Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event

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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:55 pm

Current radar. Steady snow over Central PA moving east. If this held together as it moved east maybe some areas get a preliminary shot of some snow earlier than expected. Now modeling shows this eventually drying out over NJ before snow starts up again tomorrow AM but worth keeping an eye on.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:11 pm

Temp here is down to 33* after a high of 37*. That is a good start toward my projected low of 27*. Maybe it will even get a little below that.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:18 pm

billg315 wrote:Current radar. Steady snow over Central PA moving east. If this held together as it moved east maybe some areas get a preliminary shot of some snow earlier than expected. Now modeling shows this eventually drying out over NJ before snow starts up again tomorrow AM but worth keeping an eye on.
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That will hit a brick wall soon enough unfortunately. Here's hoping that it breaks through earlier than expected.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:22 pm

Yeah, I don't expect it to last long, but I think (and some of the short range models show this) it could survive for a short time and maybe put down a coating in spots before dying out. At least thats a head start on accumulation tomorrow. Every bit would help with this system.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:27 pm

That area has reached Philadelphia and they are currently reporting snow, so where it gets to, it is reaching the ground.
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Post by amugs on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:18 pm

Snow Halo over moon tonight peeps - IT'S COMING!!!!!!!!!!

UKIE for $1000 Alex - Barney Alert here LOL!

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Post by SENJsnowman on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:21 pm

It reached the coast...just barely flaking, but it also just got here...very early. We'll see if this early precip shield now builds north...

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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:31 pm

I’ll know soon if this leading wave of snow will get to me. It’s just about 20 miles west of me. Pretty solid over PA. Would be nice to get some snow ahead of schedule even if it doesn’t hold together.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:38 pm

Dew point here is 19*. That’s good for snow, but maybe indicates the air is a little too dry here yet.
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Post by SENJsnowman on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:43 pm

billg315 wrote:Dew point here is 19*. That’s good for snow, but maybe indicates the air is a little too dry here yet.

Bill, I think that's what's happening here...good radar, very light snow. Dew point is 25 and temp is 35. Don't really know how that all works just yet, but I think we need about an hour of virga to saturate the air or something?

Anyway, this is here like 4-8 hrs early on the south side of town...hopefully that's a good sign for everyone!

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:45 pm

billg315 wrote:I’ll know soon if this leading wave of snow will get to me. It’s just about 20 miles west of me. Pretty solid over PA. Would be nice to get some snow ahead of schedule even if it doesn’t hold together.
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Likely too early to say for sure but might be breaking apart right over me. At the moment at least.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:48 pm

We shall see. Hey, I’ll take some virga now if it helps moisten up the atmosphere so we don’t have to fight that battle at 7 am tomorrow. Lol
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Post by aiannone on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:51 pm

Expecting 5-8" here in BGM before sleet and ZR changeover tmw afternoon. Current temp in Binghamton: 32 Long Island: 30.0
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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:53 pm

aiannone wrote:Expecting 5-8" here in BGM before sleet and ZR changeover tmw afternoon. Current temp in Binghamton: 32     Long Island: 30.0
You’re in a good spot for this. I think from NW NJ and the Poconos to the north and west will do really well with snow totals from this.
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Post by aiannone on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:02 pm

billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Expecting 5-8" here in BGM before sleet and ZR changeover tmw afternoon. Current temp in Binghamton: 32     Long Island: 30.0
You’re in a good spot for this. I think from NW NJ and the Poconos to the north and west will do really well with snow totals from this.

Ehh im hoping. Actually tho, the further west you go the quicker the changeover to sleet will be. This is my point click

Tuesday: Snow before 10am, then snow and sleet between 10am and 1pm, then freezing rain and sleet after 1pm. High near 31. Southeast wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 4 inches.

Tuesday Night: Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then snow likely. Low around 27. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:06 pm

The snow north of Trenton doesn't want to cross the Delaware. Wish Pennsylvania drivers would do the same. I think they get their driver's licenses from the bottom of a box of Cracker Jacks.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:09 pm

aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Expecting 5-8" here in BGM before sleet and ZR changeover tmw afternoon. Current temp in Binghamton: 32     Long Island: 30.0
You’re in a good spot for this. I think from NW NJ and the Poconos to the north and west will do really well with snow totals from this.

Ehh im hoping. Actually tho, the further west you go the quicker the changeover to sleet will be. This is my point click

Tuesday: Snow before 10am, then snow and sleet between 10am and 1pm, then freezing rain and sleet after 1pm. High near 31. Southeast wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 4 inches.

Tuesday Night: Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then snow likely. Low around 27. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible.
Yes but I think your snow will be heavier while you have it.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:12 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:The snow north of Trenton doesn't want to cross the Delaware. Wish Pennsylvania drivers would do the same. I think they get their driver's licenses from the bottom of a box of Cracker Jacks.

Yeah I think the air over us is still somewhat dry so it’s having a tough time breaking through. But that isn’t unexpected. This is way early for this system.
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Post by amugs on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:20 pm

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 7 StormTotalSnowWeb1

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 7 ?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_154993783151112&key=e1e7dc862af11f29652fc542d68928ac&libId=js14u0af0102n0l7000MAcj3kahn&loc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Ftopic%2F1578-overrunning-and-thump-of-snow-210-212%2F%3Fpage%3D38&v=1&out=https%3A%2F%2Fs3.amazonaws.com%2F33andrain%2Fmonthly_2019_02%2FStormTotalIceFcst.png.e011f7459cdb32e6a384d0f36d935848.png&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain

How we aren't under a winter storm warning yet in NNJ here is beyond me with their latest.
Anyway, my school. Or my sons have made the call yet MAKE THE CALL!!

WAAA are always ahead of schedule peeps said it Sunday at my friends wedding. Many of us will wake up to a white ground and white gold flying.

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Post by aiannone on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:23 pm

Currently no school closings listed yet on Long Island or in Binghamton
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Post by billg315 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:25 pm

I think many districts in NNJ are going to pull the trigger at the last minute on this. They’ll check the situation at 5 am and if the forecast hasn’t changed overnight, they’ll close.
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Post by Smitty623 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:26 pm

SENJ, when do you think the heaviest snows will come through our area?

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Post by hyde345 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:26 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:The snow north of Trenton doesn't want to cross the Delaware. Wish Pennsylvania drivers would do the same. I think they get their driver's licenses from the bottom of a box of Cracker Jacks.

Massholes are the worst.
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Post by SENJsnowman on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:40 pm

Smitty623 wrote:SENJ, when do you think the heaviest snows will come through our area?

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Smitty, I'm not sold on tonight for us yet. But, if we do get a steady accumulating snow, the heaviest stuff should be late morning, just before the change over. In best case, we get a bit more of a thump sooner, maybe by 1 or 2 am, and a bit later of a change over, maybe 9 or 10 am, and we could pull down another 3-4", and then go basically straight to rain.

More likely I think is we don't squeeze a whole lot of snow out the sky tonight and the change to rain happens earlier.

TWC is going all schizo, changing its forecast every hour from no snow to accumulating 2-4" (either 1" tonight and 1-3" tomorrow am, or vice versa).


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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:41 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:It reached the coast...just barely flaking, but it also just got here...very early. We'll see if this early precip shield now builds north...

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What was your final tally from last night/this morning SENJ?
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