My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Vinnydula on Sun May 19, 2019 9:06 pm

Summer outlook can be found here:



http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

***Scroll down for temperature/pcpn departure forecast details and maps, as well as 90F day forecast.

NJ map of total snowfall for the 2018-19 winter:



http://www.lightinthestorm.com/nj-snowfall



Comments and/or inquiries are appreciated.

Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 693
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon May 20, 2019 7:49 am

Good write up Tom. Getting ready for a hot summer. Opened up my pool over the weekend and already purchased a new AC unit. Any early thoughts with winter 2019/20?
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1586
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 53
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon May 20, 2019 8:11 am

Thanks Tom! CPC also predicting hot and wet summer, I was hoping all the rain would be done after the spring... Mad

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      25.10"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 3962
Reputation : 42
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 57
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by frank 638 on Mon May 20, 2019 5:01 pm

Hey Tom I just want to say thank you for your summer outlook. I just hope this summer will not turn out to be like last summer because it was very humid

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1948
Reputation : 24
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 36
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Isotherm on Mon May 20, 2019 9:20 pm

Thanks all for the comments. And yes, I don't anticipate months on end of 70F dew points akin to last year, although periods of very high dew points are likely.
Isotherm
Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 225
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 29
Location : Colts Neck, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by docstox12 on Tue May 21, 2019 5:26 am

Thanks Tom for taking the time to prepare this report and posting it.The snowfall total maps for many years are excellent!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6689
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 68
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Isotherm on Tue May 21, 2019 2:04 pm

Thanks for the kind words!
Isotherm
Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 225
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 29
Location : Colts Neck, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri May 24, 2019 1:48 pm

Thank you Tom.


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18678
Reputation : 277
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Cranford, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by dkodgis on Thu May 30, 2019 2:42 pm

Tom, is there a snow map for NY ?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 957
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Isotherm on Thu May 30, 2019 3:38 pm

dkodgis wrote:Tom, is there a snow map for NY ?

Unfortunately, I only produce maps for NJ each season. Doing two states would be quite a tall task. But I encourage someone from NY to begin making them.
Isotherm
Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 225
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 29
Location : Colts Neck, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Isotherm on Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:51 am

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1195





VERIFICATION

Temperature Departure Forecast JJA: +1 to +2

NYC/NJ Local Station Departures:

NYC: +1.2
LGA: +2
EWR: +1.3
JFK: +1.2
BDR: +1.9


ISP: +2.1

Mean of all stations: +1.6

This fell directly within the target range. The notion that June would be near normal with increasing heat and humidity in July and August was correct, as well as the forecast for at least one major heat spell.

Precipitation Forecast for JJA was wetter than normal. Results:

NYC: +0.49″
EWR: +2.1″
LGA: +0.53″
JFK: +0.75″
BDR: +0.92″
ISP: -0.35″

Mean of all stations = +0.74″ wetter than normal

This was a wet and active T-storm season overall, as anticipated in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

90 degree day projections / actual:

90 Degree Day Projections / actual through 9/2/2019:

BOS: 14 / 14 error: 0
NYC: 26 / 14 error: +12
LGA: 30 / 23 error: +7
EWR: 33 / 24 error: +9
PHL: 36 / 31 error: +5
DCA: 45 / 52 error: -7
RDU: 52 / 61 error: -9



Total error: +17 [overall, slightly warmer than anticipated]

This was a very good forecast considering the high level of difficulty; the numbers were virtually on target for the Mid-Atlantic and New England. It was slightly too many for the PHL-NYC corridor.

Summer Outlook 2019 Grade:

This will be considered a hit. The forecast was “A” locally. Including the nation-wide picture, the expectation for a very hot West Coast and Mid-atlantic/SE US was correct, and warmer than normal most other locations. The primary flaw was slightly cooler anomalies in the N/C Plains. The nationwide grade is therefore a B+.

The overall final grade is A-



image.thumb.png.4144bd7b4a5cdbbb2d8730f244f6fd8f.png




image.thumb.png.9084cad5d9de3312b542beb00b044d2c.png
Isotherm
Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 225
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 29
Location : Colts Neck, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:34 am

Tom,

Great work as usual and thank you for sharing.
Here's to a good solid winter my man!!

Mugs

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10291
Reputation : 158
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by algae888 on Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:54 am

Tom if you added in the 89° days in our local area you would have hit the 90 degree day Mark almost to a T.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4963
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 57
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by algae888 on Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:56 am

Tom if you added in the 89° days in our local area you would have hit the 90 degree day Mark almost to a T. Also it was a very tolerable summer in regards to dew points. we had many days in the upper 80s and low 90s with dew points in the 50s to low 60s and was definitely more tolerable than last summer thanks again for sharing your thoughts
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4963
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 57
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Isotherm on Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:58 pm

Thanks mugs and algae. Looking forward to the winter outlook period.
Isotherm
Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 225
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 29
Location : Colts Neck, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by frank 638 on Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:35 pm

tom i hope you had a great summer i cannot believe its over already .thankyou so much for ur summer outlook i can not wait for the winter outlook have a great weekend

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1948
Reputation : 24
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 36
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by docstox12 on Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:50 pm

Excellent Tom!!!!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6689
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 68
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Isotherm on Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:50 pm

Thanks frank and doc as well. Hope all had a good summer here, too. Hard to believe the cool season is already upon us.
Isotherm
Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 225
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 29
Location : Colts Neck, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:07 pm

Nice work my friend!

