Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:36 pm

Models are hinting we may see our first snow of the season this weekend or early next week. This falls in line with the time range I felt our pattern will change to colder than normal. For the possible storm on the 9th, the PNA and EPO will be in our favor but the GFS is not showing a phase with our northern and southern jets. No phase means a very sloppy storm bringing a cold rain or mix to the coast with some inland snow, while a phase could mean a significant winter storm for the area.

I will have more on this later and the other threat near the 12th.

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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:12 pm

Euro says you're on crack GFS but the GEFS agree so the GSF is an outlier so far even though it showed this in the LR last week.

Eye candy for sure 12 Z euro
Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  Image.png.cc380e3fc51a679beccc52840f4deda6

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:28 pm

My friend from work mentioned that news 12 already talking bout this. They must be going by the Euro cuz they said Thurs/Fri and frank say Sat. Please keep us posted we have plans to go to NJ Sat, would prefer during week of course, oh wait I have the 8th off already.
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:36 pm

Nuts its Thursday Friday true GEFS are on board Snow in dem hills for sure, coast and LI and SNJ not so sure but I 80 N looks more likely for some white gold action
Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  5dbf70e9c256f

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Post by algae888 on Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:40 am

Here is uptons disco.....

Wintertime complexities then begin to emerge in the forecast for
Thursday and Friday. The GFS brings in a strong cold front, while
the ECMWF and GEM develop a much stronger system along the frontal
boundary. WPC continues to weight their forecast towards the
ECMWF/GEM solution, and we will do the same. That doesn`t however
remove the uncertainty. As a result, probabilities were capped at 50
percent. If the scenario of the ECMWF does materialize, the exact
track of the low then becomes an issue as well. The current progged
track would put ern and srn areas primarily in the rain, with a snow
threat north and west. The system will have a sufficient amount of
cold air to work with however, so sely changes in track would bring
some snow to other portions of the area. The forecast therefore
indicates a chance for rain or snow for all of the area except for
the ocean with this system. CONSALL was generally used for
temperatures through the period. The GFS solution would result in
some fairly light rain with the front, then perhaps a few flakes
behind it.
The weekend then looks dry and much below normal on Saturday, with
temperatures swinging up to perhaps near normal again briefly on
Sunday. Another wintry system may impact the area during the
beginning of next week.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:01 am

So al sounds like Westchester won't see snow Friday? Is there a way we could see snow? Not surprising the 95 corridor in Nov. Doesn't see snow often though last year we saw 7 inches on the 17th. What did euro show last night? Cmc sure was eye candy yesterday but white plains 12.8 inches I'll believe it when I see it.
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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:03 am

Euro holding GFS delays the storm until Tuesday
Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  Img_2039

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Post by aiannone on Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:34 am

Gfs suppressed. Euro, north. A compromise between the two gives snow to the entire area. If the current euro holds, snow will be confined to far NW.
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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:02 am

aiannone wrote:Gfs suppressed. Euro, north. A compromise between the two gives snow to the entire area. If the current euro holds, snow will be confined to far NW.

If the current euro holds, snow will be confined to far NW - Alex it will snow from I80 North on the Euro.

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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:21 am

Being that I am now in Albany, this Thursday has the chance to be my first glance at how the Capital District handles the snow.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:48 pm

It is looking pretty slopping on Friday. Other than portions of CNY and NEPA I don't think we'll see a widespread snow event.

Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  Gfs_z500_vort_namer_16

The GFS shows a nice ridge spike in the west but look at how sheared out the 500mb energy is across the east. As mentioned, no phase means an unorganized system with warm mid-levels along the coast.

Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  Gfs_z500a_namer_16

This image nicely depicts the +NAO and lack of 50/50 blocking. Without the block we're seeing 500mb look real sloppy. So for Thursday night into Friday, expect rain for now with possible snow showers and maybe a 1-2" type of snow accumulation for higher elevations of NEPA/CNY.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:49 pm

That being said, the storm system for next Tuesday looks entirely different. Check out how much more Atlantic blocking there is on the GFS (look at the reds over Greenland). And the ridging out west is more poleward. This is a great look, for that reason I increased odds on the SCI from 5 to 10%.

Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  Gfs_z500a_namer_33

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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:31 pm

Just watched Bernie Rayno periscope.
Said storm should form over SE Kentucky/ Mid Tenn and move in an ENE direction.
Snows into NNJ coating to 1" and 3" plus for NWNJ, Western Passaic, Orange and up to Albany. Timing is crucial and GFS will come around to the Euro.
It will deepen as it head up towards NE.


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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:34 pm

EPS
Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  5dc0c931dbc37.png.3d3818b18de12dcc2266e3f436850e41

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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:08 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Being that I am now in Albany, this Thursday has the chance to be my first glance at how the Capital District handles the snow.

Well, the models tonight have trended far enough NW to give me rain here in Albany, lowering my chances of snow for later this week. We'll see what the scenario is like for early next week as we get closer.

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Post by docstox12 on Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:27 pm

NWS mentioning snow/rain mix Thursday night with .5 inch.Will be nice to see the first flakes.It's overdue up here, usually get flurries in October.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:15 pm

BOOM, next tuesday Euro with godzilla for some!! I find that hard to believe and it really winds up and gives NE and maine 2-3 ft! If it can get going earlier we could really be looking at quite a storm, 12z run.....WOW, with that ratio Frank doesnt like NYC area sees 16 inches ha!

Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  Ecmwf-18
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:22 pm

Good lord CMC went ape crazy.....3-4 ft parts central NY....
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Post by frank 638 on Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:32 pm

I’m glad to see it’s getting colder And we are not that far from winter please don’t hate me for saying this but I don’t wanted to snow next week. One reason because we still have a lot of leaves on the trees And number two every time it snows early Our winter is crappie

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Post by amugs on Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:44 pm

WOW pulling out the deep blue crayon
Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  EIp7sLlXkAAVmK5?format=jpg&name=small

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Post by amugs on Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:50 pm

Sick look on GEFS - deep trough and ridge up to russia on the worldly view - States snap shot
Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  7F00A26B-FE40-457A-AF54-48D01C12AEBA.thumb.png.ab9b7b9e6bfd4d3a21b1063395f07832

ANY STORM FORM UNDER THIS BLOCK ITS STUCK AND CUT OFF - THAT IS ONE SICK LOOK HERE
N EPO, POS PNA, N AO AND NAO DEEP TROUGH - COULD BE A RECORD SET UP FOR NOVEMBER
1 WEEK OUT I KNOW

Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_38

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Post by amugs on Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:52 pm

N&W
ON NAM
Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  Namconus_asnow_neus_29


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Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:22 am

Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  Gfs_ms11
Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?  Gfs_as11
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:36 am

Oh boy gfs is now on board with cmc and euro for next Tues. Still 7 days out but liking we have snow to track. It is a big concern to see double digit snow with leaves still on some trees luckily all these winds have taken most down.

just saw 00z euro ,i t was close but not much of a storm compared to gfs and cmc. I do not think we will know much until the end of the weekend.
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Post by docstox12 on Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:33 am

jmanley32 wrote:Oh boy gfs is now on board with cmc and euro for next Tues. Still 7 days out but liking we have snow to track. It is a big concern to see double digit snow with leaves still on some trees luckily all these winds have taken most down.

just saw 00z euro ,i t was close but not much of a storm compared to gfs and cmc.  I do not think we will know much until the end of the weekend.

Jman, good point on the leaves.
Up by me in the LHV, 90% of the leaves are down, but in mid Bergen County NJ, 60 or 70% of the trees still have leaves.That early october snowstorm we had 5 or 6 years ago resulted in widespread breaking of tree limbs everywhere aas a result of heavy,wet snow clinging to the remaining leaves.Another reason I don't like early heavy snow in October and November.I would prefer this possible snow next week to be in mid December.
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