with every theory as why it will miss and why it will hit.

I watched Bernie's Video, it makes sense what he said it will miss the connection to the trough that would have taken it OTS, then the next thing to watch is the position of the Ridge. Going to be interesting to say the least Monday will be the pregame for sure, Ill stock up on some cold ones and get ready for some sleepless nights.
On another note while it's fun to track we have to keep an eye on it as it approaches our back door.  

Oh for sure, if this thing is a tanking cat 4/5 and nearing the east coast or even near the area, it will be a WCS, far worse than Sandy. Which is just unimaginable.

Umm, yikes. (Per latest NHC discussion)

It appears that a mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern Atlantic in a few days will likely miss Florence, with
the only perceivable effects on the hurricane being a decrease in
forward speed. The net result is that the model guidance continues
to trend westward at long range, and the official forecast follows
suit, lying just north of the model consensus in deference to the
ECMWF deterministic model and ensemble mean.

Bermuda needs to start watching this they are in the cone and into the wind percentile of 30% already!

SoulSingMG wrote:Umm, yikes. (Per latest NHC discussion)

It appears that a mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern Atlantic in a few days will likely miss Florence, with
the only perceivable effects on the hurricane being a decrease in
forward speed.  The net result is that the model guidance continues
to trend westward at long range, and the official forecast follows
suit, lying just north of the model consensus in deference to the
ECMWF deterministic model and ensemble mean.

Holy crap! For them to say that NOW is BIG, so are they saying the Euro track may be right?

If the media gets ahold of that the hype will go into super hype mode.

soul i do not see that in the discussion do you have the link?

0z GFS a bit further north at hr 102, but the ridge is building in, so should start to move quicker off to the WNW

Further north and stronger at hr 126, definitely not a good run for Bermuda

Hr 150, not a good look with that blocking

Yo this is go make a direct hit on the area as a cat 5! That's doomsday not wcs.

jmanley32 wrote:soul i do not see that in the discussion do you have the link?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/060250.shtml

Sanchize06 wrote:Hr 150, not a good look with that blocking

Does that mean it would push that storm closer to coast

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Hr 150, not a good look with that blocking

Does that mean it would push that storm closer to coast

yes and its closing in but looks like it may stay just east. But we had va now new England so anywhere in there if she does it. That a historic block there.

Tx jman

Turns NE just in time, but wow. Shows what a long week it's going to be and how a few miles north or south it gets and what a slightly stronger or weaker ridge can do

Sanchize06 wrote:Turns NE just in time, but wow. Shows what a long week it's going to be and how a few miles north or south it gets and what a slightly stronger or weaker ridge can do

the fact that a sub 930mb storm gets that close that we even get the outer bands which are ts force has me on my toes almost. Need few more days.

Annd she stalls. This still would be awful for the coast
The ocean would be insane.

CMC goes into NC and ICON is somewhat similar to the GFS, but comes closer to the coast.

Another thing that is interesting with these runs is how the strength of Florence affects the track. When you look at the CMC, you can see it's very weak, 984mb, as a result the strong ridge just forces it west into NC, doesn't get very far north. The GFS is the other extreme, it's in the 920-930mb range and as a result, it gets further north, but breaks down the ridge in time to turn east. The middle models in strength like the 12z EURO and 0z ICON with 950-960mb are the ones that come NW and make very close passes at our coast.

Unexpected was the intensification to major hurricane status, however, as expected Florence is now being affected by the mod-strong wind shear to her north, and the somewhat divergent air aloft on the southern half of the system.  The result is seen by all of the convection located in the north and NE quadrants.  This has caused some weakening overnight.  Current estimated max sustained winds are at 100kts(115mph) with additional weakening expected.    






In the modeling at least it is beginning to appear more and more likely that the system will miss the first connection OTS.  You can see in the image below in the upper left corner Gordons remnants aid in pumping the ridging out ahead of it through diabetic processes as mentioned by Armando's write up Mugsy posted above.  The SSTA support such a process basically reconnecting the ridging in the NE Atlantic with the NW Atlantic effectively trapping Florence beneath it steering it westward.  







Now be careful.  First:  A missed connection is still not a foregone conclusion although becoming less likely.  
Second: If Florence misses the first bus an EC landfall is still not guaranteed. It is still possible that the strength of the system combined with other factors I don't have time to get into may cause an eroding of the western flank of the ridge such that she stalls and or turns north before making landfall and gets lifted out with the next passing trough.  That said this scenario would still end up too close for comfort.  And of course a direct EC landfall is also entirely plausible.  

We will know if the first bus is going to pick up Flornece pretty darn soon...by Sunday or so +/- 12-24hrs with definitive confidence.  soooooooo

WE TRACK!!!!!

This is annoying lol I wanna know what's gonna happen lol. I see nhc now has her below cat 3 till Sunday that's a bit longer than thought. What are thoughts on the last second turn away from ec that the models seem to depict? Oh 384 hrs gfs Helene hits us lol

Based on some quick and dirty analysis this morning, I actually really like the way the EURO Op looks with regard to its track of Florence - a North Carolina landfall (or very nearly), likely along the Outer Banks, with a run up the coast (or very nearly offshore) before curving back out to sea near our latitude. I think a more southerly track, similar, although slightly further north than the UKMET, looks good to start based on the combination of SST anomalies and their orientation/interplay with the North Atlantic ridge simultaneously with additional diabatic heat release feeding into the ridge from the restrengthening storm itself. However, I like the prognostication of the GEFS with regard to the trough cutting beneath blocking over central/eastern North America. I think that will be able to maintain a bit more intensity and get further east than what the GEM/EURO Ensembles currently show based on how the global setup currently looks, which would allow for a last-minute attempt at a full recurve, as climatology would suggest. Remember, these storms like to head where the trough is going, NOT where it "is". That's my preliminary thinking, reasoning, and track outlook, at least at this juncture.

Imo if she becomes a cat 5 I think it's ots weaker storm better shot at east coast

skinsfan1177 wrote:Imo if she becomes a cat 5 I think it's ots weaker storm better shot at east coast

I agree. I think if it's as strong as the GFS suggests in the 920mb range, it's more north and breaks down the ridge and turns OTS before reaching the coast. CMC and EURO showing landfall makes sense because a weaker system should be forced more west by the ridge