January 18th Winter Storm Looms

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:38 pm

EURO!!! BIGGER PICTURE
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 5F2DF6B3-9125-4713-A4C4-F6F8CAE12D30.png.7e7768c31b2b30126e146971b8fe7aa2

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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:12 pm

@amugs wrote:GFS in the game too

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 1446779306_gfs-deterministic-ne-total_snow_kuchera-9532400JAN17WOW.png.38e3e852f7b32d78b35e260558759226

]

I'm at the Jersey Shore right where the 2nd darkest gray line goes over the coastline and out to sea. 1.5-2", which if it verifies is my best storm since last January when I measured 2.5"

The balancing act between hope and pessimism, maturity and petulance, caring and not caring...lol it's the new normal. But for today, I'm once again all in...

C'MON 1.5"!!!! We can do this!! Oh yeah followed instantly by 3-5 hours of steady rain. Great,...

Right, see what I mean? I can't get away from it. Oh well, ima get what I get and not get upset. All the hard work that goes into the tracking and forecasting of these storms is pretty intense, regardless of what happens imby. Thanks all- much appreciated!

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:44 pm

Models did the windshield wiper as they are swinging back to near the Mon and Tues runs for cold and snow. FINALLY A POSITIVE TREND!!

Folks let me remind yuo we are in a warm MJO phase 6 transitioning into a phase 7 so this is literally highway robbery.

I guess the ol' folklore saying is true - Winter Thunderstorms will bring winter snowstorms in ten days or less.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:52 pm

@amugs wrote:EURO!!! BIGGER PICTURE
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 5F2DF6B3-9125-4713-A4C4-F6F8CAE12D30.png.7e7768c31b2b30126e146971b8fe7aa2

NICE, Mugs, looks like that 3 to 5 is a lock as we get close to nowcast time.We will have a snowpack for a week anyway,LOL.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:48 pm

For once it does seem like the trend is our friend. I'm pretty pumped to get my biggest snowfall of the year: whether it be 3" or 5". No complaints here.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:48 pm

I guess I should be thrilled to get 3 inches maybe more. I am but it's sad to what winter has become. Hoping we overpetform a few inches.
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:55 pm

GFS keep bringing the heavier forcing further east each run.

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 Gfs14

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Post by HectorO on Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:22 pm

Last storm we got hit heavier in Bloomingdale. Paramus looked like a dusting, and we looked like a winter wonderland. Here's hoping for more this time around again.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:09 pm

Despite the very good trends today, Lee Goldberg is still saying 1-3 for NYC north and west. He said 3-6 inch amounts will be confined to NW of i-287. What gives??? Has he been looking at the model trends today?
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:14 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Despite the very good trends today, Lee Goldberg is still saying 1-3 for NYC north and west. He said 3-6 inch amounts will be confined to NW of i-287. What gives??? Has he been looking at the model trends today?

He's probably going with the idea of a warm tongue of air comes in. Models do show 800mb to be the area of concern. If that warm tongue is stronger than modeled, closer to 2", if not, i'd say 4". Need to see tomorrow how the 850's look and the wind directions. We shall see.

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:34 pm

Let's very conservative and always stays low until before the storm is about to start.
SB Storms and most of 13-14,14-15 he was saying low end totals and at midnight when it started he would up his totals. Good forecaster but frustrating at times.
Interesting cause they ride the GFS and EURO and they aint showing 1-3.
He rides the warmicist train along with other TV mets.
Bernie calling for 3-6" N & W of I95 .

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:14 pm

Nam is colder and snowier this run!
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:18 pm

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 Bd9e4110
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:28 pm

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 Fe60a510
NAM 3K looks better as well!
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:30 pm

That actually looks like a lot less in some places, still about 2-4 for me.
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Post by hyde345 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:30 pm

And its pretty damn cold tonight. 14/-4 right now.
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Post by Zhukov1945 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:32 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 Fe60a510
NAM 3K looks better as well!

No idea if 3K or 12K has born itself out better in practice, but the 3K map at least looks more plausible, totals aside.
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Post by hyde345 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:38 pm

@Zhukov1945 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 Fe60a510
NAM 3K looks better as well!

No idea if 3K or 12K has born itself out better in practice, but the 3K map at least looks more plausible, totals aside.

Exactly what I was going to say. 3K looks very reasonable.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:55 pm

To end any confusion the 12k Nam map I posted does not include sleet. The 3k shows snow & sleet. TT shows a 12k map with snow & sleet which I currently can't post. Its better than the 3k version.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:01 pm

January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 0fe2ab10
Here's the 12k NAM clown map...
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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:01 pm

At least here in Albany I likely won't have to worry about mixing issues Wink

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Post by hyde345 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:19 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:To end any confusion the 12k Nam map I posted does not include sleet. The 3k shows snow & sleet. TT shows a 12k map with snow & sleet which I currently can't post. Its better than the 3k version.

Yes, but with this system there should be very little sleet.
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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:24 pm

If this WRF is finally right it would be incredible. It nailed last week tornado outbreak and the storm totals in the upper midwest. So well see.
From SS at 33nRain board
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 Sn10_acc.us_ne.png.30b094bffeabf734c3e73ed345be75a2

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by hyde345 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:53 pm

@amugs wrote:If this WRF is finally right it would be incredible. It nailed last week tornado outbreak and the storm totals in the upper midwest. So well see.
From SS at 33nRain board
January 18th Winter Storm Looms - Page 5 Sn10_acc.us_ne.png.30b094bffeabf734c3e73ed345be75a2

That's crazy but I would take the 8.7 near me, lol.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:27 am

At 0Z NAM is by far the most aggressive with the warming at 800mb. Let's see if it's right.

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