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18678
Reputation : 277
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Cranford, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Isotherm on Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:54 pm

Thanks Frank!
Isotherm
Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 225
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 29
Location : Colts Neck, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by rb924119 on Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:16 pm

Tom, I don’t know how many other ways I can say that your work is remarkable, you did a fantastic job, etc., but I’m getting tired of using the same phrases over and over when reviewing your forecasts and verifications lmaoooo seriously, though, awesome job!! Also, I’m highly anticipating your Winter thoughts, as the progression of multiple factors has me a bit excited, though admittedly, I am a mere novice when it comes to seasonal outlooks haha I know last winter beat up on a lot of people, but I know you hardly ever make the same mistake twice lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4906
Reputation : 181
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Isotherm on Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:45 pm

rb924119 wrote:Tom, I don’t know how many other ways I can say that your work is remarkable, you did a fantastic job, etc., but I’m getting tired of using the same phrases over and over when reviewing your forecasts and verifications lmaoooo seriously, though, awesome job!! Also, I’m highly anticipating your Winter thoughts, as the progression of multiple factors has me a bit excited, though admittedly, I am a mere novice when it comes to seasonal outlooks haha I know last winter beat up on a lot of people, but I know you hardly ever make the same mistake twice lol


Ray: thanks for those nice comments! Believe me, I spent a ton of time analyzing, post mortem, last winter, and it turned out to be [at least from my perspective] one of those situations in which I said to myself, "Wow - I cannot believe I didn't see this." And thereafter, kicking myself for missing it...the perfectionist in me. Hindsight is 20/20, but I really think I should have had last winter, after review. But it did help significantly clarify some aspects of the soup of indicators, and further refine my methodology. So in that way, I hope you're right and that type of mistake will not be repeated!
Isotherm
Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 225
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 29
Location : Colts Neck, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by rb924119 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:05 pm

Isotherm wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Tom, I don’t know how many other ways I can say that your work is remarkable, you did a fantastic job, etc., but I’m getting tired of using the same phrases over and over when reviewing your forecasts and verifications lmaoooo seriously, though, awesome job!! Also, I’m highly anticipating your Winter thoughts, as the progression of multiple factors has me a bit excited, though admittedly, I am a mere novice when it comes to seasonal outlooks haha I know last winter beat up on a lot of people, but I know you hardly ever make the same mistake twice lol


Ray: thanks for those nice comments! Believe me, I spent a ton of time analyzing, post mortem, last winter, and it turned out to be [at least from my perspective] one of those situations in which I said to myself, "Wow - I cannot believe I didn't see this." And thereafter, kicking myself for missing it...the perfectionist in me. Hindsight is 20/20, but I really think I should have had last winter, after review. But it did help significantly clarify some aspects of the soup of indicators, and further refine my methodology. So in that way, I hope you're right and that type of mistake will not be repeated!

What was it that you missed? Or was it a culmination of minor things that added up as time went on? I’ll be honest and say that I was never able to read your verification on that Sad

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4906
Reputation : 181
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Isotherm on Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:33 am

rb924119 wrote:
Isotherm wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Tom, I don’t know how many other ways I can say that your work is remarkable, you did a fantastic job, etc., but I’m getting tired of using the same phrases over and over when reviewing your forecasts and verifications lmaoooo seriously, though, awesome job!! Also, I’m highly anticipating your Winter thoughts, as the progression of multiple factors has me a bit excited, though admittedly, I am a mere novice when it comes to seasonal outlooks haha I know last winter beat up on a lot of people, but I know you hardly ever make the same mistake twice lol


Ray: thanks for those nice comments! Believe me, I spent a ton of time analyzing, post mortem, last winter, and it turned out to be [at least from my perspective] one of those situations in which I said to myself, "Wow - I cannot believe I didn't see this." And thereafter, kicking myself for missing it...the perfectionist in me. Hindsight is 20/20, but I really think I should have had last winter, after review. But it did help significantly clarify some aspects of the soup of indicators, and further refine my methodology. So in that way, I hope you're right and that type of mistake will not be repeated!

What was it that you missed? Or was it a culmination of minor things that added up as time went on? I’ll be honest and say that I was never able to read your verification on that Sad

More along the lines of misinterpreting a couple macro-scale factors [though this is my own personal hypothesis]. Plus, the activated MJO, which seems to be a function of SSW forcing, to put it succinctly.
Isotherm
Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 225
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 29
Location : Colts Neck, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by rb924119 on Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:24 pm

Isotherm wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Isotherm wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Tom, I don’t know how many other ways I can say that your work is remarkable, you did a fantastic job, etc., but I’m getting tired of using the same phrases over and over when reviewing your forecasts and verifications lmaoooo seriously, though, awesome job!! Also, I’m highly anticipating your Winter thoughts, as the progression of multiple factors has me a bit excited, though admittedly, I am a mere novice when it comes to seasonal outlooks haha I know last winter beat up on a lot of people, but I know you hardly ever make the same mistake twice lol


Ray: thanks for those nice comments! Believe me, I spent a ton of time analyzing, post mortem, last winter, and it turned out to be [at least from my perspective] one of those situations in which I said to myself, "Wow - I cannot believe I didn't see this." And thereafter, kicking myself for missing it...the perfectionist in me. Hindsight is 20/20, but I really think I should have had last winter, after review. But it did help significantly clarify some aspects of the soup of indicators, and further refine my methodology. So in that way, I hope you're right and that type of mistake will not be repeated!

What was it that you missed? Or was it a culmination of minor things that added up as time went on? I’ll be honest and say that I was never able to read your verification on that Sad

More along the lines of misinterpreting a couple macro-scale factors [though this is my own personal hypothesis]. Plus, the activated MJO, which seems to be a function of SSW forcing, to put it succinctly.
ahhh ok. And yeah, the MJO definitely messed up a lot of our winter. But over on “another forum” I remember discussion that the MJO pulse was the precursor to the Stratospheric evolution......is that the case, or is there just a correlation without a clear causation?

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4906
Reputation : 181
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map) Empty Re: My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum